Background on Market Studies • NCAHMA � White papers (continued) � Demand and C/R methodology � Calculating market rent � Selecting comparable properties � Determining market area � Best practices for rural markets � Recommended practices for determining demand Page 21 www.housingonline.com
Background on Market Studies • NCAHMA Resources � Model Standards � Definitions � Best Practices � Index � Terminology � White Papers � www.housingonline.com Page 22 www.housingonline.com
Background on Market Studies • Market Analysis � Historically part of the appraisal process � Scarcity - competitive supply and effective demand � Utility � Key component preceding 3 approaches to value � Many market analysts are appraisers, but not all appraisers are market analysts Page 23 www.housingonline.com
Background on Market Studies • Types of Market Studies � LIHTC � Market Rate Housing � Assisted Living � Student Housing � Military Housing � Different purposes � A use with a site to determine feasibility � A use in search of a site and feasibility � A site in search of a feasible use Page 24 www.housingonline.com
Background on Market Studies • What is a Market Study and what do they do? � A comprehensive forward looking analysis of the housing market in a defined market area. � Users: developers, syndicators, govt. entities, investors • Determine housing needs in specific geography • Specific need for proposed development or rehab � Depth and durability of the market � Supply and demand (demographic) analysis � Marketability of proposed site � Projected outcome - feasibility and conclusions Page 25 www.housingonline.com
Elements of Market Analysis • Housing Market Issues – Low Income Housing as a Special Submarket – Operates within Larger Housing Market – Analysis of the Choices of Market Participants – Tenants, Investors, Lenders Page 26 www.housingonline.com
Elements of Market Analysis Who Lives in Tax Credit Housing? Page 27 www.housingonline.com
Elements of Market Analysis Who Lives in Public Housing? Page 28 www.housingonline.com
Elements of Market Analysis • What is a Market Study? – A comprehensive review of the housing market in a defined market area. Page 29 www.housingonline.com
Elements of Market Analysis • What is its Purpose? – A market study can be used to determine the demand for specific proposed development or to examine the overall condition of an area’s housing market. Page 30 www.housingonline.com
Elements of Market Analysis • Who Uses It? – Project-specific market studies are often used by developers, syndicators, and government entities to determine the appropriateness of a proposed development, whereas market-specific market studies are used to determine what housing needs, if any, exist within a specific geography. – At a minimum, market studies include a review of location, economic conditions, demographics, and existing and proposed housing stock. Page 31 www.housingonline.com
Elements of Market Analysis • Market Study Resources – Model Content Standards – Definitions – Best Practices – www.housingonline.com Page 32 www.housingonline.com
Elements of Market Analysis • Components of a Market Study include: – Executive Summary (II 1-7) – Project Description (II 1-4 + maps, VIII 1-7) – Location and Market Area (IV 11) – Employment and Economy (IV 19-25 + map) – Population and Households (IV 14-18) – Existing Rental Housing Stock (V 1-11, Details: IX, X and XI) – Rental Housing Market and Housing Alternatives (VI 1- 12) – Analysis (VII 1-7) – Conclusions and Recommendations (II 1-7) Page 33 www.housingonline.com
Elements of Market Analysis Scope of Work • Define Study Objectives – Developer needs – HFA or lender requirements • Define Product – Project Layout – Target Markets – Unit Layout – Utility Allowance – Tenant Services – Unit Type – Unit Sizes Page 34 www.housingonline.com
Elements of Market Analysis We ask the client to provide us all of the following if possible • – Proposed unit mix • Breakdown of units by bedroom type and % of AMI – Proposed rents and utility allowance – Type of utilities and the person(s) responsible for paying for the utilities – Proposed amenities – Project type • Family, senior, special needs – Parking type and number of spaces – Location of property, including directions to and a map of the site, if available – Anticipated construction schedule – Pro forma – Plans and specs, if available – Any adverse influences in the area that are known by the developer If the client is unable to provide us with any of the above information, we • typically get this information ourselves. – Sometimes the client wants us to provide them with this information from the market • Unit mix, rents, parking, location, etc. Page 35 www.housingonline.com
