July 16, 2020 June 2020 Employment Report Doug Walls, Labor Market Information Director
Types of Employment Data Analyzed Survey of Households Survey of Businesses Local Area Unemployment Statistics Current Employment Statistics • Unemployment, employment and • Employment and wage estimates by labor force levels by geographic industry region • Measures jobs not number of people • Measures people employed not employed number of jobs • Excludes most agriculture, • Excludes individuals not in the labor self-employed, family, military and rail force workers 2
Types of Analysis Discussed Year-Over-Year Month-Over-Month • Numeric/Percentage Change • Numeric/Percentage Change • Issue: Less influence of seasonal • Issue: Large influence of seasonal factors factors • Main Use: Compare changes to • Main Use: Compare changes to previous time periods – long-term previous years in the same month – trends (growing, declining, comparison of previous years accelerating, or decelerating) point-in-time estimates 3
Month-Over-Month (MoM) Highlights • The Arizona seasonally-adjusted (SA) unemployment rate increased from 9.0% in in May to 10.0% in June • The U.S. SA unemployment rate decreased from 13.3% in May to 11.1 % in June • Arizona reported an increase of 19,700 nonfarm jobs (0.7%) • The private sector gained 66,900 jobs (2.9%) • Nine of the eleven major sectors gained jobs while the remaining two sectors reported job losses 4
Year-Over-Year (YoY) Highlights • Arizona nonfarm employment decreased by 94,700 jobs (-3.3%) • Arizona private sector employment decreased by 79,200 jobs (-3.2%) • Four of the eleven major sectors added jobs • The largest gains were in recorded in Trade,Transportation & Utilities (5,900 jobs) and Other Services (1,700 jobs) • Seven of the eleven sectors recorded job losses • The largest losses were recorded in Leisure and Hospitality (-49,400 jobs) and Professional and Business Services (-24,800) • Six of the seven Arizona metro areas (MSAs) lost jobs • The largest decreases were recorded in Flagstaff MSA (-15.2%) followed by Lake Havasu-Kingman MSA (-7.5%) • Sierra Vista-Douglas was the only MSA that recorded job gains (1.5%) 5
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CES and LAUS Employment Comparison In June 2020, CES and LAUS employment change estimates showed different trends • The LAUS program estimated that SA employment declined by nearly 86,000 people MoM • The CES program estimated that SA employment increased by nearly 74,000 jobs MoM 7
CES and LAUS Employment Comparison Points to consider when interpreting the differences between CES and LAUS employment estimates: • The LAUS program includes individuals who are self employed while the CES program does not. • The collection periods are different for the LAUS survey and the CES survey. • LAUS SA employment gains in May 2020 were larger than employment gains reported in the CES program (164,000 jobs compared to 63,000 jobs). 8
CES and LAUS Employment Comparison When we apply a two-month moving average to the CES and LAUS employment estimates, the two surveys show similar employment changes in May 2020 and June 2020. 9
Historical Unemployment Insurance (UI) Claims Continued Claims: • Arizona claims declined by 902 individuals from week ending June 20 to week ending June 27. • U.S. claims have been declining since reaching its peak during week ending May 9. 10
Unemployment Insurance (UI) Claims Initial Claims: • During week ending July 4, 25,774 UI initial claims were filed in Arizona • A total of 754,499 UI initial claims have been filed in Arizona since week ending March 21 through week ending July 4 11
Month-Over-Month (MoM) Percent Labor Force Change Notable Changes: • The Arizona labor force declined by 55,529 people (-1.6%) MoM in June 2020. • The U.S. labor force increased by 1.1% MoM in June 2020. • Arizona is at 96.8% of Feb. 2020 labor force levels. • The United States is at 97.2% of Feb 2020 labor force levels. 12
Impacts of COVID-19 on the BLS Household Survey • For the March 2020 survey, BLS began classifying anyone who was not working because of virus-related business closing as unemployed. • BLS identified a misclassification error, in which some people were mistakenly characterized as employed rather than unemployed. • An unusual number of people were being counted as “employed but absent from work” • Typically, this category reflects vacation, family leave or other temporary absences. • If the misclassified people had been counted as unemployed, the unemployment rate would have been higher in March-June 2020. 13
