Market Assessment
agenda: Market Assessment o Statistical Analysis o Case Studies o Conclusions The Power of Zero: Optimizing Value for Next Generation Green 20 November 2013 | 2
building types statistical analysis o community centers o k-12 schools 88 200 office buildings – low-rise o o wet labs high-performance high-performance buildings buildings The Power of Zero: Optimizing Value for Next Generation Green 20 November 2013 | 3
approach statistical analysis normalize data • common location • common time 500 establish comparison baseline buildings • the project’s original budget • the project itself, without the green elements • similar projects The Power of Zero: Optimizing Value for Next Generation Green 20 November 2013 | 4
wet labs statistical analysis $ / SF Control Gold Platinum NZE/LB Green 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 BUILDINGS MEASURED
K-12 statistical analysis $ / SF Control Green LEED Platinum NZE/LB 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 BUILDINGS MEASURED
community centers statistical analysis $ / SF Control LEED Gold Green LEED Platinum NZE/LB Platinum 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 BUILDINGS MEASURED
low-rise office building statistical analysis 900 Control Green Platinum NZE/LB 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 BUILDINGS MEASURED $ / SF
energy performance: predicted vs. actual EUI statistical analysis Green Platinum ZNE/LB 20 10 0 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50
EUI to cost Community Center Wet Lab K-12 Office Residetial Low Rise Residential Low-Rise 250 200 EUI (KWH/SF/YEAR) 150 100 50 0 $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 COST IN $ PER SF
findings comparison of component costs • High Performance buildings are happening • There are two distinct families • Demonstration projects • ‘ Mainstream ’ projects – (a growing cohort) • HPB are getting there by reducing consumption • Costs are approaching ‘conventional’ buildings The Power of Zero: Optimizing Value for Next Generation Green 20 November 2013 | 11
cost of learning curve statistical analysis Decline Maturity Sales Innovation Adoption Price The Power of Zero: Optimizing Value for Next Generation Green 20 November 2013 | 12
cost of learning curve statistical analysis 1 2 3 Price The Power of Zero: Optimizing Value for Next Generation Green 20 November 2013 | 13
case studies
435 indio BNIM | Integral Group | Davis Langdon/AECOM The Power of Zero: Optimizing Value for Next Generation Green | 17 May 2013 | 15
concepts Sunnyvale, CA Sharp Development RMW Architecture 30,000 gsf Net Zero within standard budget • Passive night cooling • Upgraded exterior insulation with thermal mass walls • Ceiling fans extend comfort temperature range • Custom operable skylights use prevailing breezes to induce internal airflow • High performance glazing – no need for external shades • Daylighting to all occupied spaces • Skylights designed to provide equal light levels in summer and winter, and 15% higher levels at equinox • High efficiency LED lighting (.5W/sf) • Integral daylight, occupancy, and temperature sensors at every light fixture • Individually controlled desk fans and task lights • Metering by load type (lighting, plug loads, mechanical) • Building energy use dashboard The Power of Zero: Optimizing Value for Next Generation Green 20 November 2013 | 16 • Occupancy sensor controlled plug strips
impact of night purge: typical day OA Temp OA Temp Closed Windows Automated Windows West Zone Air West Zone Air Temp Temp 80 °F 80 °F West Zone MRT West Zone MRT Slab Temp Slab Temp 75 °F 75 °F 70 °F 70 °F 65 °F 65 °F 60 °F 60 °F 55 °F 55 °F 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 BNIM | Integral Group | Davis Langdon/AECOM The Power of Zero: Optimizing Value for Next Generation Green | 17 May 2013 | 17
concepts: financial • Performance based lease provides carrot (and stick) for good occupant behavior • Added construction cost = $44/sf including 32,000 sf PV array • Drastically reduced reserve requirements for maintenance and HVAC • Reduced operating expenses – utilities, landscape, etc • Demisability to reduce churn costs • Unanticipated cost reductions (e.g. no mechanical screen) • IF actual energy use meets predicted, than the financial model is more profitable than standard practice (build to code) • Future projects – higher rents and lease rates The Power of Zero: Optimizing Value for Next Generation Green 20 November 2013 | 18
What does this mean? o High Performance Buildings are coming o Generally they are approaching market costs. o It is possible with the right team to building them at market costs o Generally the buildings are performing o Of the high performance buildings there is not a correlation between performance and cost. The Power of Zero: Optimizing Value for Next Generation Green 20 November 2013 | 19
BNIM | Integral Group | Davis Langdon/AECOM The Power of Zero: Optimizing Value for Next Generation Green | 17 May 2013 | 20
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