Ministry of Foreign Affairs and The Africa Policy Institute MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT — RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR KENYA c Professor Peter Kagwanja Presentation at the Conference : An analysis on the risks and opportunities for partnerships and trade
WHAT IS MIDDLE EAST? • Middle East and North Africa region: Geopolitically important location as the intersection of Europe, Sub Saharan Africa, Central Asia, and South Asia. • Middle East (Excluding North Africa) • International View of Middle East • Implication for Kenya’s Foreign Policy Fact-files -- Population 371 million (2010) -- area 7,207,575 km 2 -- Comprises of 18 Countries Risks: Conflicts Expansion of violent extremists: The worsening situation in Syria and Iraq, Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) The tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia, Mass refugees that are flowing into nearby regions The issue of Middle East Peace (Israel versus the rest), Conflicts in Afghanistan, Conflict in Yemen, The Crisis in Libya.
Opportunities • Contains major international maritime routes for international commerce • An important supplier of energy resources, including oil and natural gas, to the rest of the world. • Emerging as frontier of business, industrialization and tourism (See Separate slide) Interventions 1. Cooperation to counter the expansion of violent extremism including ISIL which has not only significantly undermined peace and security in the Middle East and North Africa region but also affected the entire global society. • Need to Support the construction of inclusive societies that do not generate violent extremism. • Provided humanitarian assistance for the refugees and internally displaced persons, • Economic partnerships: Improve economic infrastructure, Development of human resources. • Condemn terrorism linked to ISIL and other organizations • Give support for the fight against terrorism in the international community.
2. Address the protracted crisis in Syria • The expansion of ISIL in Syria and Iraq have caused a massive number of internally displaced persons and an influx of refugees from both countries to neighbouring countries and the European region • Increase humanitarian assistance, include support for countries like Turkey and Jordan, which have been affected by the influx of refugees from Syria). • Promote political dialogue. 3. Support the Resumption of the Middle East Peace Process: • Urge the resumption of peace talks • Diplomacy to Support Palestine, 4. Iranian nuclear issue: • The implementation of the final agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue • The U.S and the EU partially suspended or terminated sanctions against Iran. • After the final agreement, there have been efforts by many countries to further strengthen relations with Iran. • Encourage the steady implementation of the final agreement by Iran • Conclusion of the bilateral investment agreement Between Africa and Iran
MIDDLE EAST AND THE NEW FRONTIER OF GROWTH 1. In recent years, the Middle East countries have achieved steady economic development: • They have a rapidly growing youth population, • A consumer market and an investment destination. • Holiday Tourism for many countries 2. Establishing legal frameworks such as Economic Partnership Agreements (EPA), Free Trade Agreements (FTA) investment agreements, tax agreements and social security agreements which are foundations for strengthening the economic and business relationships with the Middle East countries. 3. Learn from infrastructure projects in the region . 4. Promote cooperation between Kenyan/African business and Middle-East business communities especially in the Four Key Pillars, sending economic delegations (industrialists, business categories, from large to medium and small enterprises).
THE MIDDLE EASTERN COUNTRIES
1. IRAQ In 2016, the Iraqi security forces made remarkable progress on liberating areas controlled by “The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL)” • The operation has been in progress since the second half of 2016 • The liberation of major cities in northern Iraq such as Ramadi (February) Heet (April) Rutba (May) and Fallujah (June). • On 17 October, Prime Minister Abadi of Iraq declared starting operations to liberate Mosul ISIL’s largest stronghold, and the Iraqi Security Forces have been continuing its mop-up operations. • Government maintains its force with military headway against ISIL .
Internal Instability • Internal political conflicts and tensions have continued. • Prime Minister Abadi’s cabinet restructure is incomplete. • Cabinet ministers have resigned due to corruption. • No notable progress on national reconciliation, which is one of the major issues in Iraq. Humanitarian Crisis • The ongoing fight against terrorism in Iraq has generated more than three million internally displaced persons in need of humanitarian assistance. • The country is in dire need of humanitarian (provision of food, water and other daily necessities to refugees as well as repairing houses). • Stabilization assistance (vocational training to assist the return of refugees to their home and settlement). International Efforts • On 20 July, 2016: Pledging conference in support of Iraq in Washington DC, hosted by the US Secretary of State John Kerry. • The Conference’s aim was to address the serious humanitarian crisis in Iraq. • Iraq is confronting a serious financial due to factors such as the failing oil prices and the accumulating cost of war. • At the G7 Ise-Shima Summit in Japan, G7 countries collected 3.6 billion US dollars for humanitarian and stabilization assistance. • The purpose was to ensure that the financial crisis did not destabilize Iraq, which is at the forefront in the fight against terrorism.
2. SYRIA: THE COMPLEX CIVIL WAR 1. As of the end of 2017, the Syrian crisis that started in 2011, as part of “the Arab Spring”, continued unabated. 2. Syria is facing perhaps the worst humanitarian crisis in the century, with more than 250,000 deaths, 4.8 million refugees, and 6.5 million internally -displaced persons. 3. Four competing parties within Syria are involved in continued violent conflict: • The Syrian government, • The moderate rebels, • Extremist forces including the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) • The Nusra Front and the Kurdish Forces.
4. Syrian Government Forces are receiving support from Russia in the form of airstrikes and other measures. • Russian strikes have concentrated on the Northern city of Aleppo, the home of the rebels from the outset of the Syrian crisis. • The rebels virtually controlled Aleppo, but the Syrian Government Forces has regained control of almost all of Syria, • However, instability continues with ISIL reoccupying Palmyra. • In April UK, France and US launches air-strikes in Syria 5. Several Failed cease-fires: • Cease -fire agreements were reached between the U.S and Russia in February and September 2016 • Combat temporarily subsided, but the agreement was breached and the fighting resumed. • A cease-fire agreement brokered by Russia and Turkey came into effect on December 30, 2016. • But it has not been honoured by the warring parties.
6 The fight against ISIL: • The fight against ASIL has involved ongoing airstrikes within Syrian territory by the U.S and others. • Progress has been made with the operation to liberate Mosul in Iraq. • The Turkish Army has fought alongside the Free Syrian Army, making inroads into Northern Syria in 2016-2017. • Kurdish forces (Yekineyen Parastina Gel, YPG) or the People’s Protection Units (which makes up the core of the Syrian Democratic Forces), launched operations to recapture Raqqa in Eastern Syria, which ISIL considers as its capital. • ISIL has gradually lost its power • The area in Syria under ISIL control is gradually shrinking. • But conditions remain chaotic.
Political Process • Dialogue between the Syrian Government and opposition groups is considered vital to find a political solution to the Syrian crisis. • Since January 2016, the UN has supported intermittent Intra-Syrian talks involving the Syrian government and rebels, often stalled by increased fighting. • Efforts by the international community towards the resumption of the Intra-Syrian talks include the activities of the International Syria Support Group (ISSG). • October 2015, ISSG convened the Summit of Foreign Ministers from the U.S , Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey to include affected countries and institutions. • This framework continued into 2017, focusing on the key issues of: - humanitarian access to the conflict area, - a nationwide cessation of hostilities in Syria, - The establishment of a humanitarian task force and cease-fire task force. - Japan, Australia, and the Netherlands have been included in the group
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