Meeting the Challenges and Risks of Climate Change in the Arctic - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Meeting the Challenges and Risks of Climate Change in the Arctic Проблемы и риски, связанные с изменением климата в Арктике Klaus Peter Koltermann The 1st Pan-Eurasian Experiment (PEEX) Science Conference Helsinki, Finland, 10-13 February 2015 Peter Koltermann Faculty of Geography, MSU, Moscow

Температура 2080 - 2099 относительно 1980 -1999 Изменения зимней температуры в Арктике по данным наблюдений и модельный прогноз на 21 век для 4 сценариев выбросов. Доверительные интервалы показывают разброс результатов по 42 численным моделям. Peter Koltermann Faculty of Geography, MSU, Moscow

Лето / Summer Зима /Winter (Оценочный Доклад, 2014) Peter Koltermann Faculty of Geography, MSU, Moscow

Площадь морского льда (млн. кв.км) Arctic sea ice cover Peter Koltermann Faculty of Geography, MSU, Moscow

Russia has the longest coast-line with the Arctic Ocean • The Arctic Ocean determines the climate of Northern Russia • The North Atlantic contributes heat to the western Russian Arctic (Murmansk ice-free port,..) • The climate of Northern Russia is in a subtle balance between Arctic and Atlantic influences : – We have to understand the small changes which have large implications Peter Koltermann Faculty of Geography, MSU, Moscow

Relevant climate drivers: - Temperature - Wind - Sea ice - Snow cover - Floods - Vegetation Relevant change processes: o local: -Radiation balance, albedo, snow cover, vegetation cover -Water cycle, snow type and cover, precipitation -Permafrost o regional: -Atmospheric and oceanic advection -River and groundwater flow Peter Koltermann Faculty of Geography, MSU, Moscow

Population density of the Arctic regions of Russia Peter Koltermann Faculty of Geography, MSU, Moscow

Industry of the Arctic regions of Russia Peter Koltermann Faculty of Geography, MSU, Moscow

Transport of the Arctic regions of Russia Peter Koltermann Faculty of Geography, MSU, Moscow

The socio-economic features of the deltas in Russia. Problems of water use and environmental protection Peter Koltermann Faculty of Geography, MSU, Moscow

Ice and temperature regime of the Arctic region rivers Peter Koltermann Faculty of Geography, MSU, Moscow

Global Annual Surface Air Temperature Anomalies, ° C 2010 ˚ C 1998 Global temperature anomalies Rates of increase of annual temperature for the “globe” (60  S to 90  N) and Northern Eurasia are 0.91  C/130 yr and 1.5  C/130yr respectively (Lugina et al. 2007, updated). Peter Koltermann Faculty of Geography, MSU, Moscow

Wind Climatology over Russia, 1977-2011, Bulygina et al. 2013 (a) Mean annual wind speed, in m (sec) -1 (b) Annual number of days with Wind > 15 m (sec) -1 Peter Koltermann Faculty of Geography, MSU, Moscow

Begin of the no-frost season in Siberia Julian days 170 1966-2010; dD/dt = - 17 days/100yr; R² = 0.34 165 160 155 150 145 1936-2010; dD/dt = - 6 days/100yr; R² = 0.14 140 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Dates when daily minimum temperature sustainably Peter Koltermann Faculty of Geography, crosses 0 ° C in spring and remains above it Groisman, 2009 MSU, Moscow

Annual and winter number of days with thaw over European Russia south of 60 ° N 60 dD/dt = 11 days/50yrs; R² = 0.35 50 dD/dt = 6.5 days/50yrs; R² = 0.18 40 30 20 10 0 1949 1959 1969 1979 1989 1999 2009 Peter Koltermann Faculty of Geography, MSU, Moscow Groisman, 2009

Snow cover extent anomalies over Eurasia Anomalies in 10 6  km 2 May 1967-2013 Years

Mean maximum snow water equivalent, mm Top. Mean values for the 1966 – 2009 period along the snow surveys in the forested ( left ) and open (“field,” right ) areas. Bottom. Changes in snow water equivalent over Northern Siberia along the “field” snow survey routes (approximately 55– 65 ° N lat. belt). Increases within this belt are also observed eastward from Moscow (not shown) . Bulygina et al . 2011 Peter Koltermann Faculty of Geography, MSU, Moscow

Global hydrological cycle: small is not insignificant for extremes Peter Koltermann Faculty of Geography, MSU, Moscow MPI Hamburg

