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Minta szveg minta COVID-19 IMPACT ON MARKETS Minta Gyrgy Istvnffy, - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Nov 08, 2023 •216 likes •295 views

Minta szveg minta COVID-19 IMPACT ON MARKETS Minta Gyrgy Istvnffy, 25th Athens Forum, 16 June 2020 LONG TERM EXPECTATIONS ARE NOT RECOVERING YET HUN Baseload Monthly Futures HUN Baseload Yearly Futures 75,00 75,00 01. 22. 01. 22.

  1. Minta szöveg minta COVID-19 IMPACT ON MARKETS Minta György Istvánffy, 25th Athens Forum, 16 June 2020

  2. LONG TERM EXPECTATIONS ARE NOT RECOVERING YET HUN Baseload Monthly Futures HUN Baseload Yearly Futures 75,00 75,00 01. 22. 01. 22. 03. 11. 03. 11. 70,00 BL Nov-19 70,00 Lockdown in Lockdown in SoE in Hungary SoE in Hungary Wuhan 65,00 65,00 Wuhan BL Dec-19 03. 27. 03. 27. 60,00 60,00 curfew curfew BL Jan-20 55,00 55,00 50,00 BL Feb-20 50,00 BL YR-20 EUR EUR 45,00 45,00 BL Mar-20 BL YR-21 40,00 40,00 BL Apr-20 BL YR-22 35,00 35,00 30,00 BL May-20 30,00 BL YR-23 25,00 25,00 BL Jun-20 20,00 20,00 BL Jul-20 BL Aug-20 HUN Baseload Quarterly Futures HUN Baseload Futures Contracts (Avg. prices measured in April) 75,00 01. 22. 03. 11. 70,00 Lockdown in 70 SoE in Hungary Wuhan 65,00 03. 27. 60 60,00 curfew BL Q1-20 55,00 50 50,00 BL Q2-20 EUR 40 EUR 45,00 BL Q3-20 30 40,00 BL Q4-20 35,00 20 30,00 BL Q1-21 10 25,00 BL Q2-21 0 20,00 May Jun Jul Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Cal+1 Cal+2 2019 2020

  3. DECREASING PRICES ON HUPX DAM, BUT VOLUMES … Daily traded volumes and prices 90000,00 80,00 80000,00 70,00 70000,00 60,00 60000,00 50,00 50000,00 MWh EUR 40,00 40000,00 30,00 30000,00 20,00 20000,00 03. 08. 01. 22. Lockdown in Lockdown in Lombardy (ITA) 10,00 Wuhan (PRC) 10000,00 03. 11. SoE in Hungary 0,00 0,00 Decreasing price levels with some correction during last weeks, stagnation in volumes at a high level since beginning of 2020.

  4. HUPX DAM INDEX YEAR ON YEAR DECREASES, BUT THE VOLUMES … Daily traded volumes and prices Volume - 20 Volume - 19 Price - 19 Price -20 120,00 90000,00 80000,00 100,00 70000,00 80,00 60000,00 50000,00 MWh EUR 60,00 40000,00 40,00 30000,00 20000,00 20,00 10000,00 0,00 0,00 Volumes are higher, prices are lower than in 2019. Both differences are significant.

  5. SPREADS GETTING NARROWER AMIDST LOWER ATC-S Day-Ahead weekly avg. prices with AT/SK - HU ATC AT-HU ATC SK-HU ATC spread HUPX EPEX DE 70,00 1800,00 1600,00 60,00 1400,00 50,00 1200,00 40,00 1000,00 EUR MW 800,00 30,00 600,00 20,00 400,00 10,00 200,00 0,00 0,00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Decreasing spread, despite the lower ATC values on AT and SK borders, unusual market behaviour, might be caused by the decrease of consumption and restructuring of generation mix.

  6. Thank you for your attention!

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