Market Performance and Planning Forum October 23, 2019 ISO PUBLIC ISO PUBLIC
Objective: Enable dialogue on implementation planning and market performance issues • Review key market performance topics • Share updates to 2019 release plans, resulting from stakeholders inputs • Provide information on specific initiatives – to support Market Participants in budget and resource planning • Focus on implementation planning; not on policy • Clarify implementation timelines • Discuss external impacts of implementation plans • Launch joint implementation planning process ISO PUBLIC Page 2
Market Performance and Planning Forum Agenda – October 23, 2019 1 p.m. – 4 p.m. Time: Topic: Presenter: 1:00 – 1:05 Introduction, Agenda Kristina Osborne 1:05 - 2:50 Market Performance and Quality Update Market Analysis and Forecasting 2:50 – 3:20 Policy Update Brad Cooper John Goodin 3:20 – 4:00 Release Update Trang Deluca ISO PUBLIC Page 3
Market Update Market Analysis and Forecasting Department ISO PUBLIC Page 4
Maximum Gas Constraint enforced in SDGE area due to planned outage • Planned SDG&E system-wide gas curtailment of CAISO Dispatchable Electric Generation was in effect starting on October 14, 2019, at 12:01 AM PCT. • Maximum gas constraint nomogram was enforced in all the markets starting 10/14/2019 to 10/18/2019 (in DA) and 10/14/2019 to 10/17/2019 (in RT) • Nomogram was not binding for any hours except for one hour on 10/18/2019 in DA market ISO PUBLIC Page 5
Total CRR payment after pro-rata adjustments ISO PUBLIC Page 6
Total CRR surplus includes both auction revenues and balancing surpluses, and all of that is allocated to measured demand ISO PUBLIC Page 7
Steady surplus was observed in the last three months of 2019 ISO PUBLIC Page 8
Auction revenue shortfall after CRR1B Policy implementation is showing a reduction of shortfall in magnitude ISO PUBLIC Page 9
The ISO fixed an issue of the fifteen-minute market load forecast posted on OASIS • The ISO posts the load forecasts used in the CAISO’s markets • When a new load forecast came into the market prior to the publication of results, the new load forecast was posted on OASIS • The load forecast of the buffer interval was taken for reference when posting the load forecast to OASIS • These publication issues were fixed proactively since October10, 2019 • The resulting load forecast differences in publication are small ISO PUBLIC Page 10
RTD renewable (VERs) curtailment remained low since May ISO PUBLIC Page 11
Hydro production higher than previous year in August and September ISO PUBLIC Page 12
ISO total monthly VERS schedules and forecasts compared to actuals ISO PUBLIC Page 13
Monthly wind (VERS) downward flexibility in FMM ISO PUBLIC Page 14
Monthly solar (VERS) downward flexibility in FMM from 11 AM to 5 PM ISO PUBLIC Page 15
Renewable (VERS) schedules including net virtual supply aligns with VER forecast in August and September http://www.caiso.com/Pages/documentsbygroup.aspx?GroupID=EFF75C 2E-F28E-4087-B88B-8DFFAED828F8 ISO PUBLIC Page 16
Hourly distribution of maximum RTD renewable (VERS) curtailment in September ISO PUBLIC Page 17
Self scheduled interties in the real-time market stayed at high levels ISO PUBLIC Page 18
Improved price convergence in August Note: Metric Based on System Marginal Energy Component (SMEC) ISO PUBLIC Page 19
RT prices higher than DA prices for both NP15 and SP15 in August and September ISO PUBLIC Page 20
Insufficient upward ramping capacity in ISO real-time declined since June ISO PUBLIC Page 21
Insufficient downward ramping capacity in real-time remained low ISO PUBLIC Page 22
Exceptional dispatch volume in the ISO area slid in August and September ISO PUBLIC Page 23
As summer conditions ended, Exceptional dispatches fell in September ISO PUBLIC Page 24
Bid cost recovery rose in August ISO PUBLIC Page 25
Bid cost recovery (BCR) by Local Capacity Requirement area ISO PUBLIC Page 26
