Market Performance and Planning Forum April 10, 2013
Objective: Enable dialogue on implementation planning and market performance issues • Review key market performance topics • Share updates to 2013-2014 release plans, resulting from stakeholders inputs • Provide information on specific initiatives – to support Market Participants in budget and resource planning • Focus on implementation planning; not on policy • Clarify implementation timelines • Discuss external impacts of implementation plans • Launch joint implementation planning process Slide 2
Agenda Agenda Agenda Agenda Agenda 10:00- 10:05 Introduction, Agenda Mercy P. Helget 10:05 – 11:15 Market Performance and Quality Update Guillermo Bautista Alderete, Nan Liu, Mark Rothleder 11:15 – 11:30 Policy Updates Brad Cooper 11:30 – 12:00 Technical Updates Khaled Abdul-Rahman, Li Zhou, George Angelidis 12:00 – 1:00 Lunch 1:00 – 2:00 Full Network Model Expansion Khaled Abdul-Rahman, Li Zhou, George Angelidis 2:00 – 2:15 Voice of the Customer Tom Doughty 2:15 – 3:00 Release Plan Updates Janet Morris FERC 764 Implementation Impact Assessment June Xie Note: Agenda is subject to change . Slide 3
Market Performance and Quality Update Market Quality and Renewable Integration Mark Rothleder Guillermo Bautista-Alderete Nan Liu Slide 4
1. Hot topics 2. Market Metrics • Price volatility and market convergence • RT energy/congestion imbalance offset • Convergence bidding • Exceptional dispatch • Bid cost recovery • MIP gap • Flex-ramp cost 3. Price Corrections Slide 5
Hot Topics • NP 15 MOC. • SC_PCT_IMP_BG. • Wind schedules vs. convergence supply bids awarded in IFM. • Data transparency. Page 6
NP15 MOC: The NP 15 MOC provides sufficient online capability to ensure secure operating level can be established within 30 minutes after first N-1 contingency on Path 15 and COI during planned outages. Procuring reserve capacity (that is 10 minute products) does not provide for the right service and does not provide for efficient way to operate the system and establish pre-contingency flows. In lieu of the MOC constraint, exceptional dispatches may be required after the day-ahead market. In future proposed contingency modeling enhancement may be able to supplant the need for NP15 MOC constraint. Slide 7
IFM congestion rents dominated by congestion on SCE_PCT_IMP_BG: $2,500 Thousands $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $0 1-Jan 3-Jan 5-Jan 7-Jan 9-Jan 11-Jan 13-Jan 15-Jan 17-Jan 19-Jan 21-Jan 23-Jan 25-Jan 27-Jan 29-Jan 31-Jan 2-Feb 4-Feb 6-Feb 8-Feb 10-Feb 12-Feb 14-Feb 16-Feb 18-Feb 20-Feb 22-Feb 24-Feb 26-Feb 28-Feb PATH15_BG SCE_PCT_IMP_BG WSTWGMEAD_MSL IPPUTAH_MSL PATH26_BG IVALLYBANK_XFBG POTRERO_MSL IPPDCADLN_BG SUTTEROBANION_BG Slide 8
IFM SCE_PCT_IMP_BG congestion and virtual bids: • The net virtual demand in SCE increase the import flow on the SCE_PCT_IMP_BG and can add to the congestion. • Sensitivity analysis showed lower congestion (shadow prices) when net virtual demand is removed and high shadow prices when net virtual supply is removed. Slide 9
Convergence bidding and DA wind schedules: SCE virtual supply vs. IFM wind schedules. Slide 10
Convergence bidding and DA wind schedules: SP 15 trading hub virtual supply vs. IFM wind schedules. Slide 11
Market transparency: Process has been in place to process and respond to data and information requests. ISO has received data/information requests and provided data transparency per established data release process. Process outline: Participants submit data/information requests using CIDI or calling the help desk. ISO reviews the requests based on approved data transparency policy and established guidelines. ISO provides/denies requested data/information according to established criteria/guidelines Additional stakeholder process may be required if requests are outside the approved tariff authority. Slide 12