Elements of Market Analysis Project Description • – Project name, location, type, and developer • Name of subject, exact location of subject within the market area and state, project type (multi-family, assisted living, senior, single occupancy, etc.) – Project Design • Number of buildings, number of units, number of stories, type of framing and siding, number of bedrooms and baths in each unit, etc. – Unit Features, Project Amenities and Services • For Units: Type of floor coverings, in-unit amenities (refrigerator, range/oven, ceiling fans, etc.), air conditioning, heating, etc. • For Project: Laundry facility, community rooms, picnic/garden area, tennis court, pool, etc. – Parking – Utilities • Utility allowance as well as a list of all provided utilities – Unit Mix, Size, and Rent Structure • All of the above are found by personal/telephone meetings with investors and ordering parties Page 36 www.housingonline.com
Elements of Market Analysis Design/Sketch (III 3) A typical unit sketch will show the basic layout of each unit: – Size, shape, number of rooms, location of each room, etc. – Usually, if there are numerous types of units, a floor plan/sketch will be included for each unit type. Page 37 www.housingonline.com
Elements of Market Analysis Page 38 www.housingonline.com
Elements of Market Analysis • Project Location (IV 1) – City, State, and Exact Location within the State are discussed in the narrative. – Mapping programs such as CoPilot, DeLorme, Site to do Business and Microsoft are typical in the industry. • These are used to show the location on the street, within the neighborhood, within the city, within the county and sometimes within the state. Page 39 www.housingonline.com
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Conducting a Site Analysis Tips and Advice on Field Work Be prepared. Identify site, amenities, comps, etc. before hand • Allow plenty of time • Take lots of pictures • Record field notes on tape or BlackBerry • Use GPS • Talk to lots of people – managers, residents, community • leaders, merchants, kids, etc. Be flexible – open to new ideas • Follow-up with phone calls and e-mails • Send data to sources if requested and permitted by client • Wear neat and comfortable clothes and shoes • Provide ID and purpose of work to extent possible • Give a little, get a lot. Be nice. • Page 41 www.housingonline.com
Conducting a Site Analysis Site Analysis � Is the site suitable for development as affordable rental housing? � Surrounding land uses compatible with housing? � Neighborhood adequately served by facilities and services? � Is it accessible by car and public transportation? � Planned changes in the area that may compromise its suitability in the future? Page 42 www.housingonline.com
Conducting a Site Analysis Site Plan (III 1) • Site characteristics are usually described by: – Size, Shape, Zoning, Frontage, etc. • A typical site plan will show where the following will be located: – Buildings, Parking, Entries, Exits, Amenities, Pool, Landscaping, etc. – Sometimes it will contain utilities, traffic flow and anything else important for the site. Page 43 www.housingonline.com
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Determining Market Area • Primary Market Area “A geographic area from which a property is expected to draw the majority of its residents.” • Secondary Market Area “The portion of a market area that supplies additional support to an apartment property beyond that provided by the primary market area.” Page 45 www.housingonline.com
Determining Market Area • A housing market area is the contiguous area within which households compete for available housing. • Ask yourself if the market area delineated seems reasonable in size and character. Page 46 www.housingonline.com
Determining Market Area Market Area Criteria A reasonable market area is critical as it determines the • geographic scope of other analyses. – It should be realistic in size. – It should reflect the impact of natural and man-made barriers. Beware of radii, county boundaries, or multi-county • boundaries. Seniors market areas are generally larger than those for • family projects. Page 47 www.housingonline.com
