FRP Down Payment – Hourly Distribution – From August - November 2017
Congestion revenue rights market revenue inadequacy without auction revenues. Page 50
Congestion revenue rights market revenue sufficiency including auction revenues. Page 51
Exceptional dispatch volume in the ISO area remained at low levels Page 52
Real-time Bid cost recovery trended downward since July Page 53
Bid cost recovery (BCR) by Local Capacity Requirement area Page 54
Minimum online commitment (MOC) MOC San Onofre Bus Page 55
Pmax of MOC Cleared Units Page 56
Enforcement of minimum online commitments in October and November Number (frequency) of hours in MOC Name October and November Humboldt 7110 SVC In 1218 MOC Rio Hondo 5320375 752 MOC Songs-Serrano 405 MOC SAN ONOFRE BUS 140 SCIT MOC 133 MOC Colgate 5424628 MOC2 67 MOC Colgate 5424613 MOC1 61 MOC Palermo 5443153 46 HNTBH 7820 40 MOC Caribou 5348538 39 SDGE 7820 21 Orange County 7630 18 MOC Bay Area 1 Winter No TBC 10 SDGE 7820 CFEIMP_BG 9 Page 57
Renewable (VERS) schedules including net virtual supply aligns with VER forecast in October and November http://www.caiso.com/Pages/documentsbygroup.aspx?GroupID=EFF75C 2E-F28E-4087-B88B-8DFFAED828F8 Page 58
Hourly distribution of maximum RTD renewable (VERS) curtailment in November Page 59
ISO area RTCO rose in October and November. 2016 2017 (YTD) RTCO $50,631,302 $34,006,636 RTIEO $4,932,172 $46,424,325 Total Offset $55,563,474 $80,430,961 2016 2017 (YTD) RTCO $50,555,180 $22,644,865 RTIEO $3,002,472 $29,360,876 Total Offset $53,557,652 $52,005,740 Page 60
CAISO Price correction events down in October and November 10 9 8 7 6 Count of Events 5 4 3 2 1 0 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Process Events Software Events Data Error Events Tariff Inconsistency Page 61
EIM-Related Price correction events increased in October and November 14 12 10 Count of Events 8 6 4 2 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 2016 2017 Process Events Software Events Data Error Events Tariff Inconsistency Page 62
EIM Prices observed less volatility after summer Page 63
EIM BCR increased in November compared with October Page 64
EIM Manual Dispatch dropped in November and was mostly concentrated in APS area Page 65
Day-ahead load forecast 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% MAPE 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2015 2016 2017
Day-ahead peak to peak forecast accuracy 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% MAPE 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Mar Apr May Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Feb Jun Jul Oct 2015 2016 2017
Day-ahead wind forecast 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% MAE 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2015 2016 2017 **In 2015-2016, Economic dispatches are not added back in to the generation data. **The 2017 generation data used for accuracy calculation contains the economically dispatched MW.
Day-ahead solar forecast 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% MAE 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2015 2016 2017 **In 2015-2016, Economic dispatches are not added back in to the generation data. **The 2017 generation data used for accuracy calculation contains the economically dispatched MW.
Real-time wind forecast 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% MAE 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2015 2016 2017 **2015-2016 represent the accuracy of the forecast made each hour at xx:55 for the following hour, i.e. the 5-65 minute ahead forecast. Economic dispatches are not added back in to the generation data. **2017 has been changed to track the RTD accuracy, i.e. the forecast made 7.5 minutes before the binding interval. The 2017 generation data used for accuracy calculation contains the economically dispatched MW. **This forecast accuracy is pulled directly from the CAISO Forecasting System.
Real-time solar forecast 6% 5% 4% 3% MAE 2% 1% 0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2015 2016 2017 **2015-2016 represent the accuracy of the forecast made each hour at xx:55 for the following hour, i.e. the 5-65 minute ahead forecast. Economic dispatches are not added back in to the generation data. **2017 has been changed to track the RTD accuracy, i.e. the forecast made 7.5 minutes before the binding interval. The 2017 generation data used for accuracy calculation contains the economically dispatched MW. **This forecast accuracy is pulled directly from the CAISO Forecasting System.
