MatSus Economic Indicators That Provide Some Insight Into The Future - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

MatSu’s Economic Indicators That Provide Some Insight Into The Future January 11 th , 2017 Neal Fried, Economist

Does this look like a recession? Alaska’s Total Wage and Salary Employment Over-the-year change 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 -2,000 -4,000 -6,000 -8,000 -10,000 -12,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Employment Is Still Growing-An Anomaly These Days Mat-Su wage and salary employment 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 *based on first 6 months

Employment Growth-Still Positive Annual wage and salary growth 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*

Better Than Most Places Annual wage and salary employment changes 3,400 2,700 2,100 1,700 1,500 900 900 500 500 300 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016* -900

Where Mat-Su Residents Work — Means More Than Ever Kenai Pen. Rest of State Borough 4% 1% Anchorage Mat-Su 30% Borough 55% Fairbanks NSB North Slope 1% 9% Excludes uniformed military, federal and self-employed workers

Percent Of Valley Residents Working In The Valley Has Changed Little 57% 57% 57% 56% 55% 55% 55% 55% 55% 55% 54% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

The Data Behind Commuting 2015 Average annual earnings North Slope $100,478 Anchorage $56,822 Mat-Su $42,731 Statewide $54,317

Employment Growth Gone In Anchorage In 2016 2.2% 1.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 2014 -0.1% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2015 2016* -2.3% *Preliminary

This Is How Things Are Shaping Up In Anchorage In 2016* Number of Jobs Gained and Lost in 2016 (3,600) Total 700 Health Care 100 Federal Government Leisure and Hosp. 0 (300) Reta il (1,600) PBS -900 Construction (700) Oil and Gas (400) State G *Preliminary

The Number of Mat-Su Residents Working On The Slope (in 2014 Mat-Su residents earned $258 million in the oil industry) Jobs 3,581 3,118 3,105 3,011 2,885 2,858 2,769 2,439 2,028 1,396 1,297 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Prudhoe Bay Employment Fell Fast And Hard historic high employment lowest level 12,843 13,236 13,485 13,434 since 2009 12,517 12,468 12,325 12,378 12,330 11,964 11,741 11,764 12,106 12,035 11,898 10,816 10,369 10,150 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2015 2016

Previous Oil And Gas Employment Losses In AK -800 -2,200 -800 2,400 - 1,400 1985-1987 1991-1997 1998-1999 2001-2003 2015-2016* -9.0% -9.0% -15.0% -21.0% -21.0% *preliminary estimate

Wednesday, October 5, 2016

Unemployment Climbing Some Percent unemployment % 12 11 10 Mat-Su 9 8 8.0% 7 6 5.2% 5 Anchorage 4 4.4% U.S. 3 2

Alaska's Personal Income Numbers Still Looking Good-- First 2 Quarters of 2016 Still Slightly Positive $41.3 $41.6 $ billions $34.9 $36.4 $36.9 $39.0 $30.9 $30.9 $32.5 $24.9 $26.4 $28.4 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016* Source: BEA *based on 2 quarters

Not Going To Bail Out The Economy Some Numbers — Lots of “Haze” Here Numbers of Customers 103,123 annually-72,426 monthly Number of Tons 17.8 tons, 4 tons retail Number of Direct Jobs 700 to 1,400 Number of Indirect Jobs 300 to 600 Total Number of Jobs 1,000 to 2,000 Total Value Retail $55.6 million Tax Revenues $7 million

Alaska's Visitor Industry Fully Recovered Visitors 2,000,000 1,950,000 1,900,000 1,850,000 1,800,000 1,750,000 1,700,000 1,650,000 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 Source: Mcdowell Group

Alcohol Consumption In Alaska--Any Pattern? Millions of gallons of beer, wine and liquor consumption in AK 18.5 18.4 18.4 18.3 18.3 18.2 18.2 17.9 17.8 17.5 17.4 17.0 16.6 16.3 15.8 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: AK Department of Revenue

A Pretty Attractive Income Picture Ranking State Median Household Income-2015 Anchorage $78,662 Mat-Su $76,424 1 Maryland $75,847 2 Hawaii $73,486 3 Alaska $73,355 4 New Jersey $72,222 5 Connecticut $71,346 U.S. $55,755

