Evolving EO/IR Commercial UAS Landscape: User Needs and Defense Trends For TTC’s Next -Generation ISR Symposium for Military and Government Arlington, VA. December 15-16, 2016 Ron Stearns, Director, Business Development, Robotics and Unmanned Systems
DoD Aircraft Acquisition through the FYDP With the inclusion of zero-hour rotary-wing programs (e.g. AH-64E, AH-1W to AH-1Z) and target drones (BQM-167, QF-16) there will be 3,037 DoD aircraft deliveries from FY 2015-2021. Rotary-wing aircraft are the major FYDP acquisition driver, owed in large part to operations tempo and airlift demand in United States Central Command Aircraft by Service Branch, 2015-2021 Fixed and Rotary Wing, 2015-2021 Aircraft by Category, 2015-2021 Source: Velocity Group analysis of DoD FY 2017 budget documents
U.S. Air Force, Aircraft Acquisition 2015-2021 Source: Velocity Group analysis of DoD FY2017 budget documents
U.S. Army, Aircraft Acquisition 2015-2021 Source: Velocity Group analysis of DoD FY2017 budget documents
DoN, Aircraft Acquisition 2015-2021 Source: Velocity Group analysis of DoD FY2017 budget documents
DoD: Aircraft with a Baseline EO/IR Turreted Sensor AN/AAQ-11, POP 300, LMT IAI MX-15, OH-58D: 368 MX-20 L-3/ Wescam Alticam AC-10, Hoodtech MTS Family Raytheon 4,739 Aircraft as of calendar 2014
Unmanned Aerial Systems: Commercial Proving Grounds, Airspace Access and Safety-Case Development
Transitions, Time Compression, Part 107 From thousands of commercial UAVs to potentially millions – how can systems scale to accommodate? • Regulatory Production • Moves toward Risk- 5,309 Section 333s May, 2014: FAA based certification. approved as of June • Certified equipage accepts petitions for First six Section 333 Night operations under 8,2016). commercial UAS exemptions are issued Information flow • Section 333. exemption under on Sept. 25, 2014 to six Blanket exemptions for Expedited, online • Command and control Section 333 of FAA television and film test sites and 333 in commercial Modernization and companies. increasing effect. AGL • Operator certifications registration. Part 107 Reform Act of 2012 from 400-800 feet released June 21, 2016 Commercial service providers • • Human-machine interface From inertia to normalized access in two years Airworthiness •
FAA Part 107: Early Takeaways “Progress in science is not linear, but rather exhibits periods of BVLOS will peaceful interludes Gold Rush, but Imagery, data and Commercial UAV usher in punctuated by who are the business analytics size, weight and viable intellectually violent early winners? driving CONOPS reliability must commercial revolutions.” and revenues evolve Group 3 UAS -Thomas Kuhn Increasing: Small businesses, Greater: altitude, Section 333 and mapping use, Hyper localized controller radius, Part 107 are data reselling, > $1mm in operations over building the applicability revenues people safety case (paraphrased from “The Structure of Scientific Revolutions”, 1962).
Risk Classes and Commercial Best Fit • VTOL UAV capabilities in the Risk Class Aircraft Weight Example Aircraft NAS Access 40-80 lb. range are surpassed every 18-24 months. RC -6 15,000 lbs. and up 2020+ • Service providers are purchasing UAVs in twos to RC-5 5,000-15,000 lbs. 2020+ avoid fleet obsolescence • UAVs less than 40 lbs. will RC-4 1,500-5,000 lbs. 2020+ increasingly become a commoditized design space 2019-2020 • Sensors have not met UAVs on RC-3 55-1,500 lbs. Exemptions an equal field – Form Factors, SWaP and costs slowly coming into agreement RC-2 6-55 lbs. Part 107 • Commercial-grade UAV production is not yet ready to RC-1 1-6 lbs. Part 107 scale manufacturing
Commercial UAS Ecosystem Snapshot Analyzed 647 organizations with active pursuit and/or participation in UAS markets and assigned to categories based upon stated core competency Data Processing: video, imagery and analysis RF/Comms: wireless, nav., detection, antennas, satcomms EO/IR: manufacture of all modalities Services: insurance, training, measurement, legal, field support, engineering, test, consultants Embedded Products: GPS, PCB, computers, data storage Electronics: MEMS, cabling, circuits, solar, avionics, IMU, switches, converters, connectors, motion control Components: bearings, power, batteries, fasteners, servos, hydraulics, tooling, chutes, cases, ground support