Determining Market Area • Delineation of Market Area – Location of Competitive Properties (X-2 + map) – Accessibility (IV-3) – Natural Boundaries (IV-1) – Housing Project Characteristics (III-1) – Market Perceptions – Commuting Patterns (IV-25) – Target Market – Jurisdictional Boundaries (IV-1) – Local Agency Service Boundaries (IV-10 + map) – Non-Geographic Factors (IV-4, IV-8) Page 48 www.housingonline.com
Determining Market Area Case Study Is this a good market area? Page 49 www.housingonline.com
Determining Market Area Case Study How about this market area? Page 50 www.housingonline.com
Determining Market Area Case Study Does this seem reasonable? Page 51 www.housingonline.com
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Economic Context What is the environment in which project will be operating? � Labor Force � Unemployment � At Place Employment � Major Employers Page 53 www.housingonline.com
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Labor Force & Unemployment Trends Annual Unemployment 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Labor Force 339,966 335,683 347,203 351,883 359,953 367,615 371,834 384,457 395,042 Employment 322,996 313,873 319,255 323,069 334,820 346,072 352,943 366,374 372,535 Unemployment 16,970 21,810 27,948 28,814 25,133 21,543 18,891 18,083 22,507 Unemployment Rate Pierce County 5.0% 6.5% 8.0% 8.2% 7.0% 5.9% 5.1% 4.7% 5.7% Washington 5.0% 6.2% 7.3% 7.4% 6.2% 5.5% 4.9% 4.5% 5.3% United States 4.0% 4.7% 5.8% 6.0% 5.5% 5.1% 4.6% 4.6% 5.8% Labor Force and Unemployment Rate 450,000 12.0% 400,000 350,000 10.0% 300,000 Unemployment Rate 8.0% Labor Force 250,000 6.0% 200,000 150,000 4.0% 100,000 2.0% 50,000 0 0.0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Labor Force Pierce County Washington United States Page 57 www.housingonline.com
Labor Force & Unemployment Trends Unemployment Rate Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Pierce County 4.6% 5.2% 5.4% 5.4% 4.9% 5.3% 5.7% 5.7% 5.9% 5.4% 5.8% 6.4% 7.1% 8.8% 9.2% 10.4% Washington 4.7% 5.2% 5.3% 5.1% 4.5% 4.9% 5.1% 5.1% 5.3% 5.0% 5.4% 6.2% 7.1% 8.6% 9.1% 9.7% United States 4.8% 5.4% 5.2% 5.2% 4.8% 5.2% 5.7% 6.0% 6.1% 6.0% 6.1% 6.5% 7.1% 8.5% 8.9% 9.0% Monthly Unemployment Rate 11.0% 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% Labor Force 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Pierce County Washington United States Page 58 www.housingonline.com
At-Place Employment Trends Total At Place Employment Pierce County 300,000 187,836 188,762 192,890 198,830 207,522 212,245214,071 222,225 228,264 231,757 241,451 238,600 238,432 243,081 249,457 257,642 265,674 274,779 274,698 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Q3 Page 59 www.housingonline.com
At-Place Employment Trends Employment Growth Pierce County and US 12,000 15.0% 9,694 10,000 9,104 8,692 10.0% 8,186 8,154 8,032 8,000 6,039 6,376 5,940 3,493 4,723 4,128 5.0% 4,649 Annual New Jobs % Annual Growth 6,000 4,000 0.0% 1,826 2,000 926 -5.0% 0 -10.0% -168 -80 -2,000 -2,851 -4,000 -15.0% 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Q3 Pierce County United States Pierce County Growth Rate Page 60 www.housingonline.com
At-Place Employment by Sector Employment by Sector 2008 Q3 Pierce County and United States 4.0% 5.1% 9.8% 10.1% 13.6% 14.2% 12.9% 8.8% 5.9% 4.8% 2.2% 1.3% 19.1% 19.7% 9.8% 7.2% 5.3% 8.1% 1.2% 0.5% 16.2% 20.3% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% United States Pierce County Page 61 www.housingonline.com
Change in Employment by Sector Annualized Employment Change by Sector, 2001-2008 Q3 Pierce County and United States 4.3% 1.6% 1.9% 2.1% 3.4% 2.2% 1.3% 4.8% 0.9% 0.1% -2.5% 1.0% 0.4% 2.4% -2.7% -0.7% 1.1% 6.2% -0.7% -5.4% 1.4% 1.3% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% United States Pierce County Page 62 www.housingonline.com
Commuting Patterns Travel Time to Work Place of Work Workers 16 years and over # % Workers 16 years and over # % Did not work at home: 72,052 97.0% Worked in state of residence: 73,716 99.2% Less than 5 minutes 1,320 1.8% Worked in county of residence 51,586 69.4% 5 to 9 minutes 4,449 6.0% Worked outside county of residence 22,130 29.8% 10 to 14 minutes 7,024 9.5% Worked outside state of residence 579 0.8% 15 to 19 minutes 8,546 11.5% Total 74,295 100.0% 20 to 24 minutes 11,429 15.4% 25 to 29 minutes 5,577 7.5% 30 to 34 minutes 12,281 16.5% Place of Work 35 to 39 minutes 2,798 3.8% 40 to 44 minutes 3,385 4.6% 45 to 59 minutes 6,985 9.4% 60 to 89 minutes 5,667 7.6% 90 or more minutes 2,591 3.5% Worked at home 2,243 3.0% Total 74,295 In County Outside County Outside State Page 63 www.housingonline.com