NRAL : Gulev, Semenov, Zolina Atlantic Multidecadal Variability impact on Volga river discharge Changes of Volga river discharge explain Annual precipitation regression, 0.1 mm/day / 0.1PW about 80% of the Caspian Sea level variability. An effect of the AMV on the hydrological cycle over Russia is studied in the simulations with a climate model forced by periodically varying heat flux anomalies corresponding to the AMV. Anomalous annual “AMV” Q-flux pattern, W/m 2 Simulated and observed Volga river discharge, km 3 /yr Multidecadal AMV variations have a strong impact on hydrological cycle in Volga watershed with expected decrease of the runoff in the first half of the 21 st century and probable Caspian Sea level decline. Peter Koltermann Faculty of Geography, www.NRAL.org MSU, Moscow Natural NRAL Risk Assessment Laboratory

The arctic deltas of Russia The largest deltas on the Russian Arctic coast are located in the mouths of the Severnaya Dvina, Pechora, Ob, Pur, Taz, Yenisey, Olenek, Lena, Yana, Indigirka and Kolyma rivers Peter Koltermann Faculty of Geography, Google earth MSU, Moscow

Water runoff, The annual water runoff km 3 /year River LHS UBD MBD Sev. Dvina 105 107.6 108 Pechora 110 130.8 132 Ob 398 407.0 408 Pur 28.4 32.7 32.9 Taz 33.5 45.6 45.8 Yenisey 587 631.4 633 Olenek 37.2 40.6 40.7 Lena 533 538.0 543 Yana 34.4 35.0 35.9 Indigirka 50.5 53.5 54.1 Kolyma 104 123.6 124 LHS - lowest hydrometrical station UBD - upper boundaries of the delta MBD - marine boundary of Peter Koltermann Faculty of Geography, the delta MSU, Moscow

Long-term changes of the annual water runoff The linear trend coefficient, River – km 3 /1year Δ W Q / Δ y* hydrometric station 1936-2006 1975-2006 Sev.Dvina - Ust-Pinega +5.4%/+15mm +0.119 +0.104 Pechora - Ust-Tsilma +4.2%/+18mm +0.205 +0.347 Ob - Salekhard -0.2%/~0mm +0.180 +0.467 Pur - Samburg +1%/+3mm - - Yenisey - Igarka +5.3%/+12mm +0.794 +1.984 Olenek - Sukhana +14%/+23mm +0.088 +0.276 Lena - Kyusyur +5.3%/+11mm +0.876 +1.244 Yana – Jiangky/Yubileynaya +8.8%/+12mm +0.070 +0.194 Kolyma - Srednekolymsk -0.2%/~0mm -0.045 +0.094 *change of annual water runoff in 1976-2006 in comparison with the value of annual water runoff in 1936-1975 Peter Koltermann Faculty of Geography, MSU, Moscow

The longitudinal changes in average Ob turbidity and suspended sediments of the regulated rivers before and after the creation of the large reservoirs Yenisey Ob Yenisey wikipedia.ru wikipedia.ru Kolyma Kolyma Peter Koltermann Faculty of Geography, wikipedia.ru MSU, Moscow

Sediment runoff of the Arctic rivers and turbidity of river waters Suspended sediment Bottom sediment Suspended sediment Bottom sediment runoff, million t/year runoff, million t/year runoff, million t/year runoff, million t/year River River LHS UBD UBD LHS UBD UBD Sev. Dvina 3.27 Olenek 1.16 3.33 0.65* 1.31 1.12* Lena 21.2 21.4 5.40* Pechora 5.59 6.43 2.28* Yana 4.48 4.49 1.46* Ob 15.9 16.0 2.89* Indigirka 11.7 11.8 3.40* Pur 0.707 0.77 0.41* Kolyma 9.94 11.7 4.20* Taz (0.524) 0.73 0.49* 1 before the period of regulated regime, 2 during the period of regulated regime 12.0 1 – 4.1 2 12.4 1 – 4.5 2 Yenisey Peter Koltermann Faculty of Geography, 2.77* * according to Alekseevskiy N.I. MSU, Moscow LHS - lowest hydrometrical station, UBD - upper boundary of the delta

Time series of average water and suspended sediment runoff of the large Arctic rivers Peter Koltermann Faculty of Geography, MSU, Moscow

Long-term changes of thermal regime on the lower reaches of large Arctic rivers The longitudinal changes in average water temperature of July before and after the creation of the Krasnoyarsk reservoir Peter Koltermann Faculty of Geography, MSU, Moscow

Long-term dynamics of ice phenomena Δ from 1936-75 yrs (days) 10 Δ from 1936-75 yrs (days) 10 Sev.Dvina Rv. freezing Lena Rv. freezing break-up break-up 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 1976-2012 2002-2012 1976-2012 2002-2012 Peter Koltermann Faculty of Geography, MSU, Moscow