June 18, 2020 May 2020 Employment Report Doug Walls, Labor Market Information Director
Types of Employment Data Analyzed Survey of Households Survey of Businesses Local Area Unemployment Statistics Current Employment Statistics • Unemployment, employment and • Employment and wage estimates by labor force levels by geographic industry region • Measures jobs not number of people • Measures people employed not employed number of jobs • Excludes most agriculture, self- • Excludes individuals not in the labor employed, family, military and rail force workers 2
Types of Analysis Discussed Year-Over-Year Month-Over-Month • Numeric/Percentage Change • Numeric/Percentage Change • Issue: Less influence of seasonal • Issue: Large influence of seasonal factors factors • Main Use: Compare changes to • Main Use: Compare changes to previous time periods – long-term previous years in the same month – trends (growing, declining, comparison of previous years point-in- accelerating, or decelerating) time estimates 3
Month-Over-Month (MoM) Highlights • The Arizona seasonally-adjusted (SA) unemployment rate decreased from 13.4% in April to 8.9% in May • The U.S. SA unemployment rate decreased from 14.7% in April to 13.3% in May • Arizona reported an increase of 45,200 nonfarm jobs (1.7%) • The private sector gained 58,900 jobs (2.6%) • Eight of the eleven major sectors gained jobs while the remaining three sectors reported job losses 4
Year-Over-Year (YoY) Highlights • Arizona nonfarm employment decreased by 163,100 jobs (-5.6%) • Arizona private sector employment decreased by 155,100 jobs (-6.2%) • Two of the eleven major sectors added jobs • Gains were in recorded in Construction (1,500 jobs) and Financial Activities (1,000 jobs) • Nine of the eleven sectors recorded job losses • The largest losses were recorded in Leisure and Hospitality (-87,000 jobs) and Professional and Business Services (-29,500) • All seven Arizona metro areas (MSAs) lost jobs • The largest decreases were recorded in Flagstaff MSA (-17.4%) followed by Lake Havasu-Kingman MSA (-10.5%) 5
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Historical Unemployment Insurance (UI) Claims Continued Claims: • Claims in Arizona rose by 660 during week ending May 30 • Arizona continued claims peaked during the week of May 9 Initial Claims: • During week ending June 6, 24,367 UI initial claims were filed • A total of 654,092 UI initial claims have been filed since week ending March 14 through week ending May 30 7
Impacts of COVID-19 on the BLS Household Survey • For the March 2020 report, BLS began classifying anyone who was not working because of virus-related business closing as unemployed • BLS identified a misclassification error, in which some people were mistakenly characterized as employed rather than unemployed • An unusual number of people were being counted as “employed but absent from work” • Typically, this category reflects vacation, family leave or other temporary absences. • If the misclassified people had been counted as unemployed, the unemployment rate would have been higher in March, April and May 2020. 8
Impacts of COVID-19 on the BLS Household Survey 9
Impacts of COVID-19 on the BLS Household Survey 10
Impacts of COVID-19 on the BLS Household Survey Survey Response Rates • The response rate in the national survey of households was 83 percent in February, 73 percent in March, 70 percent in April and 67 percent in May • The Bureau of Labor Statistics was still able to obtain estimates that met their standards for accuracy and reliability • The response rate in the Arizona survey of households was 80.0 percent in January, 80.6 percent in February, 68.3% in March and 63.4% in April 11
Month-Over-Month Labor Force Change Highlights: • The Arizona labor force increased by 2,795 people (0.1%) MoM in May • The United States labor force increased by 1,746,00 people (1.1%) MoM in May • In April, Arizona’s labor force (-1.0%) decreased at a lower rate than the United States (-3.9%) 12
Month-Over-Month Employment Change 13
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Month-Over-Month Employment Change 15
Month-Over-Month Employment Change 16
Year-Over-Year Employment Change 17
Month-Over-Month Employment Change Highlights: • Gains in Administrative and Waste Services (3,200 jobs) were offset by losses in Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (-6,400 jobs) 18
Year-Over-Year Employment Change Notable Losses: • Employment Services lost 12,200 jobs (-11.9%) • Business Support Services lost 3,800 jobs (-9.5%) 19