Impacts of COVID-19 on the BLS Household Survey 14
Impacts of COVID-19 on the BLS Household Survey Note: Arizona misclassification data available only through May 2020. June 2020 data will be available July 17. 15
Impacts of COVID-19 on the BLS Household Survey Survey Response Rates • The response rate in the national survey of households was 83 percent in February, 73 percent in March, 70 percent in April, 67 percent in May, and 65 percent in June. • The Bureau of Labor Statistics was still able to obtain estimates that met their standards for accuracy and reliability • The response rate in the Arizona survey of households was 80 percent in January, 81 percent in February, 68 percent in March, 63 percent in April, and 59 percent in May. Note: June 2020 response rate for Arizona will be available July 17 16
Month-Over-Month Employment Change 17
Year-Over-Year Employment Change Highlights: • Arizona nonfarm employment declined 3.3% YoY (-94,700 jobs) in June 2020 • U.S. nonfarm employment declined 8.7% YoY in June 2020 18
Month-Over-Month Employment Change 19
Month-Over-Month Employment Change 20
Year-Over-Year Employment Change 21
Month-Over-Month Employment Change Highlights: • Job gains were recorded in Employment Services (3,400 jobs or 3.7%) and Business Support Services (900 jobs or 2.5%) 22
Year-Over-Year Employment Change Notable Losses: • Employment Services lost 10,100 jobs (-9.7%) • Services to Buildings and Dwell lost 4,200 jobs (-9.2%) • Business Support Services lost 3,200 jobs (-8.0%) 23
Month-Over-Month Employment Change Highlights: • Retail Trade recorded a gain of 6,600 jobs or 2.1%. ○ General Merchandise recorded a gain of 4,400 jobs or 6.9% ○ Clothing and Accessories recorded a gain of 2,300 jobs or 24.2% • Wholesale Trade recorded a gain of 1,400 jobs or 1.3%. • Transportation and Warehousing recorded a gain of 4,000 jobs or 4.0% 24
Year-Over-Year Employment Change Notable Losses: • Retail Trade recorded a loss of 2,200 jobs (-0.7%) Notable Gains: • Wholesale Trade recorded a gain of 6,900 jobs (7.0%) • Transportation and Warehousing recorded a gain of 1,000 jobs (1.0%) 25
U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures 26
Month-Over-Month Employment Change Highlights: • Local Government Education (-35,400 jobs or -26.6%) was responsible for a majority of Government job losses • State Government Education lost 13,800 jobs or -24.2% 27
Year-Over-Year Employment Change Notable Losses: • Local Government Education recorded a loss of -14,300 jobs (-12.8%) • State Government Education recorded a gain of 1,100 jobs (2.6%) 28
Month-Over-Month Employment Change Highlights: • Food Services and Drinking Places gained 18,300 jobs or 9.4% • Accommodation gained 8,600 jobs or 35.0% • Arts, Entertainment and Recreation gained 7,100 jobs or 29.1% ○ The gains came from Fitness and Recreational Sports Centers and Amusement and Theme Parks, among others.. 29
Year-Over-Year Employment Change Notable Losses: • Food Services and Drinking Places recorded a loss of 22,800 jobs (-9.7%) • Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation experienced losses of 14,300 jobs (-31.2%). • Accommodations recorded a loss of 12,300 jobs (-27.0%) 30
Month-Over-Month Employment Change Highlights: • Credit Intermediaries recorded gains of 900 jobs ○ Job gains were primarily within Real Estate Credit and Commercial Banking • Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing recorded a gain of 200 jobs 31
Year-Over-Year Employment Change Notable Loss: • Real Estate and Rental and Leasing recorded a loss of 2,400 jobs (-4.3%) • Insurance Carriers recorded a loss of 1,100 jobs (-1.7%) Notable Gains: • Credit Intermediaries recorded a gain of 3,800 jobs (4.3%) 32
Month-Over-Month Employment Change Highlights: • Heavy and Civil Construction (-700 jobs) was responsible for the majority of losses in Construction • Specialty Trades (-100 jobs) and Construction of Buildings (-100 jobs) also lost jobs 33
Year-Over-Year Employment Change Highlights: • Specialty Trades lost 2,700 jobs (-2.3%) • Construction of Buildings lost 800 jobs (-2.3%) • Heavy and Civil Construction gained 700 jobs (3.5%) 34
Arizona New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits; Seasonally Adjusted Notable Changes: • 3,037 building permits were authorized in May 2020, 4% more than in April 2020. • There was a 25% decrease in building permit authorizations YoY in May 2020. 35
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