Global Megatrends Forces reshaping our world over the coming 20 years Stefan Hajkowicz, PhD www.csiro.au
Global Megatrends More From Less Great Planetary Expectations Pushback Porous The Silk Highway Boundaries + The Innovation Digital Forever Imperative Immersion Young
Why a Venn Diagram? Each area of overlap tells a unique story about the future Ice Cream Does the strategy perform in most/all areas of overlap? Use Take serviettes normal Effective care strategy not yet identified by humankind Children Car Trip Use activity books and games 3 | Global Megatrends | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz
More from Less
More Food Demand, Less Land Area 200 FAO Food Price Index (Real) 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 IMAGE AND DATA SOURCE: Marco Lagi, Karla Z. Bertrand, Yaneer Bar-Yam (2011) The Food Crises 20 and Political Instability in North Africa and the Middle East. Physics and Society. 0 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 5 | Global Megatrends | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz
More Food From Less Resources New Ways of Making Food 100 90 80 70 Percent 60 50 40 74 30 Source: Reuters: David Parry/Pool, file photo, ABC News Online 20 First taste test in London 2013 – The Burger Cost AUD$450,000. The same research team led by 10 Professor Post estimate $80/kg today using 1 13 11 economies of scale and cutting edge technology. 0 Energy Water Land GHG Becoda’s new food 3D printer – the Qiao Emmisions Conventional Meat Cultured Meat Source: Journal of Environmental Science and Technology Source: http://3dprintingindustry.com/ 6 | Global Megatrends | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz
More Energy, Less Resources & Less Emissions Via Better Batteries Source: Valentin Muenzel et al (2014) The Conversation. Drawing upon data by the University of Melbourne and IBM. “Unsubsidized rooftop solar electricity costs between $0.08-$0.13/kWh, 30-40% below retail price of electricity in many markets Source: David van der Mark, Flickr globally. In markets heavily dependent on coal The Tesla Model S P90D accelerates 0 to 100km/hr in 2.9 for electricity generation, the ratio of coal seconds; faster than the Ferrari 458 Italia at 3.0 seconds. It based wholesale electricity to solar electricity retails for ~US$120,000 (25% of that is the battery) [source: cost was 7:1 four years ago. This ratio is now Wikipedia, www.automoblog.net). less than 2:1 and could likely approach 1:1 over the next 12-18 months”. - Deutsche Bank, Markets Research, Feb 2015 Source: Pixabay 7 | Global Megatrends | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz
Mining Above the Ground One tonne of ore body yields 1-5 grams of gold One tonne of old computer circuits yields 250 grams of gold Data Source: CSIRO News, Anna Littleboy - March 28 2014 How to create wealth from waste Images CSIRO 8 | Global Megatrends | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz
Planetary Pushback
The Global Climate is Following the Long Range Forecasts The year 2015 was hottest year on record. And 2016 is off to a hot start with February being hottest February on record (1.35C hotter than long term average). 10 | Future of Work | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz & Dr Andrew Reeson Data and image source: NASA
Deaths attributable to antimicrobial resistance every year by 2050 11 | Global Megatrends | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz
The Silk Highway
A Shifting World Economy Source: Quah, 2011; Global Policy 13 | Global Megatrends | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz
Making Cities in 20 Years - What Took Europe 400 Years Image source: (c) The Chinese UPLA urban planning network, http://www.upla.cn Statistic derived from analysis of the United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects, The 2007 Revision Population Database 14 | Global Megatrends | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz
The Rise of the Services Sector Transition in the Chinese Economy 60 Percent of Value Add to the Economy 50 40 30 20 Industry Services 10 Agriculture 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Source: World Bank Indicators
Forever Young
The Ageing Population – Australia Today we’re some 14% over 65 yrs old It will be 25% by 2050 Data Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Average Retirement Age Is on the Rise Average Retirement Age Australia, Years 66 As of June 64 2013 Australia’s entire 62 workforce had a $727 billion 60 shortfall for a comfortable 58 retirement. 56 - Rice Warner 54 Actuaries 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Australia - Males Australia - Females Data source: OECD, Ageing and Employment Policies - Statistics on average effective age of retirement
