Megatrends towards 2030 DTU Wind Jesper Bo Jensen, ph.d. Futurist - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Megatrends towards 2030 DTU Wind Jesper Bo Jensen, ph.d. Futurist Centre for Future Studies http://uk.fremforsk.dk/

Moore than 7 billion people

European Population Growth The Silver Tsunami Population Growth

The coming workforce of Europe? – 190 million under 25 years in the Arab world

India’s high -tech centre

Globalization 2.0  Outsourcing knowledge work and workers  Specialized engineers, researchers, scientists, mathematicians and financial wiz kids  Creativity  White collar sweat shops:  Digital retouch in Dacca  Why? – cheaper and closer to the markets  We have to survive and thrive at the skills and technologies, where we are better that the rest of the world and possesses better market knowledge

Kilde:The Economist, sept. 2th, 2014

The world economy will continue to grow

Disruptive technology

Globalization 3.0 Industri 4.0 (Davos)  Automation, robots and higher efficiency in production lines in  We will still manufacture goods in the US and in EU  Less and less work costs in the final cost of the goods  New technology replacing man power – but also assuring industrial jobs and the manufacturing industry in the future  Globalized lines of production with critical parts being made in Europa and the US

The digital revolution version 3.0 • We are in the middle of a real digital revolution that changes the way we work, produce and communicate in a new digital society • Digital structure and software has become a basic part of peoples lives and public and privates companies • A essential infrastructure in daily life like water and electricity • Your chances of succeeding depends very much on your digital capacity

The sun as a source of energy  The sun every day distributes the same amount of energy on Earth, that all humanity uses during 27 years at the present level of energy consumption  One hours of sun radiation = covers energy consumption a hole year  We only use 0,1 % of the suns radiation of energy to Earth  We have all the energy we need  We just have to pick it up

T HE PRICE OF OIL

IEA: World Energy Outlook Special Report, 2015

But we can meet the challenge just by being more efficient

Wind is still a rather tiny fraction IEA: World Energy Outlook Special Report, 2015

A renewable future Source: IEA Renewables 2012

European questions  Supply side – were to get the energy we need  Cleaning up the former mess – better power stations, cleaning emission, better grids etc.  CO2 quotas – the end of the qouta road?  The Americans are better at reducing CO2 emission than the EU  The grid and Europe – a major improvement needed  We have to build the power system of the future and do it well  National plans should be aggregated to EU level

Modern Danish worklife after the crisis  We live in a wealthy part of the world  Work is no longer just a question of paying next months rent  The crises created a temporary reluctance to ask for great salary increases and benefits  But it’s over now and demands are growing  Modern work life is about personal identity and a meaningful way of living  Competing with family, shopping and holidays

The flexible labour market  Half of all jobs that existed 10 years ago do not exist anymore  New jobs have been created replacing that half – slower during economic downturns – faster growth in boom times  Approx. 30% of the workforce changes jobs during a year  The labour market is a very flexible market  Our children will change jobs more often than us and change directions and industry more than once during their worklive

Six Generations Baby Boomers Generation Jones Generation X Born 1940-54 Recently discovered The so-what generation Post war generation – Large generation Small after the pill educational boom Design, ethics, idea Selfcenteret, extrovert Reinventing every phase of Against divorce, pro family Personal succes, Video, life – tech: Stereo set workaholics, love brands Rock, beat, soul Born 1955-67 Born 1968-79 Tech: The pill Generation Y Generation Z New Millenium After 9-11 generation The smallest gen. Between war gen., Cultural homogenization Fun shoppers, great social Project & trophy kids skills, Myself inc., EU as native soil Be famous, groups based situational consumption Wi – Fi (Wireless internet) Digital natives managing many choices F ø dt 2001 - 2013 Born 1990-2001 1980-89, PC, cell-phone

B, X og Y på arbejdspladsen

The Young families (Generation Y )  Dad is a caring and loving person and he plays with the kids on the kitchen floor  A new kind of family – not only mom as the centre  Want to do everything on the internet  Among Peers – love peers and peer review  Do not understand texts written by a person over 50  Lounge and chill  First video producing generation – love selfies  Facebook is a place to post your profile – not your life

Generation Z  Socialization: Kindergartens  Inhabitant of the internet and internet shopping malls: The digital natives  Can´t remember a life without a PC and a cell-phone  Let´s find the best price of a product world wide  Without the cell- phone ”I feel Naked”  Social networking is a must in life  Personal recognition for what I say or do  W hat´s in it for me !  Personal style over Brands  Loves to create their own products, music, way of doing things

Future job and future employers!  A job that is meaningful to me and my family and friends  A fair and just salary – still young  A flexible workplace  A good title – English please (Cheese Manager)  My work will shape my personality and identity  Recognize me, see me and praise me all day long  NOT too much work, please! - I also need time for friends, free me time and others interests (sports, shopping, parties and pets.)

” Born digital”

The future role of DTU Wind  Research will have to show its value to society in the future – Denmark, EU, The World?  Not enough to be of value to the wind turbine industry - but that is also necessary (who pays your research?)  You gotta serve somebody! (Bob Dylan) – but who?  So somehow you are expected to not only serve the industry and sectoral interest but also to tell the truth  What is the cheapest and most reliable source of renewable energy in the future?  Do du know for sure?  How can you present you doubts?

The stone age did not end due to lack of stones The oil age will not end due to lack of oil, but because of superior technologies

www.fremforsk.dk/en Jesper Bo Jensen Fremforsk - Centre for Future Studies Balticagade 15, st. th. 8000 Aarhus C E jbj@fremforsk.dk T +45 86 11 47 44 M +45 20 67 45 00