Market Gap – Commercial Opportunity Canon DSLR = 3-4 Desired Commercial EO/IR Sensor Properties: lbs. $2000 for body, lens, gantry 1. ITAR Free – completely commercially- assembly available, worldwide Humidity, salinity, 2. Dynamically Stabilized particulates are no- 3. Environmentally robust: day-night and fly deal breakers weather-tolerant (to be determined) 4. Independently powered, discreet – not tied to or pulling from UAV power Weight wreaks havoc on small UAS 5. Less than 1.5 lbs. for entire on-board capabilities. A 5-gram weight can system equal 15-minutes of flight time on 6. Much lower power draw a 40-lb, fixed-wing UAV with 20- 7. Store onboard or stream imagery hour endurance 8. Modular, hot-swappable payload(s) Performance penalties are worse Current small camera 9. 3-4 ” diameter gimbal for VTOL UAVs. With maximum mounting, approx. 10. Price Point closer to $4,000 per unit. endurance of roughly 30 minutes $1300
Current Systems and Costs FLIRview Pro SUAS starts at DJI Inspire T600 with thermal imager CloudCap (UTC Aerospace M1-D PTZ UAV Infrared $2,000 Size: 2.48" × 1.75" x $12,000 Systems) TASE 150 Camera 1.75“ Weight: 3.25 -4 oz Aftermarket for $8000 List price: $9,995 1.98 lbs – 4.5” diameter 4.5” diameter ITAR Restricted > 2 lbs. AeroVironment’s i23 gimbal The Xenmuse (DJI) thermal camera on DoD’s RQ -11B Raven starts (FLIR) retails as a standalone for $6,900 at $30,000
UAV Cost Assumptions - Total Market • Cost assumptions for commercially-dedicated Risk Class 2-4 UAVs are derived from representative list pricing Risk Class 4 – Aurora Flight Risk Class 2 – Risk Class 3 – Yamaha’s Sciences Centaur OPV • Representative 12-bladed Price erosion will come in R-Max purely commercial Based on DA-42 GA Aircraft VTOL intended for the Risk Class-2 VTOL imaging derivative - $600,000 new, add industrial imaging. $50,000 market, where barriers to $250,000 for OPV and up 200 lb. MTOW design and manufacture conversion. 3,945 lb. 20-lb. payload are low, and new $170,000/copy MTOW technologies are spiraled 10 minutes flight time about every 24 months These represent the best commercial price/performance/cost ratios
Imagery and Data Capture, Process & Delivery: Developing Drone Layer Commercial Drones can flatten this information flow, with lower investment and technical barriers to aircraft ownership and data capture, but not processing and delivery. Mapping and surveying will remain specialized skill sets. 9x9” imager in C182 Aeryon’s Sky Ranger Woolpert, OH Sewall, ME Merrick, CO Terra RS, WA Wholly-owned fleets, light twins, single heavies, exquisite sensors Aerial Aerial Aerial Aerial Imagery Imagery Will providers choose to own or lease drone Imagery Imagery fleets as projects dictate? Ownership introduces elements of variable costs and unpredictability Drone Imagery Drone Imagery Drone Imagery Drone Imagery Specialized value-added resellers incorporate and layer metadata over imagery VAR VAR VAR VAR Established imagery and information users comprise a roughly $4 billion annual U.S. data Electrical Forestry Government Oil & Gas Agriculture market
Commercial Markets: Data Needs Aggregate needs, determine asset utilization, preposition assets for rapid response
Major Electrical Transmission Infrastructure Corridors stretch for up to 800 miles. There are programmed collections for vegetation encroachment, subsidence and clearances. In some cases these datasets must be collected twice annually. There are emergency needs during brownouts or weather-related damage to the distribution infrastructure. An ISO can lose millions in days if it cannot locate and repair. The added costs come from having to purchase power from outside networks. Even with a crewed Helicopter and an observer dedicated and on call 24/7 there’s no guarantee they’ll be able to fly. A UAV could do the dangerous work in remote areas to isolate unexpected outages, damage and/or hot spots.
Oil and Gas: Major Transmission Infrastructure Density Map of major natural gas and oil pipelines in the U.S. Hazardous liquid lines are in red, gas transmission lines in blue Concentration in Texas, Oklahoma and Gulf states will help to define UAS CONOPS as well as industry and political partnerships This represents a sophisticated, moneyed end-user set. UAS Requirements are understood and waiting for expanded BLoS airspace access Source: Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration
Commercial UAS Value Proposition Fixed fleet operating costs, data driven maintenance and upgrades Take new concepts from design to manufacture under one roof Keep fleet updated with latest technology Improving existing designs for performance, SWaP, and human factors Let you focus on selling your service or platform
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