Metropolitan Las Vegas Challenges, Opportunities, and a Vision University of Nevada – Las Vegas Mark Muro and Robert Lang September 8, 2009
Why we are here Challenges and emerging opportunities A vision
One reason is growth Metro Las Vegas grew by 17 percent between 2000 and 2007 (or 2.5 percent a year!) Population growth by county, 2000 to 2007 More than 10 percent decline Zero to 10 percent decline 0.01 to 10 percent increase 10.01 to 20 percent increase More than 20 percent increase
One reason is growth Since then, however, growth has slowed precipitously—and for now has turned negative Metro Las Vegas will likely record a net loss of nearly 18,000 people this year Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates data and metropolitan Las Vegas estimates for 2009 from Applied Analysis
Another is the invention here in the Mountain region of new urban forms
And we’re here because you’re at ground zero of the world economic crisis
In this regard, there is growing consensus the nation’s economies need to reposition “The rebuilt American economy must be more export-oriented and less consumption- oriented” -Lawrence Summers, Director, National Economic Council Getty Images
And indeed, consumption is down nationally and the savings rate is rising 120 14 12 consumption 100 expenditures 10 Savings Personal 80 8 rate 60 6 4 40 2 20 0 0 -2 I - 9 0 0 2 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, 1947 Q1- 2009 Q1
Yet, this is problematic given Las Vegas’ hyper-dependency on consumption Share of metro private sector GDP from food, drinking, leisure, hospitality, construction, and real estate Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
In fact, Las Vegas exports very few hard goods beyond consumption Value of exported goods as a share of 12.0% 10.0% gross metropolitan product, 2006 10.0% 8.9% Metro average 8.0% 6.8% 6.1% 6.0% 4.0% 2.8% 2.5% 2.0% 1.1% 0.0% Source: International Trade Administration and the Bureau of Economic Analysis
All of which means: ?
Why we are here Challenges and emerging opportunities A vision
To help places assess their standing, we have developed a Blueprint for American Prosperity
The Blueprint is a deep-going prosperity analysis framework and federal policy agenda for metros
According to the Blueprint , true prosperity depends on achieving three types of growth Productive growth Inclusive growth Sustainable growth that boosts that fosters a strong that promotes innovation and middle class by sensible urban form, productivity and so addressing the reduces resource generates quality training and consumption and jobs and rising education needs of emissions, and incomes an increasingly protects the diverse population environment
To achieve these goals, the nation must leverage four key assets and improve regional governance Infrastructure Innovation Human Capital Sustainable, Quality Places + Improved governance networks
Infrastructure matters… …because high-quality transportation, transmission, and telecommunications networks are critical to moving goods, power, ideas, and workers quickly and efficiently
Innovation matters… …because the ability to invent and exploit new products, processes, and business models is critical for boosting productivity and competing globally
Human capital matters… …because innovation and the demands of a more competitive economy require a workforce with education and skill levels that are continuously rising
Sustainable, quality places matter… …because the new economic order and desire for environmental sustainability re-values dense forms, distinctive neighborhoods, and vibrant downtowns
Beyond that, improved regional governance matters… …because wider- reaching, region-scaled networks are necessary to match the boundary- crossing, dynamic problems of the new reality
So how is Las Vegas doing?
