New I nt egrat ed Modeling Modeling wit h wit h New I nt egrat ed Special Ref erence t o APEI S Special Ref erence t o APEI S ～ Environment al St rat egic Dat abase Engine ～ ～ Environment al St rat egic Dat abase Engine ～ Yuzuru Mat suoka Mat suoka Yuzuru The 9t h AI M I nt ernat ional Workshop The 9t h AI M I nt ernat ional Workshop 12- -14, March 2004 14, March 2004 12 At Ohyama Ohyama Memorial Hall Memorial Hall At Nat ional I nst it ut e f or Environment al St udies, 305- - Nat ional I nst it ut e f or Environment al St udies, 305 8506,Tsukuba, J apan 8506,Tsukuba, J apan
Concept of Environmental Strategic Database St rat egic dat abase f or t he environment al policy decision is composed of t ables of t echnologies, management inst it ut ions, and scenarios, et c. and an int egrat ed module part (I nf erence Engine, SDBE) where t his inf ormat ion are int egrat ed and analyzed. MODEL MODEL Policy Maker’s AI M/ Energy, AI M/ Material AI M/ Energy, AI M/ Material Policy Design & Conf erence AI M/ Trend, AI M/ CGE AI M/ Trend, AI M/ CGE Assessment AI M/ Ecosystem AI M/ Ecosystem Fut ure economic trend Fut ure Case St udy environmental trend SDB Engine Korea I nf erence Engine China I ndia individual RI SPO Scenario individual Populat ion, t echnology GDP, Emission, Thailand Japan Database t echnology Policy Opt ion, Const raint ... Monit oring dat a by I EM Expert Meet ing Discussion on Availabilit y and Barrier of Environment al I nnovat ion St rat egy individual individual individual individual Law, Policy, individual Operat ion, individual individual Ecosyst em individual Energy, Target , Tax, t echnology Management , t echnology t echnology t echnology Wat er, t echnology t echnology Pollut ion, I T t echnology t echnology Financial Mar ket Gover nance Agricult ure, ... ... ... Healt h ... I nst itution and Management I nst itution and Management Technology Technology Adaptation Adaptation Database Database Database Database Database Database
I nt egrat ing module of SDB (SDBE) I nt egrat ing module of SDB (SDBE) The purpose of t he int egrat ing module (I nf erence The purpose of t he int egrat ing module (I nf erence engine of SDB, SDBE) is t o evaluat e and analyze t he engine of SDB, SDBE) is t o evaluat e and analyze t he ef f ect of t he t echnological, sociological and polit ical ef f ect of t he t echnological, sociological and polit ical t ransit ion and int ervent ion f or f ut ure 10- -50 years, 50 years, t ransit ion and int ervent ion f or f ut ure 10 especially in t he f ields of energy supply, especially in t he f ields of energy supply, consumpt ion, mat erial recycling, wat er and land- -use, use, consumpt ion, mat erial recycling, wat er and land environment al burdens and t he correspondence environment al burdens and t he correspondence measures as inclusively as possible, based on measures as inclusively as possible, based on inf ormat ion described by t he t ables. inf ormat ion described by t he t ables.
What SDBE can do and cannot do What SDBE can do and cannot do What SDBE can do: What SDBE can do: • Pert urbat ion analysis of a key concept or Pert urbat ion analysis of a key concept or • idea of environment al innovat ion idea of environment al innovat ion • Generic and int egrat ed approach on Generic and int egrat ed approach on • t echnological, economical and inst it ut ional t echnological, economical and inst it ut ional aspect s of a t arget concept / idea aspect s of a t arget concept / idea What SDBE cannot do: What SDBE cannot do: • Macro Macro- -economic consist ency of analysis economic consist ency of analysis • • Det ailed engineering analysis and capit al Det ailed engineering analysis and capit al • cohort st ruct ures cohort st ruct ures
Two driving f orces and pref erences Two driving f orces and pref erences which change t he f ut ure in SDBE which change t he f ut ure in SDBE • Changes of demands given by demand scenarios • Changes in t echnical and social ef f iciencies given by t rend and policy scenarios • Changes of pref erence given by t rend and policy scenarios I nt egrat ion Environment al module SDBE Load Socio-economic- Service Count er policy t echnological Demand Trend
I nt egrat ion module of SDB (SDBE) Service Demand Socio-economic act ivit y Environ- ment al load Lif e Social Engineering St yle Ef f iciency Ef f iciency Technology I nst it ut ion I mprovement Socio- Economic People’s Trend pref erence Management syst em Count er policy
Mult i calculat ion st ages I nit ializat ion st age: System characteristics at the beginning of the time step are set. Information needed for the setting is state variable values in the previous time step, or from demand scenarios, trend and policy scenarios, etc. Substitution of parameter values. Accompanying calculat ion st age: System characteristic values derived from trend and policy scenarios, etc. are calculated one by one based on the causal relations assumed. As for the cause and effect relationships of the inference, trend and policy scenarios are starting points of the causes. Algebraic calculation stage. Main calculat ion st age: To fulfill demand scenarios, required amounts of quantitative activities in the system are calculated. As for the causal relation of this stage, demand scenarios are the outsets of the causes. Mathematical programming stage.