Economic Forecast Location; Size of Workforce; Prospects for future Major Employers growth or reduction Any planned expansions in the Market; i.e., BRAC, Economic Expansions New Plants. Is household growth increasing demand for services Major Layoffs or Closing; Vulnerable Sectors of Economic Disruptions Economy Are wages increasing or decreasing Wage Trends Location of Major F u l to n C o u n ty Employers W N 5 8 - I 1 4 1 e t u o S t a R t e R o u t e 1 2 0 e t a t S E m o r y E a s t s id e M e d . C e n t e r N C R C o r p . / / / / / / / / / % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % S t a t e R o u U S H ig hway 23 t e 3 1 6 N W E M S T e c h n o lo g ie s S IT E % % % % % % % % % U S P o s t a l S e r v ic e S c ie n t if ic - A t la n t a In t e r c e p t G r o u p % % % % % % % % % 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 P r im e r ic a F in a n c ia l A t la n t a J o u r n a l 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 B eaver Ru in R d NW R on a ld R e a ga n P k y ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ 0 1 2 m ile s Hwy Page 64 www.housingonline.com
Demographic Context � Population and Household Trends � Demographic Characteristics � Income Characteristics Page 65 www.housingonline.com
Population and Household Trends � What is the nature of recent demographic trends in the market area? � Has the number of households been increasing, decreasing, or remaining about the same? � Are recent past trends expected to continue? � Are demographic projections from a reputable third- party source? � Does building permit activity correlate with household trends? Page 66 www.housingonline.com
Factors Impacting Population and Household Projections Cohort Survival Models Births – Deaths + Migration Economic Growth / Loss Is there an economic stimulus that will impact in-migration or out migration Household Formation The age distribution of the population gives you an indication of number of persons that will form households. Development Patterns Is there infrastructure and land available to support new growth (supply driven demand) Page 67 www.housingonline.com
Definitions Persons residing in the market area Population A group quarters is a place where people live or stay, in a group Group Quarters living arrangement, that is owned or managed by an entity or organization providing housing and/or services for the residents. This is not a typical household-type living arrangement. These services may include custodial or medical care as well as other types of assistance, and residency is commonly restricted to those receiving these services. People living in group quarters are usually not related to each other. Group quarters include such places as college residence halls, residential treatment centers, skilled nursing facilities, group homes, military barracks, correctional facilities, and workers’ dormitories . Population – persons in Group Quarters Household Population A household includes all the people who occupy a housing unit as Households their usual place of residence and a person, or one of the people, in whose name the home is owned, being bought, or rented. If there is no such person present, any household member 15 years old and over can serve as the householder for the purposes of the census. Two types of householders are distinguished: a family householder and a nonfamily householder. A family householder is a householder living with one or more people related to him or her by birth, marriage, or adoption. The householder and all people in the household related to him are family members. A nonfamily householder is a householder living alone or with nonrelatives only. Household Population/ households Average Household Size Page 68 www.housingonline.com