Las Vegas faces serious challenges… but it also has momentum Infrastructure Innovation Sustainable, Quality Places
Like the other Mountain metros, greater Las Vegas is underserved by interstates Las Vegas and Phoenix are the largest two adjacent metros not served by an interstate highway I-15—linking Las Vegas and LA—offers only two lanes each direction in some places Source: Federal Highway Administration
Greater Las Vegas and the rest of the megas are also undersupplied with intercity rail The lack of rail service between Las Vegas and cities such as Los Angeles and Phoenix results in long travel times on strained highways
And yet, “Mountain Megas” has helped reenergize discussions of I-11 Source: Maricopa Association of Governments
A high speed rail link with southern California is now in the mix Source: U.S. Department of Transportation
And McCarran International Airport remains a world class asset The hub ranked as America’s 6th busiest airport in 2008, just behind fifth-place Denver and ahead of 10th-place Phoenix Source: Airports Council International
Challenges Infrastructure Innovation Sustainable, Quality Places
R&D is a critical driver of innovation & productivity, but Las Vegas conducts little of it Top 100 Metro Average: 0.43% Share of total employment in R&D, 2005 0.24% 0.15% 0.13% 0.12% 0.07% Denver- Las Vegas- Phoenix-Mesa- Salt Lake Tucson, AZ Aurora, CO Paradise, NV Scottsdale, AZ City, UT Source: Analysis of 2005 Census data by Ned Hill
Patenting rates remain low U.S. average (33.0) San Jose CA 475.4 Albuquerque 48.6 Colorado Springs 72.0 Denver 26.8 Las Vegas 28.8 Phoenix 34.9 Salt Lake City 151.4 Tucson 76.3 0 100 200 300 400 500 Utility patents by city per 100,000 people per year, 2000-2009 Source: U.S. Trade & Patent Office
Partly as a result, Las Vegas remains fairly weak in critical green export activities Green Export/GDP (Left) Green Jobs/All Jobs (Right) (U.S. average: 2%) (U.S. average: 6%) Percent green exports Percent green jobs 2.0% 12% 10% 10% 1.6% 7% 7% 6% 8% 6% 1.2% 5% 5% 6% 0.8% 4% 0.4% 2% 0.10% 0.0% 0% Source: Brookings analysis of 2006 data from County Business Patterns and U.S. Census Foreign Trade Office. “Green” data are from the Michigan Department of Energy, Labor, and Economic Growth
And yet, Las Vegas’ productivity continues to outstrip most regional competitors Denver $120,000 Metro average $100,000 Las Vegas Phoenix $80,000 Tucson Colorado Springs $60,000 Albuquerque $40,000 Salt Lake City $20,000 $0 Source: Gross Metropolitan Product data from Moody’s Economy.com
The convening-hospitality-gaming sector remains a world-class source of export income and innovation
And natural assets, focus, and convening power are building new sectors
Challenges Infrastructure Innovation Sustainable, Quality Places
Climate change has heightened water supply questions Source: U.S. Bureau of Reclamation
And while natural growth constraints have fueled relatively dense development, policy choices have left the region auto-dependent and poorly linked
And yet, a strong, dense job core represents an important starting point Ninety percent of Las Vegas area jobs are located within 10 miles of the city center Source: Elizabeth Kneebone (Brookings, 2009)
Radical new urban design is beginning to retrofit the autoscape
Huge strides are being made on other aspects of sustainability, such as water Southern Nevada Water Authority per capita gallons of water use per day 360 340 320 300 280 260 240 220 200 Source: Southern Nevada Water Authority, “Water Resource Plan 2009”
And the region has shifted faster, and farther, toward renewables than anywhere Share of total energy consumption from renewables 8% 7% 6% 5% Nevada 4% California 3% 2% 1% U.S. 0% 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 -1% Source: Energy Information Administration
Partly as a result, Las Vegas’ carbon footprint remains below the national and regional average Million metric tons of carbon emitted per capita, 2005 U.S. metro 3.50 3.12 2.97 average: 2.50 2.91 3.00 2.29 2.50 2.26 2.16 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 Colorado Denver- Las Vegas- Phoenix- Salt Lake City Tucson Springs Aurora Paradise Mesa- Scottsdale Source: “Shrinking the Carbon Footprint of Metropolitan America” (Brookings, 2008)
In short, Las Vegas faces the future with significant promise…if it uses its time well
Why we are here Challenges and emerging opportunities A vision
And now, a vision… The time has come for America’s newest metropolitan colossus to leverage the new drivers of prosperity and claim full global city status
For More Information Robert Lang - (571) 296-1033, rlang@vt.edu Mark Muro - (202) 797-6315, mmuro@brookings.edu www.brookings.edu/metro/intermountain_west.aspx
Brookings Mountain West Initiative http://brookingsmtnwest.unlv.edu
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