Meeting Objectives Discuss IRWMP climate change requirements and - PDF document

9/1/2015 Meeting Objectives � Discuss IRWMP climate change requirements and project scope � Share and discuss vulnerability assessment findings � Prioritize vulnerabilities � Discuss how climate change will be incorporated into the IRWMP Source: California Department of Fish & Wildlife 2013 � Project selection � RMS development Upper Feather River Integrated Regional Water Management Plan August 21, 2015 – Climate Change Workshop Agenda � Introduction � Regulatory framework � Climate change requirements � Vulnerability Assessment � DWR checklist � Review of draft responses Source: Sacramento River Watershed Program 2010 � Prioritization of vulnerabilities Introduction � Next Steps � Questions and Comments Why are we talking about climate Climate Change Team change? � Michael Baker International � Regulatory framework � Chris Read � Proposition 84 � Tammy Seale Guidelines � DWR Climate Change � Alice Zanmiller Handbook for Regional � ECORP Water Planning � Recent conditions � Chris Stabenfeldt underscore the need � Michael Preszler to plan for more variability Wildland 2001 1

9/1/2015 Proposition 84 Guidelines (IV.A.16) Proposition 84 Guidelines (IV.A.16) This includes: � A discussion of potential effects “The IRWM Plan must of climate change on the region address both the and potential adaptation adaptation to the effects responses to those vulnerabilities of climate change and � A process that considers GHG the mitigation of GHG emissions in selecting project alternatives emissions. “ � A list of prioritized vulnerabilities � A plan, program, or method for further monitoring prioritized vulnerabilities Proposition 84 Guidelines (IV.A.16) DWR Climate Change Handbook � Provides direction for incorporating climate Evaluation must be equivalent change analysis and to the vulnerability methodologies into DWR assessment contained in the planning efforts � The climate change work Climate Change Handbook for completed for the UFR Regional Water Planning IRWMP will follow the suggested guidelines laid out in the handbook � Appendix B of the handbook provides a detailed checklist Example Climate Change Sections � Upper Sacramento, McCloud, and Lower Pit IRWMP (http://uppersacirwm.org/upload/pl an- sections/USR_IRWM_Plan_Chapt er9_ClimateChange.pdf) � Northern Sacramento Valley IRWMP (http://nsvwaterplan.org/mdocs- Vulnerability Assessment posts/final-nsv-irwmp-chapter-4/) 2

9/1/2015 Observed and Projected Changes How do we assess our vulnerability? � Review observed and predicted changes � Review how important assets have responded to similar impacts in the past and consider how they might respond if those impacts increase � DWR Climate Change Handbook for Regional Water Planning – Appendix B Source: Freeman 2015 Observed and Projected Changes Observed and Projected Changes Source: Freeman 2015 Source: Freeman 2015 Observed and Projected Changes How do we assess our vulnerability? Mean Annual High Temperature (Fahrenheit) 78 � Review observed and predicted changes 76 � Review how important assets have 74 72 responded to similar impacts in the past Degrees Fahrenheit 70 and consider how they might respond if 68 those impacts increase � DWR Climate Change Handbook for Regional 66 64 Water Planning – Appendix B 62 60 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038 2041 2044 2047 2050 2053 2056 2059 2062 2065 2068 2071 2074 2077 2080 2083 2086 2089 2092 2095 2098 A2 B1 Linear (A2) Linear (B1) Source: Cal-Adapt 2015 3

9/1/2015 DWR Vulnerability Assessment Climate Change Handbook – Appendix B Checklist* 1. Water Demand 2. Water Supply 3. Water Quality 4. Flooding 5. Ecosystem and Habitat Vulnerability 6. Hydropower *Sea level rise not included Participation Guide Resources Consulted Topic 1. Water Demand Question � Scholarly articles 1.1 Are there major industries that require � Cal-Adapt cooling/process water in your planning region ? � Local feedback Yes No Perhaps/Uncertain and expertise Answer No major industries are known to require cooling or � State agency process water. Past effluent violations might indicate process water used for the timber industry. guidance and data Source: Zeke Lunder 2015 Summary 1. Water Demand Participation Guide � Is the answer correct? 1.1 Are there major industries that require � Is the answer missing anything? cooling/process water in your planning region ? � How important is this? � Rate the urgency (high, medium, low). Urgency is how Yes No Perhaps/Uncertain No major industries are known to require cooling or soon an asset may be impacted. � Rate the risk (high, medium, low). Risk is the likelihood process water. and severity of the impact. � Follows the Upper Sacramento, McCloud, and Lower Pit IRWMP sample. (Provide answers as we go; there will be time to change answers at the end.) 4