Household Growth - 2007 Projections Change 1990 to 2000 Change 2000 to 2007 Change 2007 to 2012 Pierce County Total Annual Total Annual Total Annual 1990 2000 2007 2012 # % # % # % # % # % # % Population 586,210 700,820 761,211 813,036 114,610 19.6% 11,461 1.8% 60,391 8.6% 8,627 1.2% 51,825 6.8% 10,365 1.3% Group Quarters 23,160 21,510 22,036 22,380 Households 214,655 260,800 284,579 304,811 46,145 21.5% 4,615 2.0% 23,779 9.1% 3,397 1.3% 20,232 7.1% 4,046 1.4% Average HH Size 2.62 2.60 2.60 2.59 Change 1990 to 2000 Change 2000 to 2007 Change 2007 to 2012 Puyallup Market Total Annual Total Annual Total Annual 1990 2000 2007 2012 # % # % # % # % # % # % Population 114,997 155,171 181,719 203,625 40,174 34.9% 4,017 3.0% 26,548 17.1% 3,793 2.3% 21,906 12.1% 4,381 2.3% Group Quarters 1,191 917 950 954 Households 40,601 55,718 65,333 73,215 15,117 37.2% 1,512 3.2% 9,615 17.3% 1,374 2.3% 7,882 12.1% 1,576 2.3% Average HH Size 2.80 2.77 2.77 2.77 2007 data created based on latest information available 4 Quarter 2006 Page 69 www.housingonline.com
Household Growth - 2008 Projections Change 1990 to 2000 Change 2000 to 2008 Change 2008 to 2013 Pierce County Total Annual Total Annual Total Annual 1990 2000 2008 2013 # % # % # % # % # % # % Population 586,210 700,820 788,370 844,098 114,610 19.6% 11,461 1.8% 87,550 12.5% 10,944 1.5% 55,728 7.1% 11,146 1.4% Group Quarters 23,160 21,510 21,866 22,087 Households 214,655 260,800 295,764 318,221 46,145 21.5% 4,615 2.0% 34,964 13.4% 4,371 1.6% 22,457 7.6% 4,491 1.5% Average HH Size 2.62 2.60 2.59 2.58 Change 1990 to 2000 Change 2000 to 2008 Change 2008 to 2013 Puyallup Market Total Annual Total Annual Total Annual 1990 2000 2008 2013 # % # % # % # % # % # % Population 114,997 155,171 193,056 215,448 40,174 34.9% 4,017 3.0% 37,885 24.4% 4,736 2.8% 22,392 11.6% 4,478 2.2% Group Quarters 1,191 917 942 952 Households 40,601 55,718 69,506 77,684 15,117 37.2% 1,512 3.2% 13,788 24.7% 1,723 2.8% 8,178 11.8% 1,636 2.2% Average HH Size 2.80 2.77 2.76 2.76 2008 data created based on latest information available 4 Quarter 2007 Page 70 www.housingonline.com
Household Growth - 2009 Projections Change 1990 to 2000 Change 2000 to 2009 Change 2009 to 2014 Pierce County Total Annual Total Annual Total Annual 1990 2000 2009 2014 # % # % # % # % # % # % Population 586,210 700,820 808,338 866,339 114,610 19.6% 11,461 1.8% 107,518 15.3% 11,946 1.6% 58,001 7.2% 11,600 1.4% Group Quarters 23,160 21,510 21,775 21,912 Households 214,655 260,800 302,924 325,546 46,145 21.5% 4,615 2.0% 42,124 16.2% 4,680 1.7% 22,622 7.5% 4,524 1.5% Average HH Size 2.62 2.60 2.60 2.59 Change 1990 to 2000 Change 2000 to 2009 Change 2009 to 2014 Puyallup Market Total Annual Total Annual Total Annual 1990 2000 2009 2014 # % # % # % # % # % # % Population 114,997 155,171 199,806 222,140 40,174 34.9% 4,017 3.0% 44,635 28.8% 4,959 2.8% 22,334 11.2% 4,467 2.1% Group Quarters 1,191 917 927 931 Households 40,601 55,718 71,761 79,733 15,117 37.2% 1,512 3.2% 16,043 28.8% 1,783 2.9% 7,972 11.1% 1,594 2.1% Average HH Size 2.80 2.77 2.77 2.77 2009 data created based on latest information available 4 Quarter 2008 Page 71 www.housingonline.com
Three years series of projections Household Growth Projection Puyallup Market Pierce Co Market % of Year # Growth Rate # Growth Rate County Based on Q4 2006 Data 2007 1,576 2.3% 4,046 1.4% 39.0% Based on Q4 2007 Data 2008 1,636 2.2% 4,491 2.2% 36.4% based on Q4 2008 date 2009 1,561 2.1% 4,460 1.5% 35.0% Page 72 www.housingonline.com
Building Permits Pierce County Page 73 www.housingonline.com
Senior Household Projections Change 2000 to 2009 Change 2009 to 2014 Puyallup Market Total Annual Total Annual # % # % # % # % Age of Householder 2000 2009 2014 55 to 61 5,344 34.0% 8,984 37.0% 11,054 36.0% 3,640 68.1% 404 5.9% 2,070 23.0% 414 4.2% 62-64 1,899 12.1% 3,341 13.7% 4,174 13.6% 1,442 75.9% 160 6.5% 833 24.9% 167 4.6% 65 to 74 4,768 30.3% 7,100 29.2% 9,697 31.6% 2,332 48.9% 259 4.5% 2,597 36.6% 519 6.4% 75 to 84 2,939 18.7% 3,647 15.0% 4,269 13.9% 708 24.1% 79 2.4% 622 17.0% 124 3.2% 85 and older 783 5.0% 1,242 5.1% 1,485 4.8% 459 58.6% 51 5.3% 243 19.6% 49 3.6% 15,733 100.0% 24,314 100.0% 30,679 100.0% 8,581 54.5% 953 5.0% 6,365 26.2% 1,273 4.8% Householders 55+ 10,389 15,330 19,625 4,941 47.6% 549 4.4% 4,295 28.0% 859 5.1% Householders 62 + 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 55 to 61 62-64 65 to 74 75 to 84 85 and older 2000 2009 2014 Page 74 www.housingonline.com
Demographic Characteristics � Age Distribution of Population � Family type and proportion of one-person households � Owner / Renter Distribution � Permanent Renters Page 75 www.housingonline.com
