Mission Possible: Mission Possible: Charting the Forecast for - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Mission Possible: Mission Possible: Charting the Forecast for Charting the Forecast for Success Success Seyed Sadredin Executive Director/APCO

78% of NOx emissions and 42% of ROG 78% of NOx emissions and 42% of ROG emissions in 2005 were from mobile sources. emissions in 2005 were from mobile sources. Nitrogen Oxides Reactive Organic Gases (NOx) (ROG) 22% 42% 58% 78% Mobile Sources Stationary Sources 2

Past Efforts to Reduce Air Pollution by Region Percent Decrease, NOx Source: Based on ARB's 2006 Almanac 0.0% 1990 1995 2000 2005 -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% percent decrease -20.0% -25.0% -30.0% South Coast -35.0% San Joaquin -40.0% -45.0% year 3

60% Reduction in Emissions: 60% Reduction in Emissions: How Difficult? How Difficult? NOx 1000 ROG 800 Tons Per Day 600 400 “Carrying Capacity” 200 0 2005 2015 2015 w/o 2015 w/o 2015 w/o 2015 w/o 2015 w/o Emissions Light Duty Emissions Diesel Mobile Stationary Agriculture Vehicles Trucks Sources Inventory Inventory Sources 4

How soon can we meet the How soon can we meet the standard? standard? 1000 900 B a VOC + NOx tpd (summer) s e 800 l i n e E m i s s i o n s 700 600 Regulations Only 500 $7.5 Billion 400 300 200 $2.9 Billion $2.1 Billion 100 0 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 Year 5

Regulations vs. Incentives Regulations vs. Incentives 2012 Attainment $7.5 Billion Incentives 2020 Attainment $2.9 Billion 2023 Attainment Incentives Recent Local Rules New Local Regulations Fleet Turnover $2.1 Billion New State Measures Incentives Incentives 6