Element s of SDBE Convent ional CO2 FL_CO2_TP MVGS Gasoline Vehicle FL_NOX_TPMVGS CF_CO2 FL_TP MVGS_TP MV AQ_TPMVGS FL_OI L_TPMVG S Passenger NOx Transport at ion FL_CO2_TP MVHB Hybrid CF_NOX FL_TP MVHB_TP MV by mot or FL_NOX_TPMVH FL_TP MV Gasoline Vehicle Passenger B vehicle FL_OI L_TPMVHB AQ_TPMVHB Transport at ion by CF_TPMV Gasoline mot or vehicle CF_OI L SND_TPMV Vir t ual Elect rici FL_ELE_VRMTSY communicat ion FL_VRMTSYS_TPMV t y S Syst em CF_ELE AQ_VRMTSYS Campaign t o spread t he awareness of adj ust ment f or t ire air pressure SNP_TR_ATP Envir onment al Premium TR_HBCH Const raint on NOx Emission Carbon t ax SNC_NOX_CNST SNP_C2_CTAX Level act ivit y Sales Campaign f or Hybrid Vehicle SNP_TR_HBCH Demand scenario Conf luence Policy/ Trend scenar io Quant it at ive act ivit y wit h st ock Const raint scenar io
Act ivit y •Act ivit y t o produce service or goods. The size of t he act ivit y (act ivit y level) can be quant if ied or measured. •Two kinds of act ivit y: 1)Quant it at ive act ivit y has count ably addit ive met rics 2)Level act ivit y has no count ably addit ive met rics t o describe t he level of act ivit y. •Two kinds of quant it at ive act ivit ies: 1)wit h capit al (st ock), 2) wit hout capit al (st ock) •Quant it at ive act ivit ies are evaluat ed at t he main calculat ion st age. Level act ivit y is evaluat ed at t he accompanied calculat ion st age. •The amount s of input s, out put s and cost s of a quant it at ive act ivit y are proport ional t o t he amount of t he act ivit y. The I / O coef f icient s are prescribed or est imat ed based on ot her variables and scenarios. Level act ivit y is algebraically calculat ed wit h ot her variables and paramet ers of t he syst em. Quantitative activity is calculated by mathematical programming of a minimum cost problem.
Element s of SDBE Convent ional CO2 FL_CO2_TP MVGS Gasoline Vehicle FL_NOX_TPMVGS CF_CO2 FL_TP MVGS_TP MV AQ_TPMVGS FL_OI L_TPMVG S Passenger NOx Transport at ion FL_CO2_TP MVHB Hybrid CF_NOX FL_TP MVHB_TP MV by mot or FL_NOX_TPMVH FL_TP MV Gasoline Vehicle Passenger B vehicle FL_OI L_TPMVHB AQ_TPMVHB Transport at ion by CF_TPMV Gasoline mot or vehicle CF_OI L SND_TPMV Vir t ual Elect rici FL_ELE_VRMTSY communicat ion FL_VRMTSYS_TPMV t y S Syst em CF_ELE AQ_VRMTSYS Campaign t o spread t he awareness of adj ust ment f or t ire air pressure SNP_TR_ATP Envir onment al Premium TR_HBCH Const raint on NOx Emission Carbon t ax SNC_NOX_CNST SNP_C2_CTAX Level act ivit y Sales Campaign f or Hybrid Vehicle SNP_TR_HBCH Demand scenario Conf luence Policy/ Trend scenar io Quant it at ive act ivit y wit h st ock Const raint scenar io
Stock •St ock is at t ached t o a quant it at ive act ivit y and has almost same concept as t hat of capit al. • The st ock decreases t emporally by deplet ion and increases by invest ment . Cost is required f or t he invest ment , and proport ional t o t he invest ment . •Several concept s of st ocks may be exist such as, 1)physical, 2)human, 3)int ellect ual, 4)social inf rast ruct ure, and 6)social relat ion ones. They are t reat ed in t he same st yle, and no dif f erence exist s f rom t he view point of parsing inf ormat ion in t he calculat ion. •The minimum capacit y among t hese st ocks rest rict s t he maximum amount s of t he act ivit y (Leont ief assumpt ion).
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