Budapest Energy Summit, 3 December 2018 ENERGY LEADERS PANEL – ENERGY IN TRANSITION György Kóbor MVM Group
W E PERCEIVE AT LEAST 6 MEGATRENDS OF THE ONGOING ENERGY TRANSITION 6 Electrification Decarbonization 4 5 Sector coupling Clean G AME C HANGER Energy T RENDS OF THE Package E NERGY S ECTOR Clean Decentralization 3 Planet for All 1 Digitalization 2 Democratization György Kóbor, CEO & Chairman of the BoD, MVM Hungarian Electricity Ltd. 2 3 December 2018
T HE INCUBATION OF NEW TECHNOLOGIES , THE BOOM OF RENEWABLES WILL TRANSFORM THE TRADITIONALLY ESTABLISHED SYSTEMS STRUCTURE Decentralization Downstream driven Upstream driven centralized system decentralized system UTILITY SIZE RES MVL & LVL POD TRANSMISSION BASE LOAD DISTRIBUTION GENERATION GRID METERING DEVELOPMENT FLEXIBILITY UTILITY RESERVES SERVICES DSPP BASE LOAD DRM STORAGE TRANSMISSION GENERATION HEMS ACTIVE AGGREGATION FLEXIBILITY GRID DEVOP EV GRID MGMT RES Source: EDSO for smart grids RESERVES INTEGRATION The primary perspective of the energy systems change: in the past upstream was in focus, whereas in the future downstream components will be game changers György Kóbor, CEO & Chairman of the BoD, MVM Hungarian Electricity Ltd. 3 3 December 2018
D ECENTRALIZED SYSTEMS AND THE WIDESPREAD USE OF RENEWABLES WILL DRIVE THE COUPLING OF THE ELECTRICITY SECTOR WITH HEATING / COOLING AND TRANSPORTATION , FURTHER BOOSTING ELECTRIFICATION Electrification & sector coupling Estimated energy consumption Electricity supply system (EU-28 countries, by energy types) % (2015=100%) Co-generation Thermal PP Solar PP Wind PP Hydro PP plants 200 TOTAL: +67% CAGR = 1.5% 150 Transmission and Electricity Fossil P2x Transportation distribution grid storage fuels 100 Biomass 50 Syntethic Individual or collective Thermal 0 fuels heating/cooling storage 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 distribution system Coal / Firewood Heat Power (scenario 3) Oil Power (scenario 1) Heat Solar Heat pumps/ AC Geothermal Gas Power (scenario 2) boilers heat Electric boilers Source: European Committee, reference scenario 2050 (2016), Eurelectric Heating/cooling generation An extensive coupling of neighbouring sectors will be necessary to meet the new challenges of the electricity systems György Kóbor, CEO & Chairman of the BoD, MVM Hungarian Electricity Ltd. 4 3 December 2018
D UE TO DIGITALIZATION THE OFFTAKERS WILL BEHAVE MORE LIKE REAL CUSTOMERS FACILITATING MARKET ENTRY FROM OTHER INDUSTRIES The future arena of competition: customer homes and Self supply of energy with rooftop solar panels enterprise processes Smart home equipment Price and service comparison platforms Use of electric vehicles Digital utilities, digital customer journeys Self stroing energy in wall box accumulators provides energy independence for customers Energy efficiency solutions to help decreasing energy bills The key success driver will be the control over the direct customer relationship György Kóbor, CEO & Chairman of the BoD, MVM Hungarian Electricity Ltd. 5 3 December 2018
A S NEW SERVICES EMERGRE , VALUE CREATION SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM CLOSE TO THE CUSTOMER Generation & Services „ behind Distributed Transmission Distribution Metering Retail wholesale the meter ” generation Traditional utility services New services Revenues for 30-40% 15-20% 40-50% 0-10% 0-5% 0-2% 0-2% traditional utility Distributed generation Lower plant Investment in grid, lower regulated Smart meter AMI* IT systems, self Smart equipment, Drivers of value shift equipment utilization remuneration services service applications IT installation and leasing Direction of shift Future revenues with distributed 20-30% 10-15% 20-30% 5-15% 5-10% 0-10% 15-20% energy * AMI = Advanced Metering Infrastructure Source: Boston Consulting Group (2014, USA) Customer oriented value creation will be necessary to maintain competitiveness György Kóbor, CEO & Chairman of the BoD, MVM Hungarian Electricity Ltd. 6 3 December 2018
Thank you for your attention! György Kóbor, CEO & Chairman of the BoD, MVM Hungarian Electricity Ltd. 7 3 December 2018
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