Nat atio ional l Defe fense Un Univ iversit ity Developing R&D and Mass Production Cost Estimating Methodologies for Korean Maneuver Weapon System Doohyun Lee Suhwan Kim Sung-Jin Kang 본 자료는 저자와의 협의나 허락 없이 회람 , 복사 , 내용전달 등 행위를 금지합니다 .
Contents 1. Introduction Ba Backgro round and and Obje bjective Lite itera ratu ture re Re Revie view Ran Range and and Me Metho thodol ology Meanin Me ing of of Re Rese search 2. Development of CER for Maneuver Weapon Systems 3. Conclusion & Future Research KNDU Operation Research 2
Background and Objective Cos ost t ana nalysis is meth ethod in in R.O.K .K Not ot dom omestic tic data ta PRICE mod odel l deve eveloped in in the the U.S. Key ey va vari riable les in in PRICE mod odel (E (Ex) x) Lack of reliability • WE : Weight of a Electronic, • WS : Weight of a System • MCPLXE : Manufacturing Complexity of a Electronic Nee eed to to deve evelo lop cos ost t es estim timati ting • MCPLXS : Manufacturing Complexity of a mod odel suita uitable le for for R.O.K .K System KNDU Operation Research 3
Literature Review Rese Re searc rch Cont Content nts A study on developing a Formula development based on actual domestic parametric R&D cost estimating originals. model for missile System(Lee R&D cost estimation using ROC cost drivers Yong bok, 2011) A study on developing a life cycle Developing models for R&D, mass production, cost estimation model for military and O&S costs (Partially including foreign data) aircraft(Kim Dong gyu, 2012) • Regression methods are used in both papers to derive CER(Cost Estimating Relationship) • Not considered to resolve the problems caused by Multicollinearity and Outliers KNDU Operation Research 4
Range and Methodology Dom omesti tic mane neuver wea eapon syste tems (Tank (T nk(4) and nd arm rmor ored vehi vehicle le(5)) )) Developing WBS for the maneuver weapon systems Defining cost derivers based on the ROC Developing CER of R&D cost and mass production cost Tra ransformati tion of of Regression Anal alysis Dep ependent t Vari riable le KNDU Operation Research 5
Contributions Box-Cox transformation (Box & Cox, 1964) Improving suitability of - Improve suitability for regression models without regression models eliminating variables Improvement t in in the the Considered two different VIFs (ex, VIF(max)>10, VIF(mean)>1) cri criteri ria a of of mul multi ticolline neari rity Developed WBS and CER concerning R.O.K army Dom omesti tic maneuver weapon systems, for the first time actu tual l cos ost t Data ta Collected cost data about R&D and deployed weapon systems KNDU Operation Research 6
Contents 1. Introduction 2. Development of CER for Maneuver Weapon Systems Process of Proc of Cost Cost Esti Estimati tion Defin De ining WBS WBS fo for Ma Maneuver r Wea Weapon Syste System Derivin ing Cos Cost t Driv ivers Process of Proc of Deve eveloping R&D R&D Cost Cost CER CER Dev eveloping Ma Mass Produ Producti tion Cost Cost CER CER 3. Conclusion & Future Research KNDU Operation Research 7
Process of Cost Estimation ` Defi efining WBS Find Finding Cost Cost Driv iver Reg egression CER (Level 1~ (Le 1~3) 3) bas based on on RO ROC C Dev eveloping CER CER (R& (R&D, , mas mass pr producti tion) FER Find Finding FE FER *FER(Factor Estimation Relationship) : Unexpressed factors by CERs (ex, costs of project management, testing and evaluation, ILS, etc) KNDU Operation Research 8
Defining WBS for Maneuver Weapon Systems Reference: manual MIL-HDBK-88 from DoD Maneuver weapon sy system mass ass pro product ction co cost st 1.1 Bo 1.1 Body 1.2 PM & SE 1. SE 1.2 Syste 1. System engi ngineering (SE (SE) 1.3 .3 Proje ject t management (PM) 1.3 Training equ 1. quipment 1.1.1 Prot 1. otecti tion str structure 1. 1.4 Test sting & eval valuati tion 1.1.2 Fir 1. ire cont ontrol sy syste tem 1. 1.4 ILS 1. 1.5 Equ quip ipment & fi fixtu xturing 1.1.3 Tur 1. urret 1. 1.6 Data ta manag nagement t CER estim stimati tion 1.1.4. Sus 1. Suspension 1. 1.7 Training equ quipment t FER estim stimati tion 1.1.5 Pow 1. ower pl plant 1.8 ILS 1. 1.1.6 Assi 1. Assist t equ quipment KNDU Operation Research 9
