C ONCENTRATED S OLAR P OWER 2016 2016 Market Survey and Trends New CSP Market Segments Assessment Local Manufacturing Potential
Market Survey and Trends 2017-Mar-07 jservert@sta-solar.com 2
L IF IFE NEEDS ENERGY Geothermal Gravity Sun Nuclear Biomass Sun Sun energy creates: wind, waves, biomass, oil, coal, hydro. hydro Reliable, Clean, Safe, Secure, Wind Affordable Oil, Gas, Coal jservert@sta-solar.com Waves
CSP T ECHNOLOGIE IES A VAIL ILABLE • Conceptually similar, concentrate solar DNI and generate electricity via thermodynamic cycle • Parabolic Dish-Stirling is ill-suited for TES, omitted from study 2017-Mar-07 jservert@sta-solar.com 4
H YBRIDIZ IZING CSP -100% RENEWABLE CSP+PV CSP+WIND CSP CSP TES TES ELECTRIC HYBRIDIZATION Wind Steam Turbine PV Steam Turbine Turbine ELECTRICAL GENERATION ELECTRICAL GENERATION CSP+BIOMASS CSP+GEOTHERMAL GEOTHERMAL Biomass Steam Turbine Boiler THERMAL CSP Steam Turbine HYBRIDIZATION ELECTRICAL CSP ELECTRICAL GENERATION GENERATION 2017-Mar-07 jservert@sta-solar.com 5
H YBRIDIZ IZING CSP-F OSSIL IL FUELS Solar-aided power gen. (SAPG) Integrated Solar CC (ISCC) Gas HRSG CSP Turbine Coal / Fuel / Steam Turbine Boiler LOW SOLAR Steam SHARE Turbine ELECTRICAL ELECTRICAL CSP GENERATION GENERATION Decoupled Solar CC (DSCC) DSCC with PV CSP CSP Gas Gas Turbine TES TES Turbine HIGH SOLAR SHARE Steam Steam PV Turbine Turbine ELECTRICAL GENERATION ELECTRICAL GENERATION 2017-Mar-07 jservert@sta-solar.com 6
Trend in Technology choice I NSTALLED C APACIT ITY Technology choice, actual LF 6% PT DS 79% 0% CT 12% HY 3% PT HY CT DS LF 2017-Mar-07 jservert@sta-solar.com 7
S TATUS IN IN MENA C OUNTRIES • MENA CSP CTF Investment Plan has been a driving force in the region • All MENA countries under study have signed the Paris Agreements, most have submitted INDCs Implementation Cost of Country GHG Target Type Greenhouse gas emission implementation Period Baseline scenario Algeria 2021-2030 7-22% by 2030 target Egypt 2015-2030 Not applicable USD 73 million Baseline scenario Jordan 2013-2020 1,5% by 2030 compared to BAU target Baseline scenario Morocco -- 32% by 2030 compared to BAU target 7t CO2 per capita in 2010, target in 2030: 3,4t CO2per Tunisia 2015-2030 Intensity Target USD 45 billion capita. (48% reduction) Libya Not submitted Saudi Arabia 2021-2030 130 million tons of CO2eq avoided annually by 2030 Kuwait Actions only Oman 2020-2030 Fixed Level Target GHG emissions growth by 2% 2017-Mar-07 jservert@sta-solar.com 8 UAE Not applicable
S TATUS OF OF CSP MARKETS Technology Focus 2017-Mar-07 jservert@sta-solar.com 29
CSP T ECHNOLOGY C OMPARIS ISON Technology PT LF DS CT Typical size (MW) 10 – 280 1 – 125 1 10 – 135 Concentration Factor 70 – 80 25 – 100 600 – 4000 600 – 1200 Capacity Factor (%) 30 – 50 20 – 30 20 – 30 40 – 70 Operation Temperature (ºC) 293 – 393 140 – 275 250 – 700 290 – 565 Solar Electric perf. (%) 16 – 18 9 – 11 12 – 25 16 – 20 Installed worldwide (MW) 4,336 319 3 689 Use of land (MWh/(ha·year)) 600 – 1,000 600 – 1,000 400 – 800 400 – 800 Maturity Commercial Commercial Demo Commercial Reflector Parabolic mirror Flat/curved mirror Paraboloid mirror Curved mirror Absorber tube w/ Absorber tube w/ Stirling engine / Receiver External / Cavity vacuum cover concentrator gas turbine Molten salt / HTF Thermal oil Saturated steam Air Water-steam Molten salts, Molten salts, Steam TES N/A direct / steam indirect accumulator accumulator TES capacity 4 – 12 hours < 1 hour N/A 6 – 14 / < 1 hours 2017-Mar-07 jservert@sta-solar.com 30 Hybridization capable Yes, existing Yes Unlikely Yes
CSP, , PV OR OR H YBRID ID ? • On production cost alone, PV is, today, significantly cheaper than CSP; it is also more modular and easy to design, construct, maintain and operate • System costs not reflected in LCOE • When dispatchability is required, TES is cheaper to install and to run, which gives CSP a competitive edge. If combined with cost reduction, utility scale makes more sense with CSP • Hybridizing CSP with fuels can ease the path, reducing emissions while providing track record to CSP, and time to amortize plants in operation 2017-Mar-07 jservert@sta-solar.com 31
200 LCOE Range for Different Technologies 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Note: Values in USD/MWh (2016). WACC = 8%, 25 year technical life for solar (PV-CSP) 2017-Mar-07 jservert@sta-solar.com 32