Month-Over-Month Employment Change Highlights: • Retail Trade recorded gains of 7,400 jobs or 2.4%. ○ Clothing and General Merchandise (3,600 jobs or 5.2%) recorded a majority of Retail Trade gains • Wholesale Trade recorded a gain of 1,600 jobs ○ Gains came from wholesalers in: electronic parts, and sports and recreational goods. 20
Year-Over-Year Employment Change Notable Losses: • Retail Trade lost 11,800 jobs (-3.7%) • Transportation and Warehousing lost 1,200 jobs (- 1.2%) 21
Month-Over-Month Employment Change Highlights: • Local Government Education (-7,300 jobs) was responsible for a majority of Government job losses • State Government Education lost 4,000 jobs 22
Year-Over-Year Employment Change Notable Losses: • Local Education recorded a loss of -12,700 jobs (- 8.7%) • State Education recorded a gain of 6,300 jobs (12.4%) 23
Month-Over-Month Employment Change Highlights: • Large job gains were recorded in Food Services and Drinking Places (42,700 jobs or 27.6%) • Arts, Entertainment and Recreation gained 1,000 jobs 24
Year-Over-Year Employment Change Notable Losses: • Food Services and Drinking Places recorded a loss of 43,900 jobs (-18.2%) • Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation experienced losses of 21,000 jobs (-45.9%). • Accommodations recorded a loss of 22,100 jobs (- 48.1%) 25
Month-Over-Month Employment Change Highlights: • Credit Intermediaries recorded gains of 700 jobs ○ Job gains were primarily within commercial banking • Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing continued losing jobs in May (-900 jobs) following atypical losses in April (-1,300 jobs) ○ Losses attributed to residential and nonresidential property management, and real estate offices 26
Year-Over-Year Employment Change Notable Loss: • Real Estate and Rental and Leasing recorded a loss of -2,600 jobs (-4.7%) • Insurance Carriers recorded a loss of 200 jobs (-0.3%) Notable Gains: • Credit Intermediaries recorded a gain of 3,700 jobs (4.2%) 27
Month-Over-Month Employment Change Highlights: • Specialty Trades (2,400 jobs) was responsible for the majority of gains in Construction • Construction of Buildings (600 jobs) and Heavy and Civil Construction (500 jobs) also gained jobs 28
Year-Over-Year Employment Change Highlights: • Specialty Trades lost 400 jobs (-2.0%) • Construction of Buildings gained 400 jobs (1.2%) • Heavy and Civil Construction gained 1,500 jobs (7.5%) 29
Arizona New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits; Seasonally Adjusted Notable Changes: • 2,801 building permits were authorized in April 2020, 35% fewer than in March 2020 • Year-over-year there was a 29% decrease in building permits authorizations 30
Month-Over-Month Employment Change Highlights: • Job losses were recorded in both Durable Goods (- 1,000 jobs) and Nondurable Goods (-500 jobs) • Within Durable Goods, Aerospace Products and Parts gained 600 jobs 31
Year-Over-Year Employment Change Notable Loss: • Nondurable Goods lost 2,300 jobs (-5.3%) • Durable Goods lost 7,300 jobs (-5.5%) ○ Aerospace Products and Parts lost 200 jobs (-0.7%) ○ Computer and Electronic Parts gained 1,800 jobs (5.6%) 32
Month-Over-Month Employment Change Highlights: • Healthcare and Social Assistance gained 7,000 jobs ○ Ambulatory Healthcare Services gained 8,400 jobs ○ Nursing and Residential Care Facilities lost 600 jobs 33
Year-Over-Year Employment Change Notable Loss: • Ambulatory Health Care Services lost 4,100 jobs (- 2.4%) • Nursing and Residential Care Facilities lost 1,000 jobs (-1.7%) 34
Month-Over-Month Employment Change 35
Year-Over-Year Employment Change 36
Month-Over-Month Employment Change Highlights • Gains attributed to Beauty Shops and Civic and Social Organizations 37
Year-Over-Year Employment Change 38
Month-Over-Month Employment Change 39
Year-Over-Year Employment Change 40
Seasonally-Adjusted Month-Over-Month Employment Gain/Loss by Sector 41
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Report Summary • Month-over-month, Arizona nonfarm employment increased by 45,200 jobs • Eight of the eleven major sectors gained jobs • The Arizona SA unemployment rate decreased to 8.9% in May from 13.4% in April • The U.S. SA unemployment rate decreased to 13.3% in May from 14.7% in April • A total of 654,092 unemployment insurance (UI) initial claims were filed in Arizona from the week ending March 14 through the week ending May 30 43
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