Department of Market Monitoring Q3 Market Issues and Performance Report David Robinson Market Monitoring Analyst, Lead Page 72
Average energy prices increased in Q3 Average monthly prices (all hours) – system marginal energy price $50 Day-ahead 15-Minute 5-Minute $40 Price ($/MWh) $30 $20 $10 $0 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 2016 2017 Comments on the Load Conformance Limiter Enhancement Department of Market Monitoring May 19, 2017 Page 73 http://www.caiso.com/Documents/DMMComments-LoadConformanceLimiterEnhancement.pdf
Peak load greater than resource adequacy requirement Daily peak load, resource adequacy capacity, and planning forecast 60,000 Resource adequacy capacity Day-ahead bids and schedules Actual peak load Peak day-ahead load forecast Monthly system RA requirement 50,000 MW 40,000 30,000 20,000 28 29 30 31 1 2 3 4 5 6 August September Page 74
Decrease in-bid in energy on September 1, 2017 Day-ahead incremental supply bids August 26 - September 1, 2017: (Hour 19) $1,000 August 26 August 28 August 30 September 1 $900 $800 $700 Bid price ($/MWh) $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 -$100 -$200 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 Cumulative incremental MW Page 75
Upward shift in load adjustments in hour-ahead and 15 min Average 3 rd quarter hourly load adjustment (2016 – 2017) 1,300 2017 Hour-ahead market 1,200 2017 15-minute market 1,100 2017 5-minute market 1,000 2016 Hour-ahead market 900 2016 15-minute market 800 2016 5-minute market 700 Megawatts 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Page 76
Increase in manual dispatches of imports on interties Hourly manual dispatch volume on select days (May – September) 7,000 HE16 HE17 HE18 HE19 HE20 HE21 HE22 6,000 5,000 4,000 Megawatts 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 3rd 19th 7th 20th 22nd 1st 28th 29th 1st 2nd 5th 11th May June July August September Page 77
ISO prices generally following prices in the West Daily system and bilateral market prices (July - September) $180 System marginal energy price $160 Palo Verde $140 Mid-Columbia $120 Price ($/MWh) $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 3 7 12 17 20 25 28 2 7 10 15 18 23 28 31 6 11 14 19 22 27 July August September Page 78
Increased costs - competitive prices in line with market fundamentals Total annual wholesale costs per MWh of load (2013-2017 YTD) $70 $7 Average cost (nominal) Average cost normalized to gas price, including greenhouse gas adjustment $60 $6 Average daily gas price, including greenhouse gas adjustments ($/MMBtu) Average annual gas price ($/MMBtu) Average annual cost ($/MWh) $50 $5 $40 $4 $30 $3 $20 $2 $10 $1 $0 $0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Page 79
Market remain competitive but changing Residual supply index for day-ahead energy 2017 Jan – Sep & 2016 Jan - Dec 1.5 2017 Single pivotal supplier test (RSI1) Jan-Sep 2017 Two pivotal supplier test (RSI2) Jan - Sep 2017 Three pivotal supplier test (RSI3) Jan- Sep 1.4 Residual supply index for system energy 2016 Single pivotal supplier test (RSI1) 2016 Two pivotal supplier test (RSI2) 2016 Three pivotal supplier test (RSI3) 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 Hours Page 80
Policy Update – December 18, 2017 Brad Cooper Manager, Market Design Policy John Goodin Manager, Infrastructure & Regulatory Policy Page 81
Ongoing policy stakeholder initiatives • Annual policy initiative roadmap process – Annual stakeholder process to develop policy development plan – Stakeholder call on draft roadmap December 14th – January 2018 EIM Governing Body and Feb 2018 CAISO Board meetings • Commitment costs and default energy bid enhancements – EIM Governing Body advisory role – Stakeholder call on proposed changes to draft final proposal December 21st – Revised draft final proposal posted January 2018 – March 2018 EIM Governing Body and CAISO Board Meetings • EIM Greenhouse gas attribution enhancements – EIM Governing Body primary approval authority – Report on “two - pass” methodology released on November 16th – Additional stakeholder discussions likely necessary Page 82
