Monitoring, modelling and managing land use change on a large scale - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Monitoring, modelling and managing land use change on a large scale Hermann Lotze-Campen Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) ALTER-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 07 Sep 2008

What makes God laugh? – Tell him about your future plans! (Woody Allen)

Motivation • Agriculture: between economy and environment • Land use: food, fibre, forest, freshwater, fuel, fertile soils, flora&fauna • Global vs. regional perspective • Goal: long-term, global, integrated, spatially explicit approach to land use management • "Gardening the world in the anthropocene" • Biodiversity is a social issue! • Managing <- Modelling <- Monitoring

Some principles of economic thinking • Economics is not business management! • Demand and supply: utility and profit maximization • Prices as a major indicator for scarcity • There is no such thing as a free lunch! • Opportunity costs / shadow prices • Relative prices and costs, substitution • Competition, trade, efficiency • Investment, technological change, growth • Regulation, rules, policy

The Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model Time Step: Annual Object: Grid Cell (PFT fractional areas) Climate/ Weather Vegetation Population Time Step: Daily Dynamics Object: Plant Functional Type Tissue Turnover (PFT) average individual Tissue Allocation Light Competition o � 0.5 Mortality Photosynthesis Establishment PFT Environmental Constraints Maintenance Disturbance (Fire) Respiration Water balance Information flow Carbon & Water Fluxes Water fluxes only Land Use

Income vs. Food consumption 16 Climate change (GCM) 4000 14 Demography 12 3500 10 3000 Billion 8 2500 Kcal / Cap / Day 6 kcal = 802 * gdp^(0.142327) [R^2 = 0.66] 2000 4 1500 2 Income and diet 1000 0 500 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 0 Low fertility, low mortality High fertility, high mortality Central fertility, central mortality ECHAM4 (Lutz et al. 2001) 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 GDP / Cap / Year kcal_cap (105 countries, 1990/2000) kcal_cap (fitted values) Socioeconomic inputs CCSR Food/Energy demand, production costs -200 -100 0 +100 +200 mm Crop yields Land & Water constraints (1) MAgPIE – a global land use optimisation model • 2200 grid cells (3° resolution), 10 economic regions Sugar beets Oilseeds Cereals • 30 production activities (13 crops, livestock, Pulses irrigation, bioenergy, land conversion) • rotational constraints LPJ (50x50 km grid) • internal feed balances, international trade Biophysical inputs • (quasi-)endogenous technological change • Lotze-Campen et al., in press

Income vs. Food consumption 16 Climate change (GCM) 4000 14 Demography 12 3500 10 3000 Billion 8 2500 Kcal / Cap / Day 6 kcal = 802 * gdp^(0.142327) [R^2 = 0.66] 2000 4 1500 2 Income and diet 1000 0 500 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 0 Low fertility, low mortality High fertility, high mortality Central fertility, central mortality ECHAM4 (Lutz et al. 2001) 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 GDP / Cap / Year kcal_cap (105 countries, 1990/2000) kcal_cap (fitted values) Socioeconomic inputs CCSR Food/Energy demand, production costs -200 -100 0 +100 +200 mm Crop yields Land & Water constraints Sugar beets Oilseeds Cereals Pulses LPJ (50x50 km grid) Biophysical inputs Land use pattern Lotze-Campen et al., in press

Income vs. Food consumption 16 Climate change (GCM) 4000 14 Demography 12 3500 10 3000 Billion 8 2500 Kcal / Cap / Day 6 kcal = 802 * gdp^(0.142327) [R^2 = 0.66] 2000 4 1500 2 Income and diet 1000 0 500 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 0 Low fertility, low mortality High fertility, high mortality Central fertility, central mortality ECHAM4 (Lutz et al. 2001) 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 GDP / Cap / Year kcal_cap (105 countries, 1990/2000) kcal_cap (fitted values) Socioeconomic inputs CCSR Food/Energy demand, production costs -200 -100 0 +100 +200 mm Crop yields Land & Water constraints Sugar beets Oilseeds Cereals Pulses Shadow LPJ (50x50 km grid) prices Biophysical inputs Lotze-Campen et al., in press