Age Distribution Pierce County Puyallup Market Number Percent Number Percent 2009 Age Distribution 85> Under 5 years 55,974 7.0% 14,265 7.3% 75-84 5-9 years 54,219 6.8% 14,031 7.2% 65-74 10-14 years 55,275 6.9% 14,739 7.5% 15-17 years 34,495 4.3% 9,263 4.7% 62-64 18-20 years 33,902 4.3% 7,740 4.0% 60-61 21-24 years 41,641 5.2% 9,472 4.8% 55-59 25-34 years 113,438 14.2% 26,405 13.5% 50-54 35-44 years 113,895 14.3% 29,002 14.8% 45-49 45-49 years 60,696 7.6% 15,546 7.9% Age 35-44 50-54 years 57,844 7.3% 14,274 7.3% 55-59 years 49,346 6.2% 11,877 6.1% 25-34 60-61 years 15,772 2.0% 3,848 2.0% 21-24 TOTAL Non-Senior 686,497 86.1% 170,462 87.1% 18-20 15-17 62-64 years 23,657 3.0% 5,773 3.0% 10-14 65-74 years 48,317 6.1% 11,371 5.8% 5 - 9 75-84 years 27,468 3.4% 5,794 3.0% 85 and older 11,273 1.4% 2,216 1.1% < 4 TOTAL Senior 110,715 13.9% 25,154 12.9% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% % Pop TOTAL 797,212 100.0% 195,616 100.0% Puyallup Market Pierce County Median Age 35 35 Page 76 www.housingonline.com
Household Type Pierce County Puyallup Market # % # % Married w/ Child 76,385 25.6% 21,515 30.6% Married w/o Child 82,597 27.7% 20,887 29.7% Male hhldr w/ Child 8,360 2.8% 2,116 3.0% Female hhldr w/ Child 22,775 7.6% 4,851 6.9% Non Married Households 35,243 11.8% 7,564 10.8% w/o Children Living Alone 73,232 24.5% 13,332 19.0% Total 298,592 100.0% 70,265 100.0% Page 77 www.housingonline.com
Owner Renter Breakdown Pierce County 2000 2009 2014 Housing Units Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Owner Occupied 165,598 63.5% 193,626 64.8% 209,655 65.3% Renter Occupied 95,202 36.5% 104,966 35.2% 111,235 34.7% Total Occupied 260,800 100.0% 298,592 100.0% 320,890 100.0% Total Vacant 16,260 21,436 23,036 TOTAL UNITS 277,060 320,028 343,926 Puyallup Market 2000 2009 2014 Housing Units Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Owner Occupied 41,207 74.0% 52,514 74.7% 58,481 74.9% Renter Occupied 14,511 26.0% 17,751 25.3% 19,590 25.1% Total Occupied 55,718 100.0% 70,265 100.0% 78,071 100.0% Total Vacant 2,561 3,776 4,116 TOTAL UNITS 58,279 74,041 82,187 2009 Tenure Breakdown 2009 Tenure Breakdown Puyallup Market Pierce County Renter Occupied 25% Renter Occupied Owner 35% Occupied 65% Owner Occupied 75% Page 78 www.housingonline.com
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Senior vs. Total Owner/ Renter Breakdown Pierce County Puyallup Market 2009 Households Number Percent Number Percent Owner Occupied 193,626 64.8% 52,514 74.7% Renter Occupied 104,966 35.2% 17,751 25.3% Total Occupied 298,592 100.0% 70,265 100.0% Total Vacant 21,436 3,776 TOTAL UNITS 320,028 74,041 Senior Households 62 and over Pierce County Puyallup Market 2009 Households Number Percent Number Percent Owner Occupied 53,738 78.2% 12,849 83.8% Renter Occupied 14,939 21.8% 2,481 16.2% Total Occupied 68,677 100.0% 15,330 100.0% Page 80 www.housingonline.com
I ncome Characteristics � Total I ncom e � I ncom e by Tenure � Senior vs. Total I ncom e � I ncom e by Age of Householder Page 81 www.housingonline.com
Pierce County Puyallup Market Number Percent Number Percent less than $25,000 52,248 17.5% 8,348 11.9% $25,000 $29,999 14,254 4.8% 2,759 3.9% $30,000 $34,999 15,041 5.0% 3,106 4.4% $35,000 $39,999 15,330 5.1% 3,137 4.5% $40,000 $44,999 15,266 5.1% 3,309 4.7% $45,000 $49,999 15,017 5.0% 3,332 4.7% $50,000 $59,999 27,425 9.2% 6,386 9.1% $60,000 $74,999 36,507 12.2% 9,603 13.7% $75,000 $99,999 44,413 14.9% 12,769 18.2% $100,000 $124,999 28,932 9.7% 8,372 11.9% $125,000 $149,999 13,760 4.6% 3,928 5.6% Total I ncome $150,000 $199,999 11,317 3.8% 3,167 4.5% $200,000 over 9,081 3.0% 2,049 2.9% Total 298,592 100.0% 70,265 100.0% Median Income $58,073 $67,429 2009 Household Income by Area 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% <$25K $25- $30- $35- $40- $45- $50- $60- $75- $100- $125- $150- $200+K $29K $34K $39K $44K $49K $59K $74K $99K $124K $149K $199K Pierce County Puyallup Market Page 82 www.housingonline.com
Puyallup Mkt Renter Households Owner Households Number Percent Number Percent less than $25,000 4,565 25.7% 3,783 7.2% $25,000 $29,999 1,234 7.0% 1,525 2.9% $30,000 $34,999 1,389 7.8% 1,717 3.3% $35,000 $39,999 1,403 7.9% 1,734 3.3% $40,000 $44,999 1,480 8.3% 1,829 3.5% $45,000 $49,999 1,131 6.4% 2,201 4.2% $50,000 $59,999 2,167 12.2% 4,219 8.0% $60,000 $74,999 1,616 9.1% 7,986 15.2% $75,000 $99,999 1,224 6.9% 11,545 22.0% $100,000 $124,999 803 4.5% 7,570 14.4% $125,000 $149,999 317 1.8% 3,611 6.9% I ncome by $150,000 $199,999 256 1.4% 2,911 5.5% $200,000 over 165 0.9% 1,884 3.6% Tenure Total 17,751 100.0% 52,514 100.0% Median Income $40,912 $77,737 2009 Household Income by Tenure 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 <$25K $25- $30- $35- $40- $45- $50- $60- $75- $100- $125- $150- $200+K $29.9K $34.9K $39.9K $44.9K $49.9K $59.9K $74.9K $99.9K $124.9K $149.9K $199.9K Renter Households Owner Households Page 83 www.housingonline.com
