NCHRP NCHRP 14 14-20A 20A Consequ Consequences of ences of - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

NCHRP NCHRP 14 14-20A 20A Consequ Consequences of ences of Delaye Delayed d Maintenanc Maintenance of e of Highway Highway Assets Assets Carlos M. Chang, Ph.D., P.E .

Topics opics 1. Research Objectives 2. Research Approach 3. Procedure to Quantify the Consequences of Delayed Maintenance 4. Step-by-Step Example for Pavements 5. Summary of the Main Research Contributions 6. Recommendations for Implementation. 2

Resear esearch Objectiv h Objectives es To provide a set of procedures to quantify the consequences of delayed maintenance to the highway infrastructure. The ultimate goal is to integrate the procedures developed for individual asset groups into the asset management process to support better maintenance funding decisions and improve the communication across management levels. 3

Wha hat is Delay t is Delayed ed Mainten Maintenanc ance? e? Delayed maintenance is defined as the work needed to preserve the highway system, but postponed in the agency maintenance program. This definition applies to all the highway asset groups. However, each asset group has unique characteristics in terms of maintenance policies, condition assessment, deterioration rates, service life, and life-cycle costs. 4

Resear esearch A h Appr pproac oach Task 1: Information review and on-line surveys Task 2: Focused phone interviews with selected DOTs Task 3: Perform delayed maintenance scenarios The methods and analytical tools described in the procedures can be adapted to the agency preservation policies, maintenance resources, and performance standards. 5

Ma Main in Ste Steps ps of of t the he Pr Proc oced edur ure e to to Quan Quantify tify th the e Con Consequ sequen ence ces s of of D Delay elayed ed Maint Mainten enan ance ce Step 1: Define the asset preservation policy Step 2: Determine maintenance and budget needs for the asset group Step 3: Conduct delayed maintenance scenarios analyses Pavements, Bridges, Culverts, Guardrails, Lighting, Pavement Markings, and Signs. 6

Framew amewor ork t k to o Inte Integrate the te the Delay Delayed ed Mainten Maintenan ance ce Proced Pr ocedur ures es into into the the A Asse sset t Man Manage gemen ment Pr Proc oces ess 7

Step Step-by by-Step Step Example f Example for or Pavements ements

Step Step 1 1 Define the Define the Asset Asset Pr Preser eserva vation P tion Polic olicy 1.1 Identify the types of maintenance for the asset group 1.2 Establish performance objectives for the asset group 1.3 Formulate decision criteria for maintenance activities 9

1.1 1.1 Identify the T Identify the Types ypes of of Maintenance Maintenance AASHTO 2007, Peshkin et al. 2011 10

1.2 1.2 Esta Establish blish Perf erfor ormance Objectiv mance Objectives es  Maximum International Roughness Index (IRI) of the pavement network  Minimum pavement condition of the pavement network  Minimum Present Serviceability Index (PSI) of the pavement network  Minimum Remaining Service Life (RSL) of the pavement network  Minimum percent of the pavement network in good condition  Maximum percent of the pavement network in poor condition  Minimum Skid Number (SN) of the pavement network  Minimum International Friction Index (IFI) of the pavement network 11

1.3 1.3 For ormula mulate Decision te Decision Crit Criteria eria for or Maintenance Activit Maintenance Activities ies Pre-schedule maintenance based on time-intervals Maintenance activities based on condition trigger values 12

Step Step 2 Det Deter ermine mine Maint Mainten enan ance ce an and d Bud Budge get t Nee Needs ds 2.1 Asses the asset group condition 2.2 Select performance models to forecast the asset group condition and/or remaining life 2.3 Perform the needs analysis 13

2.1 Asses 2.1 Asses Pavement N ement Netw etwor ork Condition k Condition Before Treatment 2.20% 1.70% Current Average Condition Index (CI) 12.80% 65 47.80% 35.60% Very Good Good Fair Poor Very Poor 14

2.2 2.2 Select Select Perf erfor ormanc mance Mod e Models els to to For orecast ecast Condition Condition Deterministic Model 15 Example of family pavement performance curves

2.3 P 2.3 Perf erfor orm m the Ne the Need eds s Ana Analys ysis is to to Iden Identif tify y Maintenance Maintena nce Activities Activities to Meet to Meet the the Objec Objectiv tives es To identify maintenance activities needed to meet the established goals over the period of analysis. This analysis should be based on applying the right treatment, to the right asset, and the right time; in other words, it should reflect applying the “best engineering” practices related to maintenance treatments. 16