Home Sales In The Valley (1 st three quarters of 2016 have shown little change) 1,936 1,735 1,503 1,415 1,266 1,226 1,204 1,179 1,156 1,140 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Foreclosures, Little Sign Of Much Change Palmer Recording District, Foreclosures 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Source: Alaska Department of Natural Resources

Building Permits In The Mat-Su — No Bubble Here Number of residential building units In 1995, when Matsu population was 48,906, permits issued were 1,087. 2,038 Population was 74,871 1,762 Population now 100,178 988 962 906 810 777 778 750 729 703 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

The Valley Builds More Homes Than Anywhere Else In The State Kenai Pen. Borough Rest of 5% State 9% Mat-Su Borough 37% You have 14% of the state’s population Anchorage but built a third of 35% the new housing in 2015. Juneau 4% Fairbanks NSB 10%

You Remain Very Competitive Average sales price of single-family home, 3 rd quarter 2016 Statewide $320,999 Kenai $280,056 Juneau $377,635 Fairbanks $253,506 Anchorage $380,288 MatSu $269,462

The Valley Housing Price Advantage Has Changed Little In Over The Past Decade Ratio of single family home price-Anchorage/Mat-Su 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Valley Board of Realtors, MLS .

Alaska’s Biggest Current Challenge - Oil Revenues $billions! $11.3 $9.9 This eventually $8.1 has an effect $7.4 on the economy $6.2 $6.1 $5.7 $5.1 $4.4 $3.4 $2.3 $1.1 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016* *forecast

Questions?

After A Number Years of Decline The Trend Finally Reversed Itself Number of registered pick-ups in the Valley 37,000 35,000 33,000 31,000 29,000 27,000 25,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 And 9,565 registered snow machines in 2015 — high point was 11,048 in 2008. Source: AK DMV

• Alaska Leads U.S. States in Well-Being for First Time by Dan Witters Story Highlights Hawaii and South Dakota round out top three well- being states West Virginia ranks last for the sixth straight year Hawaii and Colorado only states in top 10 every year since '08

Alaska’s High Earners Under Thirty

Tuesday, January 27, 2015 But Laurence C. Smith warms right to Forecasting the future it in “The World in 2050: Four Forces Shaping Civilization’s Northern Future” (Plume, 2010). He’s a professor of earth, planetary, and space sciences at UCLA, and used model projections and data to form his main thesis: Countries north of the equator will grow ever more powerful, while countries to the south will vie for survival. Indeed, boomtowns will pop up in Alaska, Canada, Greenland, Russia and Scandinavia. As the permafrost melts, we’ll build roads, bringing construction jobs and a real estate rush.

Alaska's GDP Numbers Have Been Falling For A While $ billions $59.3 $61.6 $59.9 $58.1 $55.4 $54.2 $52.7 $51.0 $50.5 $49.3 $44.9 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016* *preliminary Source:BEA

Inflation--Lowest Cost Of Living Increases Since 1988 Anchorage consumer price index, 2005 to 2016 4.6% 3.2% 3.2% 3.1% 2.2% 2.2% 1.8% 1.6% 1.2% *1st half 2015 to 0.5% 2016 -0.1% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

MatSu Resident Workers Who Work in Anchorage 33.5 14,000 Percent Of MatSu Residents That Commute To Anchorage 33.0 12,000 32.5 10,000 32.0 31.5 8,000 31.0 6,000 30.5 30.0 4,000 29.5 Number Of MatSu Resident That Commute to Anchorage 2,000 29.0 28.5 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Total Employment Change Same month, compared to the previous year 15,000 10,000 5,000 February, 1986 -900 (-0.4 %) 0 -5,000 -10,000 -15,000 September, 1986 -18,500 (-7.5 %) -20,000 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988

Months Of Over-the-year Job Losses For Selected Industries During Alaska’s 1980’s “Great Recession” Jan-84 Jan-85 Jan-86 Jan-87 Jan-88 Total Employment 25 months Mining 13 months Construction 56 months Transportation, Communication and Utilities 46 months Trade 26 months Finance, Insurance and Real Estate 43 months Services and Miscellaneous 18 months State Government 18 months Local Government 23 months

65+ = 10 percent of population

Anchorage’s Military Numbers Are Trending Down Uniformed military-Anchorage 12,787 12,688 12,699 12,295 12,113 11,942 11,643 11,590 11,300 10,967 10,503 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: AKDOL