Ongoing policy stakeholder initiatives (continued) • Imbalance conformance enhancements – EIM Governing Body advisory role – Stakeholder call on December 8th to discuss issue paper/straw proposal – Draft final proposal posted January 2018 (tentative) – April 2018 EIM Governing Body meeting (tentative) – May 2018 CAISO Board meeting (tentative) • Congestion revenue right auction efficiency – Working group on December 19th to discuss analysis and policy direction – Straw proposal posted January 2018 (tentative) – Working group February 2018 (tentative) – Revised straw proposal posted March 2018 (tentative) Page 83
Ongoing policy stakeholder initiatives (continued) • Flexible resource adequacy criteria and must-offer obligation – phase 2 – November 29th stakeholder meeting on proposed framework – Revised framework to be posted January 2018 – Q3-Q4 2018 CAISO Board meeting • Energy storage and distributed energy resources (ESDER) Phase 3 – EIM Governing Body advisory role – Second workshop scheduled for January 2018 (market notice will be sent out soon) – Post straw proposal February 2018 – Late 2018 EIM Governing Body and ISO Board meetings Page 84
Ongoing policy stakeholder initiatives (continued) • Transmission access charge (TAC) billing structure – Stakeholder working group held on September 25 th – Straw proposal paper to be published in January – Take TAC proposal to CAISO Board in 2018 • Capacity Procurement Mechanism risk of retirement process enhancements – Proposal approved at November 2 CAISO Board meeting – On December 18 will hold second call on draft tariff language – Will file at FERC in January 2018 Page 85
Upcoming policy stakeholder initiatives • Real-time market enhancements (limited scope) – EIM Governing Body advisory role – Evaluating scope, schedule TBD • Intertie deviation settlement – Straw proposal to be posted January 2018 – Board meeting to be determined • Variable Energy Resource Dispatch Operating Target – EIM Governing Body advisory role – Straw proposal and draft tariff language to be posted January 2018 – Targeting EIM GB and ISO BOG decision in March 2018 • Review of RMR and CPM – Issue paper/straw proposal to be posted in January 2018 Page 86
Upcoming policy stakeholder initiatives • Storage as a transmission facility • RA Reform • Day ahead flexible reserve product • Load bias limiter Page 87
Developer Site Launch René Dupré Manager, Corporate Systems Page 88 Last updated: December 18, 2017
Our Observations • Developers are opening tickets for basic issues: – How to do I get access ? – How to make an API call ? – My API call yields no results and I don’t understand why ? • New API releases / changes may not be obvious. • Releases can span applications, adding complexity to finding updated information. • WWW.CAISO.COM has little audience segmentation to support developers. • There is an increase in new developers, and they don’t know where to start. • This all results in CIDI tickets and delayed developer support. Page 89 Last updated: December 18, 2017
Improvement – Launching New Website • Developer information will no longer be buried in WWW.CAISO.COM. • ISO will launch a new site which consolidates information and organizes it by application. CAISO.COM Planning developer.caiso.com Developer Participate Info URLs Discussion Rules Board Getting Trouble- Glossary Started WSDLs Stay shooting Market & XSDs Informed FAQs Ports & Operations Acceptable Use IPs Page 90 Last updated: December 18, 2017
Login Page Page 91 Last updated: December 18, 2017
Registration Required • Unfortunately, the Internet presents security challenges which is forcing the ISO to rethink its policy of publically posting all its API information. • Thus, developers need to register so we know who is accessing technical data and to enable a vetting process. • Existing market participants are automatically approved access and will not experience any registration delays. • Non-participants will be contacted by our Information Security department to determine need and use. • Simple user id and password model, no certificate. Page 92 Last updated: December 18, 2017
Site Contents • API URLs & IP Addresses by environment. • Service artifacts with release identification. • Ability to download XMLs into developer tools. • Links to documentation and release notes. • Acceptable Use Policies • Frequently Asked Questions • Troubleshooting tips • Community Discussion Board • Glossary • Application Outage Schedule Page 93 Last updated: December 18, 2017
