Battery Market Development: Materials Requirements and Trends 2012-2025 AABC EUROPE 2013 Christophe PILLOT Director, AVICENNE ENERGY June, 24-28 Strasbourg, FRANCE Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
AGENDA The battery market in 2012 by technology, applications & battery suppliers Li-ion battery value chain Raw materials market Supplier / customer relationship Battery Market Development: Materials Raw material cost Requirements and Trends 2012-2025 New entrants strategy Raw material road map 2012-2030 Rechargeable battery market forecasts up to 2025 AABC EUROPE June 24-28 Strasbourg, FRANCE Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com 2
AVICENNE ENERGY: RENOWNED TO HAVE REALISTIC FORECASTS HEV powered by Lithium ion battery EV sold, in million units, worldwide, forecasts from 2008 to 2012 2010 - 2020 5 IIT (MARCH 2011) 1,6 IIT 2007 1,4 DEUTSCHE BANK (2012) 4 Number of EV sold worldwide ( Million) Battery Market 1,2 Development: Materials Million HEV powered by LIB Requirements and Trends IIT 2008 1 2012-2025 3 IIT (MARCH 2010) 0,8 2 0,6 IIT 2009 AABC EUROPE ROLAND BERGER (2011) June 24-28 IIT 2010 Strasbourg, FRANCE 0,4 ROLAND BERGER (2012) 1 AVICENNE 2007-2012 0,2 AVICENNE 2007 AAB (2012) REALITY 0 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2010 2015 2020 Christophe PILLOT Source : International Battery Conference, Fort Lauderdale 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 & 2011 + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com 3
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2010 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of industry investments Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (90% market share) 35 000 30 000 Battery Market Others (Flow battery, Development: Materials 25 000 NAS, …) Requirements and Trends 2012-2025 Li-ion 20 000 MWh NiMH 15 000 AABC EUROPE June 24-28 10 000 NiCD Strasbourg, FRANCE 5 000 0 1990 2000 2010 Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com 4
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2012 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (90% market share) 300 000 400 000 350 000 250 000 Battery Market 300 000 Others (Flow battery, Development: Materials 200 000 NAS, …) Requirements and Trends 250 000 2012-2025 Li-ion MWh MWh 150 000 200 000 NiMH NiCD 150 000 AABC EUROPE 100 000 June 24-28 Lead Acid Strasbourg, FRANCE 100 000 50 000 50 000 0 0 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 2012 Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com 5
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2012 50 BILLION US$ in 2012 5% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR (1990-2012) 50 50 45 45 40 40 Battery Market 35 Others (Flow 35 Development: Materials battery, NAS, …) Requirements and Trends 30 30 2012-2025 OTHERS Li-ion Billion US $ Billion US$ AUTOMOTIVE 25 25 NiMH INDUSTRIAL 20 20 PORTABLE NiCD AABC EUROPE SLI 15 15 June 24-28 Lead Acid Strasbourg, FRANCE 10 10 5 5 0 0 1990 2000 2010 2012 1990 2000 2010 2012 Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com 6
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2012 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (90% market share) 400 000 Lead Acid Batteries 330 GWh for US $ 30 Billion 350 000 Battery Market 300 000 64% Development: Materials SLI Others (Flow Requirements and Trends battery, NAS, …) Industrial 2012-2025 250 000 Li-ion E-bikes 3% 33% MWh 200 000 NiMH Industrial Batteries NiCD AABC EUROPE 150 000 54 GWh for US $ 10 Billion June 24-28 Telecom Strasbourg, FRANCE Lead Acid 100 000 22% UPS 24% 12% 50 000 Other Stationary 2% Forklift 40% 0 1990 2000 2010 2012 Other Christophe PILLOT motive + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com 7
WORLDWIDE BATTERY SALES BY CHEMISTRY, MWH, 1995-2012 The worldwide rechargeable battery market, in volume, MWh, 1995-2012 45 000 40 000 2002-2012 (CAGR) 35 000 NiCd: -2% per year Battery Market NiMH: + 4% per year Development: Materials 30 000 Requirements and Trends Li-ion: +25% per year 2012-2025 25 000 MWh Li-ion 20 000 NiMH NiCd 15 000 AABC EUROPE June 24-28 Strasbourg, FRANCE 10 000 5 000 - 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com 8