Income vs. Food consumption 16 Climate change (GCM) 4000 14 Demography 12 3500 10 3000 Billion 8 2500 Kcal / Cap / Day 6 kcal = 802 * gdp^(0.142327) [R^2 = 0.66] 2000 4 1500 2 Income and diet 1000 0 500 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 0 Low fertility, low mortality High fertility, high mortality Central fertility, central mortality ECHAM4 (Lutz et al. 2001) 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 GDP / Cap / Year kcal_cap (105 countries, 1990/2000) kcal_cap (fitted values) Socioeconomic inputs CCSR Food/Energy demand, production costs -200 -100 0 +100 +200 mm Crop yields 3.0 Required Land & Water constraints FAO 1970-95 technical Baseline 2.5 change until Low_wat_save Sugar beets Baseline+area 2050 Oilseeds Cereals 2.0 Pulses % per year 1.5 LPJ (50x50 km grid) 1.0 0.5 Biophysical inputs 0.0 World AFR CPA EUR FSU LAM MEA NAM PAO PAS SAS Lotze-Campen et al., in press

Scenario: 100 EJ Bioenergy in 2050 Cropland expansion max 250 mio. ha (~18%) Lotze-Campen et al., preliminary results

Scenario: 100 EJ Bioenergy in 2050 No cropland expansion Lotze-Campen et al., preliminary results

A conceptual structure of a Sustainability Geoscope Purpose (Synthesis nodes) Global-scale research and Public discourse and Policy and decision- integration communication making Issues Biodiversity (Thematic nodes) Insitutions Economy Values Resource use Danube river Great Aral sea Yellow plains river Case studies Sahel (Regional nodes) Ama- zonia Kala- Indonesia hari forest Lotze-Campen/Reusswig/Stoll-Kleemann, GAIA 2008

Geoscope implementation: Building upon the existing World Network of Biosphere Reserves and Biosphere Reserve Integrated Monitoring (BRIM) Lotze-Campen/Reusswig/Stoll-Kleemann, GAIA 2008

• Biosphere Reserves combine nature conservation and land use • Mission: BRs are experimental sites for sustainable development • An initial infrastructure for Biosphere Integrated socio-ecological Monitoring (BRIM) already exists Source: UNESCO MAB

Land use management • Settlement/infrastructure, forest, cropland, pasture, unused/protected • From local to global • Instruments: taxes, subsidies, tradeable permits, regulations and planning • Global public goods: international compensation

Our head is round – so that our thinking can change directions. (Francis Picabia)

Challenges in large-scale land-use modelling • Linking monetary and biophysical processes, flows and data • Different thematic scales (e.g. vegetable oil vs. physiologically different oil crops) • Different temporal scales (meaning of "long-term" vs. "short-term" in biophysical models and economic models) • Different spatial scales (point observations vs. spatial grids vs. polygons/administrative units) • The treatment of technological change (exogenous vs. endogenous) • Optimisation mode in economics vs. time-step mode in natural science • Recursive dynamics vs. intertemporal optimisation • The treatment of human behaviour, values, institutions • Availability of compatible data across scales and themes

Key messages Research • Sustainable bioenergy production in 2050: ~50-150 ExaJoule? • Land availability for agricultural expansion (pasture?) • Role of technological change (ag. production, energy conversion) • Role of international trade • Climate change and yields (CO2 fertilization?) • Food demand patterns? Policy • Potential of bioenergy for rural development • Critical assessment of bioenergy subsidies (ag. policy, climate policy) • Global land use management (land use planning, land rights) • Forests/Biodiversity as a global common good • Water management and pricing

(3) Sustainability Geoscope: a concept for monitoring global change and sustainable development Goals: Improve the empirical base for Global Change research and Sustainability Science Develop a "Macroscope" for monitoring and representing crucial parts and processes of the Earth System in the Anthropocene Concept: A global framework for comparative regional case studies on human actions affecting sustainability Regional nodes covering hot-spots of human-nature interactions Thematic nodes covering key research issues Multiple thematic nodes to be integrated at each regional node Multiple regional nodes to be covered by each thematic node Lucht and Jaeger, NKGCF 2001; Lotze-Campen et al. GAIA 2002, 2008

Required rates of technical change in agriculture (2005-2055) - Baseline plus various biofuel scenarios - 3.0 2.5 2.0 % per year 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 World AFR CPA EUR FSU LAM MEA NAM PAO PAS SAS FAO 1970-95 Baseline Biof 100EJ Biof + area Biof + trade Lotze-Campen et al., preliminary results