Deriving Cost Drivers Cost Drivers: Factors as independent variables for each factor in level 3. Select cost drivers based on ROC and technical manual. Cha haracteristi tic va vari riable les(1 (17) Dum ummy va vari riable les(1 (10) Length, total weight, caliber/gun Suspension shape, automatic barrel, effective range, engine weight, detection and tracking equipment, engine output, maximum speed, automatic navigator, reactive armor, maximum torque, cruising range, fuel loading ammunition shape, laser tank capacity, road wheel, engine ranger, ballistic computer efficiency, shape, hole pass ability, obstacle CBR equipment, C4I system pass, telescope sight detectable interworking, Active protection driver range, fire control computer weight, * Dummy variables are represented by 0 or 1. laser ranger range KNDU Operation Research 10
Process of Developing R&D CER Ex. R&D CER for protection structure: Step 1. Selecting variables: stepwise selection total weight, maximum speed, engine output, maximum Result torque, presence of reactive armor R 2 selection(determinate an optimal combination of variables) R 2 R 2 Model Variables adj maximum speed, engine output, maximum Model 1 0.9889 0.9779 torque, presence of reactive armor total weight, maximum speed, maximum Model 2 0.9567 0.9134 torque, presence of reactive armor total weight, maximum speed, engine Model 3 0.9565 0.9130 output, presence of reactive armor total weight, maximum speed, maximum Model 4 0.9507 0.9014 torque, presence of reactive armor ※ mean VIF >1, max VIF >10 Principal Component Regression(PCR) KNDU Operation Research 11
Developing R&D CER Step 2. Establishing CER Model Variable R 2 R 2 adj Y = - 505.8566 + 5.6519(maximum speed) - Model 1 0.1296(engine output) + 1.0135(maximum torque) + 0.9292 0.9056 108.627(presence of reactive armor) Y = - 261.194 – 0.4475(Total weight) + Model 2 2.8817(maximum speed) + 0.4548(maximum torque) 0.9227 0.8970 + 139.661(presence of reactive armor) Y = - 279.4858 + 2.8558(Total weight) + Model 3 3.4547(maximum speed) - 0.0149(engine output) + 0.9297 0.9063 164.936(presence of reactive armor) Y = 221.027 – 21.672(Total weight) + 0.3159(engine Model 4 output) - 4.330(maximum torque) + 0.9019 0.8692 510.697(164.936(presence of reactive armor) KNDU Operation Research 12
Developing R&D CER Step 3. Verifying CER (model 3) Unit: Hundred million won Real Estimated Weapon System cost cost K-1 44.10 55.85 K-1 Rescue tank 57.87 65.56 K1A1 48.97 55.85 K-2 309.84 264.85 K-200 15.93 8.83 K-200A1 18.26 9.21 K-242 17.35 8.64 K-281 17.67 8.64 K-21 150.79 203.23 MMRE = 0.333 PRED(0.25) = 0.333 RMSE = 0.306 KNDU Operation Research 13
Developing R&D CER Step 4. Transforming the dependent variable(if necessary) Y 1/2 = - 8.891 + 0.1716(total weight) + 0.1505(maximum speed) - 0.00154(engine output) + 7.7950(presence of reactive armor) Unit: Hundred million won Real cost Estimated Weapon System cost K-1 44.10 49.84 K1 rescue tank 57.87 58.42 K1A1 48.97 49.84 K-2 309.84 280.18 K-200 15.93 16.23 K-200A1 18.26 16.05 K-242 17.35 15.78 K-281 17.67 15.78 K-21 150.79 176.65 MMRE : 0.042 PRED(0.25) : 1.00 RMSE : 0.048 KNDU Operation Research 14
Developing R&D CER Step 5. Integrating R&D CER Dep. Var. Result of CER development : Y 1/2 = - 8.891 + 0.1716(total weight) + 0.1505(maximum speed) Protection WC WC 1 : structure - 0.00154(engine output) + 7.795(presence of reactive armor) Power WC WC 2 : : Y 1/2 = - 23.6445 + 0.2905(total weight) + 0.00282(fuel tank equipment capacity) + 3.3968(kind of engine) - 0.0378(maximum torque) Suspension WC WC 3 : Y Y = 583.947 + 4.0898(total weight) + 0.07518(cruising range) equipment - 132.666(Number of road wheel) + 165.947(kind of suspension) Assistant WC WC 4 : : Y 1/2 = 4.5426 - 0.9634(length) + 0.1346(total weight) equipment + 0.9641(obstacle pass) + 5.762(C4Isystem interworking) WC WC 5 : Y Y = - 641.428 + 14.429(total weight) Turret + 564.197(active protection driver) Fire control WC WC 6 : : Y 1/2 = - 96.70713 + 0.00117(telescope sight detectable range) system + 4.78319(fire control computer weight) Esti Estimate ted R&D R&D Cost: Cost: WC WC T = = WC WC 1 + + WC WC 2 + + WC WC 3 + + WC WC 4 + + WC WC 5 + + WC WC 6 KNDU Operation Research 15
Developing R&D CER Step 6. Verifying the integrated R&D CER Unit: Hundred million won Estimated Weapon System Real cost cost K-1 339.57 336.1 K-1 resque tank 445.58 448.15 K1A1 171.77 187.53 K-2 2385.73 2329.64 K-200 42.85 42.72 K-200A1 49.11 45.9 K-242 46.66 44.27 K-281 47.51 44.27 MMRE : 0.041 K-21 940.35 986.13 Average deviation between real and estimated costs : about 4% KNDU Operation Research 16
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