Payallup Mkt Total Income Income HHldrs 62+ Number Percent Number Percent less than $24,999 8,348 11.9% 3,555 23.2% $25,000 $29,999 2,759 3.9% 1,108 7.2% $30,000 $34,999 3,106 4.4% 1,130 7.4% $35,000 $39,999 3,137 4.5% 930 6.1% $40,000 $44,999 3,309 4.7% 816 5.3% $45,000 $49,999 3,332 4.7% 725 4.7% $50,000 $59,999 6,386 9.1% 1,249 8.1% $60,000 $74,999 9,603 13.7% 1,714 11.2% $75,000 $99,999 12,769 18.2% 1,693 11.0% $100,000 $124,999 8,372 11.9% 998 6.5% $125,000 $149,999 3,928 5.6% 506 3.3% Senior vs. Total $150,000 $199,999 3,167 4.5% 467 3.0% $200,000 over 2,049 2.9% 439 2.9% I ncome Total 70,265 100.0% 15,330 100.0% Median Income $67,429 $45,866 2009 Total Income and Householder 62 and Older Income 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% <$20K $20- $25- $30- $35- $40- $45- $50- $60- $75- $100- $125- $150- $24.9K $29.9K $34.9K $39.9K $44.9K $49.9K $59.9K $74.9K $99.9K $124.9K $149.9K $199.9K Total Income Sr 62+ Income Page 84 www.housingonline.com
I ncome by Age of Householder Total 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75 + Total Households 70,265 3,212 11,856 14,894 15,974 12,342 7,106 4,880 less than $25,000 8,355 721 875 957 1,096 1,610 1,536 1,559 $25,000-$34,999 5,859 517 869 827 926 671 1,113 936 $35,000-$49,999 9,760 691 2,006 1,825 1,645 1,561 1,160 872 $50,000-$74,999 15,997 854 3,218 3,510 3,435 2,749 1,439 791 $75,000-$99,999 12,763 250 2,551 3,588 3,172 2,044 908 252 $100,000-$124,999 8,378 115 1,405 2,107 2,603 1,579 419 149 $125,000-$149,999 3,932 36 521 1,020 1,291 766 188 112 $150,000-$199,999 3,173 28 278 741 1,066 806 168 86 $200,000-$250,000 933 0 81 168 345 252 51 37 $250,000 or more 1,114 0 52 152 394 304 125 87 Median Income $67,446 $43,187 $67,410 $77,282 $81,968 $71,094 $46,130 $34,419 Median Household Income by Age of Householder $90,000 $81,968 $85,000 $77,282 $80,000 $71,094 $75,000 $67,446 $67,410 $70,000 $65,000 Median Household Income $60,000 $55,000 $46,130 $50,000 $43,187 $45,000 $40,000 $34,419 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 Total 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75 + Age of Householder Page 85 www.housingonline.com
Rental Market Trends & Conditions • Your field survey starts with the right Primary Market Area (IV-11-13) • Use 2000 Census data to establish housing profile of PMA (IV-15, XI-5,15) • Profile number of housing units, owner/renter mix and number of vacant housing units (IV-15) • Evaluate building permits for recent activity (IV-17) • Other important housing characteristics are rental units by type, gross rents, year of construction and rent overburdened (XI-14-16) Page 86 www.housingonline.com
Housing Unit Building Permits for: Hinds County, MS 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 1,663 873 819 935 1,027 1,148 629 969 793 777 Total Units Units in Single- 775 606 663 639 727 744 629 779 769 745 Family Structures Units in All Multi- 888 267 156 296 300 404 0 190 24 32 Family Structures Housing Unit Building Permits for: Jackson, MS 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 1,068 132 251 398 393 489 77 329 247 488 Total Units Units in Single- 184 113 95 102 93 85 77 139 223 456 Family Structures Units in All Multi- 884 19 156 296 300 404 0 190 24 32 Family Structures Page 87 www.housingonline.com
Rental Market Trends & Conditions • Existing housing conditions dictate extent of field survey • Field survey should be comprehensive to evaluate housing continuum (LIHTC, older/newer market rate, gov. sub., luxury), current conditions and identify comparable properties (Section V) • All Tax Credit properties should be surveyed regardless of concept (V-5) • For-rent single-family homes may need to be surveyed to measure market rents Page 88 www.housingonline.com
Rental Market Trends & Conditions Field surveys will consist of various property types: � Comparable property is representative of the rental housing choices of the subject’s Primary Market Area and is similar in construction, size, amenities, or age to the subject. � Competitive property is comparable to subject and competes at similar rent levels, and tenant profile, such as age, family or income. Page 89 www.housingonline.com