A N OTE ON ON S YSTEM C OSTS • Price of electricity value for the customers: as much as they need, where and when it is needed • LCOE production cost, regardless where or when • From LCOE to price integration costs: transmission lines (where) and backup (when) • Low capacity factor increases the unit cost of lines • Also ancillary services not provided by PV, wind • High RE mix integration costs can trump LCOE • CSP integration costs are as low as conventional, especially if hybridized 2017-Mar-07 jservert@sta-solar.com 33
A N OTE ON ON S YSTEM C OSTS (2 (2) • MENA countries have a firm generation portfolio, penetration of PV/wind is possible but it has a limit • A country/system level analysis is required to ensure grid stability • Robust scenarios should be developed for medium/long term demand (economic & population growth) and generation (emission targets, system costs, impact of RE in wholesale market) 2017-Mar-07 jservert@sta-solar.com 34
CSP I NSTALLED C APACITY F ORECAST Methodology and Scenarios 2017-Mar-07 jservert@sta-solar.com 35
U NCERTAINTY IN IN P ROJECTIO IONS • Half a decade ago, expectations for CSP 45 deployment were much 40 Installed Capacity, GW 35 higher than the current 30 25 situation: most long- 20 15 term forecasts and 10 5 country plans have not 0 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 been fulfilled BAU-reference STE-GO2016 GP-IEA ID-optim ID-reference RD-reference • Scenarios must be RD-pessim Scenarios: BAU: business as usual cross-checked with cost ID: increased deployment RD: reduced deployment projections STE-GO: Solar Thermal Electricity Global Outlook 2016 GP-IEA: Greenpeace-IEA 2017-Mar-07 jservert@sta-solar.com 36
B USINESS A S U SUAL S CENARIO IO Scenario considering plants identified in the pipeline worldwide, up to 2025 • Operating • Under Construction • Under Development • Under Planning • Announced Constant growth after 2025 Scenarios: BAU: business as usual ± 20% region for optimistic- STE-GO: Solar Thermal Electricity Global Outlook 2016 pessimistic expectations GP-IEA: Greenpeace-IEA 2017-Mar-07 jservert@sta-solar.com 37
S CENARIO IN MENA IO IN • Under BAU 10 9 assumptions, 8 Installed Capacity, GW deployment is 7 6 moderate 5 4 • If exporting energy to 3 2 Europe is realized 1 0 (DESERTEC or similar) it 2016 2020 2025 2030 Algeria Egypt Jordan can be a total Kuwait Libya Morocco Saudi Arabia Tunisia UAE game-changer EXPORT MENA countries MENA pessimistic MENA optimistic 2017-Mar-07 jservert@sta-solar.com 38
C OSTS AND AND C OST T RENDS History and Forecast 2017-Mar-07 jservert@sta-solar.com 41
I MPACT ON LCOE CT ON Tower Parabolic Trough 15% 13% 59% 55% 30% 28% Investment cost O&M cost Investment cost O&M cost Financial cost Financial cost 2017-Mar-07 jservert@sta-solar.com 42
E LE LEMENTS I MPACT CTING C OST OST • Installed cost • Hard costs: hardware (machinery, structures, etc.) • Soft costs: services (engineering, design, installation, etc.) and project development (studies, permitting, etc.) • O&M cost • Fixed costs: permanent staff, insurance, land rental • Variable costs: auxiliary staff, spare parts, consumables • Capacity factor • Risk concentrated on investment (as opposed to conventional, risk concentrated on operation) 2017-Mar-07 jservert@sta-solar.com 43
C OST OST M ODELLING • Bottom-up model considering: • Learning by doing • Learning by researching log 2 𝑄𝑆 𝑗 𝑗 𝑗 · 𝑄 𝑧𝑓𝑏𝑠 · 𝐿𝑇 −𝑐 𝑗 𝑗 𝐷 𝑧𝑓𝑏𝑠 = 𝐷 0 𝑗 𝑄 0 • Economy of scale 𝑂 𝑗 𝑗 · 𝑄 𝑡𝑗𝑨𝑓 𝑗 𝐷 𝑡𝑗𝑨𝑓 𝑝𝑔 𝑢ℎ𝑓 𝑞𝑝𝑥𝑓𝑠 𝑞𝑚𝑏𝑜𝑢 = 𝐷 0 𝑗 𝑄 0 • Validation of parameters ( 𝑄𝑆 𝑗 , 𝑐 𝑗 , 𝑂 ) is carried out with historical data of whole plant costs 2017-Mar-07 jservert@sta-solar.com 47
C OST M ODELLING • Validation results show good correlation (r>90%) average is well represented • High dispersion (RMSD≈40%), large plant-to-plant variation • Average relative error ≈8%) 2017-Mar-07 jservert@sta-solar.com 48
Recomercialization C OST OST M ODELLING • Each component cost 𝐷 𝑗 correlates with one metric 𝑄 𝑗 • Nominal power sets the cost for: • Power block • BoP • EPC cost • Owner’s cost 2017-Mar-07 jservert@sta-solar.com 49
C OST OST M ODELLING • Each component cost 𝐷 𝑗 correlates with one metric 𝑄 𝑗 • Storage capacity sets the cost for: • Storage system Values were corrected for the different operation temperature in CT and PT 2017-Mar-07 jservert@sta-solar.com 50
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