ISO area RTCO and RTIEO increased in September 2018 2019 (YTD) RTCO $116,722,770 $53,631,359 RTIEO $18,506,981 -$10,407,733 Total Offset $135,229,751 $43,223,625 ISO PUBLIC Page 27
CAISO price correction events decreased in August and September 8 7 6 5 Count of Events 4 3 2 1 0 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Process Events Software Events Data Error Events Tariff Inconsistency ISO PUBLIC Page 28
EIM-Related price correction events remain low in August and September 12 10 8 Count of Events 6 4 2 0 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19 Process Events Software Events Data Error Events ISO PUBLIC Page 29
Flexible Ramp Up Sufficiency Test Results Most BAAs Fail Flex Up Test less than 2% of intervals 9% 8% 7% 6% Frequency 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 AZPS CISO NEVP PACE PACW PSEI PGE BCHA IPCO BANC-SMUD ISO PUBLIC Page 30
Flexible Ramp Down Sufficiency Test Results Most BAAs Fail Flex Down Test less than 2% of intervals 20% 18% 16% 14% Frequency 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 AZPS CISO NEVP PACE PACW PSEI PGE BCHA IPCO BANC-SMUD ISO PUBLIC Page 31
Average Flexible Ramp Product Cleared Awards for each area with EIM Area Requirement - June to July 2019 ISO PUBLIC Page 32
Average Flexible Ramp Up Price ($/MWh) ISO PUBLIC Page 33
Average Flexible Ramp Down Price ($/MWh) ISO PUBLIC Page 34
Uncertainty Up Settlement Amount ISO PUBLIC Page 35
Normalized Flex Ramp Up Payment ISO PUBLIC Page 36
Uncertainty Movement Down Settlement ISO PUBLIC Page 37
Day-ahead load forecast 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% MAPE 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 2018 2019 **MAPE = abs(Forecast – Actual)/Actual ISO PUBLIC Page 38
Day-ahead peak to peak forecast accuracy 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% MAPE 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 2018 2019 **MAPE = abs(Forecast – Actual)/Actual ISO PUBLIC Page 39
Day-ahead wind forecast 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% MAPE 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 2018 2019 **The 2017 generation data used for accuracy calculation contains the economically dispatched MW. **MAPE = abs(Forecast – Actual)/Capacity ISO PUBLIC Page 40
Day-ahead solar forecast 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% MAPE 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 2018 2019 **The 2017 generation data used for accuracy calculation contains the economically dispatched MW. **MAPE = abs(Forecast – Actual)/Capacity ISO PUBLIC Page 41
Real-time wind forecast 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% MAPE 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 2018 2019 The 2017 generation data used for accuracy calculation contains the economically dispatched MW. **This forecast accuracy is pulled directly from the CAISO Forecasting System. **MAPE = abs(Forecast – Actual)/Capacity ISO PUBLIC Page 42
Real-time solar forecast 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% MAPE 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 2018 2019 **2017 has been changed to track the RTD accuracy, i.e. the forecast made 7.5 minutes before the binding interval. The 2017 generation data used for accuracy calculation contains the economically dispatched MW. **This forecast accuracy is pulled directly from the CAISO Forecasting System. **MAPE = abs(Forecast – Actual)/Capacity ISO PUBLIC Page 43
EIM T-60 Forecast IPCO T-60 Forecast AZPS T-60 Forecast 1.4% 2.5% 1.2% 2.0% 1.0% 1.5% 0.8% 0.6% 1.0% 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mar Apr May Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Jun Jul 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019 PGE T-60 Forecast NVE T-60 Forecast 1.4% 1.4% 1.2% 1.2% 1.0% 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019 ISO PUBLIC Page 44
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