WORLDWIDE BATTERY SALES BY CHEMISTRY, M$, 1995-2012 The worldwide rechargeable battery market, in value, M$, 1995-2012 14000 12000 2002-2012 (CAGR) NiCd: -6% per year Battery Market 10000 NiMH: + 7% per year Development: Materials Requirements and Trends Li-ion: +14% per year 2012-2025 8000 Li-ion M$ NiMH 6000 NiCd AABC EUROPE 4000 June 24-28 Strasbourg, FRANCE 2000 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Christophe PILLOT Note: Cell level + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com 9
JAPANESE, CHINESE & KOREAN MARKET SHARE Japanese market share (value) decreasing: from 82 % of the market in 2001 to less than 45% in 2012 Rechargeable battery market by LIB market by country country 80% 90% 70% 80% Battery Market Development: Materials 60% 70% Requirements and Trends 2012-2025 60% 50% Japan 50% 40% Japan Korea 40% Korea 30% AABC EUROPE China China June 24-28 30% Strasbourg, FRANCE 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com 10
LI-ION IN 2012 MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK 4 450 M cells – 32 000 MWh CAGR 2002/2012 +25 % per year in Volume 10 500 M$ +14% per year in value Li-ion Battery sales, Li-ion Battery sales, M$, Worldwide, 2000-2012 M$, Worldwide, 2000-2012 Battery Market 12 000 6000 Development: Materials Requirements and Trends 10 000 5000 2012-2025 4000 8 000 M $ M $ 3000 6 000 AABC EUROPE 2000 4 000 June 24-28 Strasbourg, FRANCE 1000 2 000 0 - 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Automotives Tablets Power tools Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others Camcorders Digital camera MP3 Games E-Bikes Others Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com 11
LI-ION IN 2012 MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK 4 450 M cells – 32 000 MWh CAGR 2002/2012 +25 % per year in Volume 10 500 M$ +14% per year in value Li-ion Battery sales, Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2012 MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2012 Battery Market 35 000 16 000 Development: Materials 30 000 14 000 Requirements and Trends 2012-2025 12 000 25 000 10 000 M Wh 20 000 M Wh 8 000 15 000 6 000 AABC EUROPE 10 000 June 24-28 4 000 Strasbourg, FRANCE 5 000 2 000 - - 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Tablets Power Tools Camcorders Digital Camera Video Games MP3 Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others Toys Auto Household devices E-bikes Others Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com 12
BATTERY PRICE IS DECREASING DRASTICALLY In 10 Years 80% price decreasing Average LIB cell price ($/Wh) despite a fluctuating Co price 1,00 0,80 0,60 0,40 0,20 Battery Market Development: Materials 0,00 Requirements and Trends 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Cylindrical Prismatic Laminate 2012-2025 Source: UMICORE, march 2011 Note- Q4 2012: Cylindrical: 0,18 $/Wh ; Laminates: 0,34 $/Wh 18650 oversupply ratio is Production capacity 2009/2011: increasing from 150 to 250 M cells/month AABC EUROPE June 24-28 BAK 300 3 000 40% Strasbourg, FRANCE ATL M cells /Year 2 500 250 M cells /month 30% Lishen 2 000 200 E-One 1 500 20% 150 LG 1 000 10% 100 SDI 500 MAXELL 50 - 0% SONY 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 0 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q10 4Q 10 1Q 11 2Q 11 3Q11 4Q 11 PANASONIC Christophe PILLOT Supply Demand Oversupply ratio + 33 1 47 78 46 00 SANYO c.pillot@avicenne.com 13
LIB: THE BIGGEST PART OF THE COST IS RAW MATERIALS RAW MATERIALS ACCOUNT FOR 50 TO 80% OF LIB CELLS BUSINESS RAW MATERIAL COST IMPACT DRASTICALY ON THE BATTERY MAKERS PROFIT LIB Cost structure for Japanese, Chinese & Korean makers in 2012 100% Production cost Battery Market Overheads Operating 90% 6% Margin Development: Materials profit 6% Sales & Adm 80% Requirements and Trends 6% Depreciation Cathode cost 2012-2025 70% 21% SGA 60% R&D Anode cost 6% 7% 50% Energy, R&D utilities Electrolyte 40% AABC EUROPE 3% 5% Labor June 24-28 Direct labor Separator 30% 6% 8% Depreciation Other Strasbourg, FRANCE 13% 20% materials Material 13% 10% 0% Christophe PILLOT Note: Average mix of cylindrical, prismatic & laminate cells Lithium ion cell average cost + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com 14
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