Nat Nation ional al Long Long T Ter erm m Perspe Per spectives ctives Stu Studie dies: s: Les Lessons sons Lear Learnt nt
OUTLINE 1. NLTPS: the methodological approach/Long Term Strategic Thinking Process 2. Lessons Learnt
Why a Foresight Exercise is needed • In today's world the only certainty is the rapidity of change and the high number of uncertainties in all areas, particularly in technology sector. • We must not be focused only in managing the present because the future will be determined by our actions and inactions of today. It is therefore crucial before making decisions, that we think ahead, we commit ourselves in the analysis of "what if" (what will happen if ...) and explore the different possible futures (scenarios). • It is important to have a national wide project, an agenda for society in which people identify that they are part of this and want to make their daily lives. This commitment and "buy-in" for a national agenda are crucial. • A foresight exercise a process of reflection and a key instrument for decision making • Development is not a matter of poverty management but of producing wealth!
Why a Foresight Exercise is needed African elites do not appropriate their problems which caused them to lose an opportunity to learn with the problems they face in their development process. A Foresight exercise study allows us to take ownership of our problems , identify them and find solutions. This process of appropriation, identification and solution of our problems is also a learning process. This is the only way to train ourselves to find solutions to our development problems and to learn how to innovate, to find African solutions, to build and improve our ability to lead the process of national transformation. Therefore, we can't outsource our development to external partners . We must take over the management of our national development program. Our "leadership" should take the lead in any foresight exercise to build the future
• Data gathering and analysis Analyze the Long Term Strategic • SWOT Analysis Operating • Key factors that will shape the Thinking Process future environment • Key uncertainties/ « what if » • Scenarios (exploratory) (Where are we?) Formulate Vision Where do we go from here? Strategic • Identify key strategic issues Analysis • Formulate strategic options for each strategic issues How did we • Strategic focus / Key There are times in the history of get here? Priorities a nation when the people and their leaders should ask Implementation questions about the future of • Strategic Plans / the Nation: Where are we? Projects What is the role Where do we go from here? • Implementation of each and How do we get there? What is • Evaluation & every one of us the role of each and every one Monitoring as citizens? of us as citizens?
THE CONTEXT OF STRATEGY Vision/ Strengths/ Goals Weaknesses Where do we What are we want to go? capable of doing? Opportunities/ Threats What are the possibilities and constraints in the external environment?
Strategy Formulation Process Strategic Issue 1 Strategic Issue 2 Strategic Issue 5 Strategic Options Evaluation Feasibility: Impact/Rewards Risks: - Resources - Economic - Uncertainties - Change - Social - Technical, Feasibility - Environmental - Competitive, - Capabilities Political Strategic Focus/Key Priorities Actions plans/Projects Implementation
NLTPS Exercises: Lessons Learnt Foresight exercise is about changing mindset: Not enough for consultants to do the work and handover the results to the stakeholders African elites have delegated their responsibilities as development promoter to donors and consulting firms. Nowadays the question of ownership of the foresight exercise at all the level, public and private actors mainly by political elites, is central The effective ownership of the exercise by the political elite is very important. We had the tendency to believe that we just simply to undertake a foresight exercise and handover it the Cabinet and the technicians to implement it. This does not work. The experience of NLTPS shows that it is essential that the country's leadership be part of the process. It is about building the future and they must be committed and should lead the process. They must help to develop and select the transformation agenda and lead the people and the state apparatus to sustain and build the future. The articulation between the technical level and the political level is also important But if we continue to let the prospective to technicians ... so we'll stay in failure
NLTPS: LESSONS LEARNT Ability to quickly respond to A prospective study is necessary but is not sufficient • • change and reform The people with the power to act must be engaged • Participatory: engaging all the stakeholders • Strategic rather than tactical (Emphasis on • Transformation) The Development management • team (Government, private Not simply a straightforward exercise • sector, civil society) have to Readiness to change change • Think the unthinkable and open our mind • Creativity is a must • Effective Strategy: • We must be willing to change • Clear and decisive objectives • and to experiment and try things Internal consistency • small scale to see if it works in this Motivational impact • case and generalize. The Compatibility with the environment • planning system must be flexible Appropriate in the light of resources and able to change to adapt • when circumstances require. For Flexibility • this it is important to establish an Risk • M & E system that tracks the decisions and changes in End the exercise is the beginning • underlying assumptions. Building a constituency for change • Communicating •
NLTPS Exercices: Lessons Learnt We must be ambitious in formulating our vision i.e. choosing where we want to go as a nation, and • more importantly, we must be committed to making it happen. Driving a foresight exercise involves an emotional commitment It is important in the implementation of prospective studies to make progress ( Quick wins ) to show • that one is in the right direction. This leads to a wider adherence to the strategy proposed by the prospective study. In a foresight exercise the problem of social cohesion , and the different development dynamics of • regions has to be taken in account,
Foresight Exercises: Lessons Learnt • How the leadership responded to the NLTPS reports Mauritius: we must avoid the bad scenario to happen • Guinea-Bissau: good participation of the elite but no change of behavior • in managing the country Cote d’Ivoire : collective disbelief: “this can not happen in CI • Zimbabwe: Ostrich approach rewrite the study • Cabo Verde: first reaction, re-write the future by one consultant. Things • changed completely when a new leadership engage the Government for change
Y O U Building the future desired by all, TODAY Don’t let the future happen OBRIGADO H A N K T
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