Longer Lives (and No Ceiling) Years at Birth, Australia Life Expectancy at Birth in Australia, Years 85 Jeanne Calment, Males who died at 122 Females 80 At age 20 in 1885 75 70 The first person in the world to live to 150 years has already be born – according Today’s youngest could have life to Dr Aubrey de Grey 65 expectancy of 105 years 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 Data source: OECD Health Status, Life Expectancy at Birth Source: Eric Le Bourg, Ageing Research Reviews, Image: Wikipedia 19 | Global Megatrends | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz
Obesity Whilst the rate Rates of growth is (most forecast to slow, the percentage recent increases. OECD Australia is forecast to be data, 70% overweight defined and over one- third obese by by BMI) 2025. Poor diets and physical inactivity are drivers of this trend. 20 | Future of Work | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz & Dr Andrew Reeson
Rising Healthcare Expenditure Today we spend 25 Percent of GDP, Australia percent of all government taxes in Australia on healthcare. By the year 2043 it will be 40 percent. Source: CSIRO DPAS Flagship Source: AIHW health expenditure database
Digital Immersion
The Internet of Things Metcalfe's Law Value of a network = n 2 2006 2015 2020 2 Billion Devices 15 Billion Devices 200 Billion Devices 225 times more 40,000 times functionality more functionality Data source: Intel Corporation. A Guide to the Internet of Things. Image Wikipedia
Data Volumes And we’d need another 1800 75m to show you the 2025 forecast. 1600 Terabytes of data downloaded using fixed line broadband 1400 Thousand Terabytes 1200 1000 800 600 400 According to IBM The world creates 2.5 200 quintillion bytes of data daily; 90% of the data was made in the last 2 years. 0 Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015
Computing Speed 1600 And then there’s quantum computing which could be 10,000 times faster … 1400 Moore’s Law – Number of transistors on an integrated 1200 Transistors (millions) circuit doubles at same cost 1000 every 1.5 years 800 600 400 Jury’s still out on whether D Wave 2 (second 200 commercially available quantum computer by 0 Google, NASA and D Wave Systems) actually 1971 1974 1982 1989 1995 1999 2003 2008 2012 works. But maybe soon?
Question: The area of lilly pad doubles every day. It takes 19 days for the pond to be half-covered. On what day is the pond completely covered? 26 | Future of Work | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz & Dr Andrew Reeson Image: Pixabay
Frog Answer: On day 20 (one day later) the pond is covered. realises what’s happening 600,000 & tries to respond 100% Coverage Pond Coverage (Square Metres) 500,000 400,000 Frog Suspects Something 300,000 Happening 50% Coverage 200,000 Frog Doesn’t Know 100,000 Anything is Happening Yet 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 27 | Image: Pixabay
What Jobs do People Get? After seven years of effort by scientists from UC Berkeley a robot can fold a towel in … 20 mins. The Berkeley Robot for the Elimination of Tedious Task (Brett) by Prof Abbeel at UC Berkley. Image source: Youtube
Photographers Versus Lab Staff 14 Australian Photographic Industry 12 Employment ('000s) 10 8 6 4 Photographers 2 Developers/printers 0 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 ABS (2015). 6291.0.55.001 - Labour Force, Australia, Detailed. Canberra, Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Porous Boundaries
Ronald Coase Ronald Coase working in 2003. Photo taken at and by University of Chicago Law School. Wikipedia.
The New Platform Economies GLG
New Uber Drivers in the United States A study by Uber Technologies and Princeton University, published 2016 33 | Future of Work | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz & Dr Andrew Reeson
Great Expectations
. Cybercrime, Privacy Concerns, Intrusive Marketing, Information Overload, Online Burnout 35 | Future of Work | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz & Dr Andrew Reeson
Google Analytics – In Real Life Online Checkout https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Sk7cOqB9Dk
Is it really just C 8 H 10 N 4 O 2 37 | Future of Work | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz & Dr Andrew Reeson
The Innovation Imperative Now is the time to rattle the cage, experiment with new business models, invest in ideas & rethink organisational structure because… … Elephants must learn to dance.
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