Modelling small population outbreaks
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sha1_base64="A9UzQ6vRa9KjBcsXUPEkYBsX+EQ=">ACyXicjVHLSsNAFD2Nr1pfVZdugkVwVRIRdFl0I7ipYB/QFplMp3VsXiYTsRZX/oBb/THxD/QvDOmoAuxNyS5c+45Z+6d8WJfpspx3gvW3PzC4lJxubSyura+Ud7caqZRlnDR4JEfJW2PpcKXoWgoqXzRjhPBAs8XLW90qutO5GkMgov1TgWvYANQzmQnCmCmt0hCwJ2Va64VceE/XdSQR71qPyGLvqIwJEhgEAIRbkPhpSeDlw4iAnrYUJYQpk0dYFHlEibEUsQgxE6ou+QVp0cDWmtPVOj5rSLT29CSht7pImIl1Cud7NPTPOGv3Le2I8dW9j+nu5V0CowjWh/+mzFl1ehaFAY7NDJmig2ip+O5S2ZORXdu/5hKkUNMmM7VE8o50Y5PWfbaFIzuz5bZuofhqlRveY5N8On7nK2C24eVF2n6l4cVmon+VUXsYNd7N9HqGM9TRIO8bPOMFr9a5dWvdWw/fVKuQa7bxK6ynL7mkZk=</latexit> <latexit sha1_base64="A9UzQ6vRa9KjBcsXUPEkYBsX+EQ=">ACyXicjVHLSsNAFD2Nr1pfVZdugkVwVRIRdFl0I7ipYB/QFplMp3VsXiYTsRZX/oBb/THxD/QvDOmoAuxNyS5c+45Z+6d8WJfpspx3gvW3PzC4lJxubSyura+Ud7caqZRlnDR4JEfJW2PpcKXoWgoqXzRjhPBAs8XLW90qutO5GkMgov1TgWvYANQzmQnCmCmt0hCwJ2Va64VceE/XdSQR71qPyGLvqIwJEhgEAIRbkPhpSeDlw4iAnrYUJYQpk0dYFHlEibEUsQgxE6ou+QVp0cDWmtPVOj5rSLT29CSht7pImIl1Cud7NPTPOGv3Le2I8dW9j+nu5V0CowjWh/+mzFl1ehaFAY7NDJmig2ip+O5S2ZORXdu/5hKkUNMmM7VE8o50Y5PWfbaFIzuz5bZuofhqlRveY5N8On7nK2C24eVF2n6l4cVmon+VUXsYNd7N9HqGM9TRIO8bPOMFr9a5dWvdWw/fVKuQa7bxK6ynL7mkZk=</latexit> Deterministic models γ β I/N ν S I R d S d t = − β N SI + γ ( N − S − I ) d I d t = β N SI − ν I
One 𝚰 = One trajectory 300 250 200 prevalence Continuous trajectory 150 100 50 20 40 60 80 100 time
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