Additional Details • Much of the information is sorted by application rather than release. • The site is intended to be dynamic so that new FAQs can quickly be conveyed to developers. • A section will be dedicated to connectivity setup to help those struggling with access issues. • Content curation is time consuming so expect that this will be a 1.0 product to deliver value immediately and will improve over time. • Soft launch in late December with active promotion in January. Page 94 Last updated: December 18, 2017
Future Looking • Future documentation may be reworked for better site integration. • The Systems Integration Discussion Board in the Market Participant Portal will be ported to the new site. • We will explore adding sample code and other features to help developers get to running code more quickly. • After launch we will be adding a feedback link to help guide improvements. Page 95 Last updated: December 18, 2017
Release Plan Update Janet Morris Director, Program Office Page 96
The ISO offers innovative training programs Training Date All classes are offered at our Folsom, CA campus unless noted otherwise Jan 11* Welcome to the ISO (virtual instructor led training) The ISO’s External Training & Readiness team provides quality Feb 6-7* Get to Know the ISO training and readiness programs that successfully prepare Feb 8* Settlements 101 Stakeholders to effectively engage with the ISO Feb 9* Settlements 201 *Registration to be open soon Training calendar: http://www.caiso.com/participate/Pages/Training/default.aspx Contact us: CustomerTraining@caiso.com EIM computer based training courses: https://www.westerneim.com/Pages/Resources.aspx 97
Release Plan 2017 - 2018 Independent 2017 • Black Start and System Restoration Phase 2 • Imperial Valley Phase Shifter Modeling • EIM 2017 Enhancements • Deactivation of TLS 1.0 & 1.1 • OMS Generation Nature of Work Updates Winter 2017 • EIM 2017 Enhancements • EIM Winter 2017 Enhancements • Energy Storage and DER Phase 1C • RIMS Functional Enhancements • RAAIM Calculation Modifications • Reliability Services Initiative 2017 • EIM 2018 Idaho Power Company • EIM 2018 Powerex Spring 2018 • Commitment Cost Enhancement Phase 3 • EIM greenhouse gas compliance – to be determined • Capacity Procurement Mechanism – risk-of-retirement (no system changes expected) • SIBR UI Upgrade Page 98
Release Plan – 2018 and subject to further planning Fall 2018 – tentative, subject to impact assessment • Contingency Modeling Enhancements • Commitment Costs and Default Energy Bid Enhancements – Ph. 1 • Aliso Canyon Phase 3 • Settlements Performance Improvements • Energy Storage and DER Phase 2 • Generator Contingency and Remedial Action Scheme Modeling • ADS User Interface Replacement Spring 2019 • EIM Balancing Authority of Northern California (BANC) / SMUD • EIM LADWP Fall 2019 – tentative, subject to impact assessment • Frequency Response Phase 2 • Commitment Costs and Default Energy Bid Enhancements – Ph. 2 • Congestion Revenue Right auction efficiency (July 2019) • Flexible Resource Adequacy Criteria and Must-offer Obligation Phase 2 • Transmission Access Charge billing structure Spring 2020 • EIM Salt River Project • EIM Seattle City Light Page 99
2017- Black Start and System Restoration Phase 2 Details/Date Project Info Settlements: • Modifications to existing charge codes for Black Start capacity and Black Start Application Software allocations will need to occur. Changes MPP (Market Participant Portal): • Possibility to use current functionality for receiving RMR invoices for Black Start units. Definitions & Acronyms: • Revision of the following definitions to match the Tariff language: Ancillary Services (AS), Black Start Generator, Black Start Generating Unit, Interim BPM Changes Black Start Agreement, Reliability Services Costs Settlements & Billing: • Pending Settlements review. Revisions will be directly based on Tariff changes. Milestone Type Milestone Name Dates Status Board Approval Board approval May 1, 2017 BPMs BPM Changes Required TBD Configuration Guides Publish draft Settlements Configuration Guides TBD Request for Proposal (RFP) Posted request for proposal documents June 15, 2017 RFP bids Closure of RFP July 31, 2017 File tariff May 15, 2017 Tariff Filed tariff amendment related to cost allocation Aug 3, 2017 Tariff approval Nov 1, 2017 Awards Awards and final report December 1, 2017 Settlements changes effective date December 1, 2017 Production Settlements implementation October 1, 2018 First Settlements cycle December 1, 2018 Page 100
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