Rental Market Trends & Conditions Purpose of identification of comparable properties: � Evaluate the Primary Market Area (PMA) or the need for a Secondary Market Area (SMA) � Evaluate subject’s market position � Determine achievable market rents for subject Page 90 www.housingonline.com
Rental Market Trends & Conditions • Analyze survey results to identify trends/issues (V-1-4) • Analysis of unit distributions suggests product gaps (V-1) • Age of conventional housing surveyed shows where vacancy problems might exist (V-2) • Consider recently renovated properties; older properties are often candidates for renovations with Tax Credits (V-2) • Evaluate existing and proposed rent levels; supplements achievable market rent analysis (V-3) Page 91 www.housingonline.com
Rental Market Trends & Conditions • Consider quality of existing properties; strong correlation between quality and vacancies (V-4) • Government-subsidized properties may represent direct competition depending on proposed rent structure (V-4) • HUD Sections 8, 236, 811, 202, Public Housing, RD 515 (with and w/o Rental Assistance) Page 92 www.housingonline.com
Rental Market Trends & Conditions Field survey of comparable market-rate and Tax Credit properties includes (V-5, VI): • Rents, rent premiums, concessions • Tenant profile/targeted market • Physical characteristics • Design • Age and rent class • Quality/condition • Location/accessibility Page 93 www.housingonline.com
Shopping Comparable Properties • Identify historic occupancy/rent change • If recent construction, get lease-up performance • Identify turnover trends (seasonal) • Identify issues to specific target market • Should have a comprehensive field sheet Page 94 www.housingonline.com
Rental Market Trends & Conditions Comparable properties (Senior) � Family properties with high % of seniors � Senior amenities – product design � May need to expand search beyond market area � Know age restrictions � Proximity to senior center, medical, transportation � Identify services (beware of assisted living facilities) � More price sensitive than younger renters � Suburban versus rural demand drivers Page 95 www.housingonline.com
Rental Market Trends & Conditions Comparable properties (Rehabs) � Cost per unit spent or will be spent • Kitchens, baths, floors • Get in as many units as possible � Compare rehabs to rehabs if possible � Get previous and current occupancy � Get previous and current rents � Was property repositioned • Previous marketability issues? � How many current residents are qualified? Page 96 www.housingonline.com
Rental Market Trends & Conditions Comparable properties (Rural) • Use the apartments that exist in PMA • Trailers • SF homes • Neighboring town or market area • Similar population • Similar employment centers with similar wages • Similar home prices Page 97 www.housingonline.com
Rental Market Trends & Conditions Classify type of rural market: High propensity Low propensity � Close to Suburban/Metro � Removed from CBD / urban core � Well defined central towns � No defined central towns � Transportation infrastructure � Poor linkages to infrastructure � Well diversified economies � No diversification or weak job base � Recreational amenities � No recreational amenities � Technology /Schools � No technology � Strong pop and HH growth � Stagnant pop and HH growth � Job creation � No job creation � Subsidized inventory & tenants Page 98 www.housingonline.com
Rental Market Trends & Conditions • Tax Credit properties should compare year built/renovations, location, occupancy, target market, tenant profile, wait lists, amenities, unit sizes, baths and rents by AMHI to subject (V-5-10) • Verify number of Housing Choice Vouchers or other rental assistance • Should make an “apples to apples” rent comparison; acquire utility allowances to adjust (V-6) • Identification of targeted AMHI is critical; note maximum allowable income levels (V-6) Page 99 www.housingonline.com
Rental Market Trends & Conditions • Identify “pipeline” product (V-10) • Verify Tax Credit allocation lists; current economic conditions are eliminating allocated properties • Consider for-sale market as competition (V-10,11) • Bigger issue during earlier part of decade • Note first-time homebuyer programs • New for-sale product generally offers more direct competition than existing homes (better designs, energy efficient, less maintenance) Page 100 www.housingonline.com
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