$/MWh $/MWh Higher DA monthly average DLAP LMP in March. 10 20 30 40 50 60 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 0 Jan-11 Jan-11 Mar-11 Mar-11 May-11 May-11 Jul-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Nov-11 PG&E SDG&E Jan-12 Jan-12 Mar-12 Mar-12 May-12 May-12 Jul-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Jan-13 Mar-13 Mar-13 RTD HASP IFM RTD HASP IFM $/MWh $/MWh 10 20 30 40 50 60 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 0 Jan-11 Mar-11 Jan-13 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 SCE Jan-12 VEA Feb-13 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Nov-12 Jan-13 Page 13 Mar-13 RTD HASP IFM RTD HASP IFM
$/MWh $/MWh 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 0 0 Jan-11 Jan-11 Mar-11 Mar-11 May-11 May-11 Jul-11 Jul-11 DLAP LMP Monthly Average ( On Peak) Sep-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Nov-11 SDG&E PG&E Jan-12 Jan-12 Mar-12 Mar-12 May-12 May-12 Jul-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Jan-13 Mar-13 Mar-13 RTD HASP IFM RTD HASP IFM $/MWh $/MWh 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 0 0 Jan-11 Mar-11 Jan-13 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 VEA Jan-12 SCE Feb-13 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Nov-12 Page 14 Jan-13 Mar-13 RTD HASP IFM RTD HASP IFM
$/MWh $/MWh 10 20 30 40 50 0 10 20 30 40 50 0 Jan-11 Jan-11 Mar-11 Mar-11 May-11 May-11 Jul-11 Jul-11 DLAP LMP Monthly Average ( Off Peak) Sep-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 PG&E Jan-12 SDG&E Mar-12 Mar-12 May-12 May-12 Jul-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Jan-13 Mar-13 Mar-13 RTD HASP IFM RTD HASP IFM $/MWh $/MWh 10 20 30 40 50 0 10 20 30 40 50 0 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jan-13 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 SCE Feb-13 VEA Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Mar-13 Jan-13 Page 15 Mar-13 RTD HASP IFM RTD HASP IFM
More volatile RT DLAP LMP on average in March. PG&E SCE 70 70 60 60 $/MWh $/MWh 50 IFM 50 IFM 40 40 HASP HASP 30 30 RTD RTD 20 20 10 10 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324 Hour SDG&E VEA 70 70 60 60 $/MWh $/MWh 50 50 IFM IFM 40 40 HASP HASP 30 30 RTD RTD 20 20 10 10 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324 Page 16
Monthly price distributions: Price volatility reduced in the positive and increased in the negative direction in March. 4.0% 2.0% Percent of Real Time Intervals 0.0% Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% -$30 to -$5 -$100 to -$30 -$300 to -$100 <-$300 $250 to $500 $500 to $750 $750 to $1000 >$1000 Page 17
Monthly average of RTD intervals with insufficient up ramping capacity decreased in March compared with February. 180 2.00% 1.80% 160 1.60% 140 1.40% Percent of Intervals 120 Count of Intervals 1.20% 100 1.00% 80 0.80% 60 0.60% 40 0.40% 20 0.20% 0 0.00% Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 5-minute intervals with insufficient upward ramping capability percent of intervals with insufficient upward ramping capability Page 18
Monthly average of RTD Intervals with insufficient down ramping capacity continued to stayed at low level. 5.00% 500 4.50% 4.00% 400 3.50% Number of Intervals 3.00% 300 2.50% 2.00% 200 1.50% 1.00% 100 0.50% 0 0.00% Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 5-minute intervals with insufficient downward ramping capability percent of intervals with insufficient downward ramping capability Page 19
Real-time congestion offset and imbalance energy offset costs stabilized in Q1 2013. Slide 20
Exceptional dispatch volume continues to be lower than same periods of previous years. 0.24% of total load. Page 21
Daily exceptional dispatches in MWh – by reason 8 7 6 Thousands MWh Per Day 5 4 3 2 1 0 1-Jan 3-Jan 5-Jan 7-Jan 9-Jan 11-Jan 13-Jan 15-Jan 17-Jan 19-Jan 21-Jan 23-Jan 25-Jan 27-Jan 29-Jan 31-Jan 2-Feb 4-Feb 6-Feb 8-Feb 10-Feb 12-Feb 14-Feb 16-Feb 18-Feb 20-Feb 22-Feb 24-Feb 26-Feb 28-Feb Software Limitation Thermal Margin Transmission Outage Voltage Support Unit Testing Gas/Fuel Supply Limitations SP26 Capacity Load Pull Other Page 22
$Millions months. Bid cost recovery (BCR) costs increased in the last two 10 12 14 16 18 20 0 2 4 6 8 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 IFM Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 RT Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 RUC Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Page 23 Feb-13 Mar-13
Recommend
More recommend