9/1/2015 1. Water Demand 1. Water Demand 1.3 Are crops grown in your region climate- 1.2 Does water use vary by more than 50% sensitive? Would shifts in daily heat patterns, seasonally in parts of your region? such as how long heat lingers before nighttime Yes No Perhaps/Uncertain cooling, be prohibitive for some crops? Crop irrigation and increased population create Yes No Perhaps/Uncertain seasonal water use patterns that are regionally higher in summer months and lower in winter months. Some of the region’s crops, mostly fruits and nuts, would be directly vulnerable to changes in daily heat patterns. Others, such as alfalfa, depend on pollinators that may be negatively impacted by increasing temperatures. 1. Water Demand 1. Water Demand 1.4 Do groundwater supplies in your region 1.5 Are water use curtailment measures lack resiliency after drought events? effective in your region? Yes No Perhaps/Uncertain Yes No Perhaps/Uncertain The Sierra Valley Aquifer took nearly 20 years to Existing curtailments from the SWRCB have been met, rebound from extreme drought conditions when paired indicating effectiveness. If drought conditions persist or with increased withdrawal conditions. In the last 10 worsen, it is unclear how additional curtailments can be years, all SVGMD monitored water levels in the Sierra achieved in communities with rapidly diminishing water Valley have dropped. supplies. 1. Water Demand 2. Water Supply 1.6 Are some instream flow requirements in 2.1 Does a portion of the water supply in your your region either currently insufficient to region come from snowmelt? support aquatic life or occasionally unmet? Yes No Perhaps/Uncertain Yes No Perhaps/Uncertain A majority of water in the region originates as surface Although environmental water laws protect required flows from the Sierra Nevada. flows for aquatic life, reduced flow magnitudes can significantly reduce biological integrity of aquatic communities. 5

9/1/2015 2. Water Supply 2. Water Supply 2.2 Does part of your region rely on water 2.3 Does part of your region rely on coastal diverted from the Delta, imported from the aquifers? Has salt intrusion been a problem in Colorado River, or imported from other climate- the past? sensitive systems outside your region? Yes No Perhaps/Uncertain Yes No Perhaps/Uncertain The region is not located near the coast. Salt intrusion is This region relies only on groundwater and surface not an issue for the region. water from the Upper Feather River. 2. Water Supply 2. Water Supply 2.5 Has your region faced a drought in the past 2.4 Would your region have difficulty in storing during which it failed to meet local water carryover supply surpluses from year to year? demands? Yes No Perhaps/Uncertain Yes No Perhaps/Uncertain Reservoirs in the UFR historically spill frequently during The project team would still like to know more about the spring when inflow exceeds both the available past droughts. Current curtailments aside, how has the usable capacity of the seasonal reservoirs and the watershed recovered from droughts in the past? Were capacity of releasing inflow through outlets. local water demands left unmet? 2. Water Supply 3. Water Quality 3.1 Are increased wildfires a threat in your 2.6 Does your region have invasive species region? If so, does your region include management issues at your facilities, along reservoirs with fire-susceptible vegetation conveyance structures, or in habitat areas? nearby which could pose a water quality Yes No Perhaps/Uncertain concern from increased erosion? Several invasive and noxious weeds have been Yes No Perhaps/Uncertain introduced to the UFR watershed. Certain invasive The region is at a high risk for uncharacteristically large species are expected to increase in number as a result and damaging wildfires. Reservoir water quality could of warming and drying conditions. be adversely affected by increased post-fire erosion. 6