Step 3 Step 3 Mainten Maintenance ance Scenar Scenarios ios Anal Analyses yses 3.1 Formulate delayed asset maintenance scenarios 3.2 Perform the delayed maintenance scenarios analyses 3.3 Determine the impact and report the consequences of delayed maintenance 17

3.1 F 3.1 For ormula mulate te Delay Delayed Maintenan ed Maintenance ce Scena Scenarios rios 1. All needs includes the agency-preferred maintenance policy with no funding constraints. A baseline budget is estimated from this scenario 2. Do nothing in which no treatments are applied over the analysis period. 3. Delayed maintenance by a given number of years that varies for each highway asset group due to their expected service life, decision criteria, and consequences of postponing maintenance activities. 4. Budget-driven with limited funds for maintenance activities. 18

Summary of Performance Models and Analytical Tools for the Highway Assets Asset Group Data Performance Models Analytical Tools Pavement network inventory Deterministic Pavement Managemen with condition assessment Probabilistic Systems (PMS) Pavements Bayesian Expert-based model Bridge network inventory with Probabilistic- Markov models. Bridge Management condition assessment Systems (BMS) Bridges Example: Example: NBIAS default NBI data for all 50 states performance models. NBI data on bridge-length Prediction of culvert rating (0-9) Culvert Management culverts with condition using a probabilistic approach Systems (CMS) Culverts assessment similar to the bridge mode. Spreadsheet based analytical tool Guardrail System Transition probability matrices Spreadsheet based Guardrails inventory with condition to model the increase/decrease analytical tool assessment of deficient guardrails. Lighting System inventory with Weibull models for predicting Spreadsheet based condition assessment likelihood of lamp or electrical analytical tool Lighting failure. Straight-line loss of service life based on expected life. Pavement Markings Weibull models for predicting Spreadsheet based inventory with condition pavement marking analytical tool Pavement assessment retroreflectivity failure. Markings Straight-line deterioration model. Sign System inventory with Transition probability matrices Spreadsheet based 19 condition assessment to model the increase/decrease analytical tool Signs of deficient signs.

3.2 3.2 Delay Delayed ed Maint Mainten enan ance ce Sce Scena narios rios Ana Analys yses es Summary of Results 20 20-year analysis period

3.3 De 3.3 Dete termine mine th the e Impa Impact ct of of D Dela elayed ed Mainten Maint enan ance ce an and d Rep epor ort t th the Con e Conse sequ quen ence ces The procedure to quantify the consequences of delayed maintenance of highway assets involves comparing changes in:  Asset condition  Remaining service life  Agency costs in terms of: − Budget needs − Backlogged costs − Asset value 21

Ho How w to R to Repor eport the t the Consequ Consequences of ences of Delay Delayed ed Maintenan Maintenance? ce?

Impact on Pavement Condition 100 90 80 70 Condition Index 60 50 Scenario 1.a - All Needs Scenario 1 – All Needs 40 Scenario 2 - Do Nothing 30 Scenario 3 - Delayed 20 maintenance by 2 yrs 10 Scenario 4 – 0 % of Scenario 4.b - 0 % of Maintenance Budget Needs Maintenance Budget Needs 0 23 Year

Pavem emen ent t Ne Netw twor ork k Co Cond ndition ition At At the the End End of of 20 20 Yea ears 24

Remaining Ser emaining Service Lif vice Life 100 Remaining Life Category (%) 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 <2 years 2-5 years 5-10 years 10-15 years 15-20 years >20 years Remaining Life at the End of Analysis (year 2034) Before Treatment Scenario 1.a - All Needs Scenario 2 - Do Nothing Scenario 3 - Delayed Maintenance by 2 Years Scenario 4.b - 0% of Maintenance Budget Needs 25 20-year analysis period

Budget Needs Budget N eeds Scenario 1.a All Needs 100% 90% 80% Pavement Area, % 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Year Very Poor Poor Fair Good Very Good Scenario 4.b 0% of Maintenance Budget Needs 100% 90% 80% Pavement Area, % 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 26 Year Very Poor Poor Fair Good Very Good