“M ore than twenty years after the last census in Bosnia and Herzegovina, its effects are still evident in the ethnic politics of the country. BiH is now a post-war country of ‘two entities and three ethnicities,’ with a Constitution discriminating against all those who don’t belong to one of the privileged ‘constituent peoples,’ and a public discourse that is dominated by ethno-politics. The next census in April 2013 can be an opportunity for change, even though there are concerns that it may be conducted undemo- cratically. The new census provides a chance to protest against the current state of affairs. Through a civic campaign in which citizens refuse to declare themselves one of the three privileged ethnicities, the census can be a referendum on ending ethnic su- premacy and discrimination against ‘the Others.’ This campaign will be a chance for the birth of a new, civic constituency that will fi- nally have a common voice, make-up, agenda, and even representation. Civil society and all other stakeholders committed to civic values, including the international com- munity, should embrace this chance to establish the ‘Fourth BiH’ and join efforts in ” making it possible. —Darko Brkan, May 22, 2012
Creating a Civic Constituency in Bosnia and Herzegovina Darko Brkan Reagan-Fascell Democracy Fellow National Endowment for Democracy 22 May 2012 The views expressed in this presentation are those of the speaker and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Endowment for Democracy or its staff.
PRESENTATION OVERVIEW I. INTRODUCTION TO THE BASIC CONCEPTS II. THE CENSUS AND “THE OTHERS” III. THE ROAD TO “THE FOURTH BiH ” IV. THE CAMPAIGN V. RECOMMENDATIONS
1. BOS OSNIA NIA AND ND HE HERZEGOVINA GOVINA 1. 2. ET 2. ETHN HNO-PO POLITI LITICS CS 3. 3. CIVIC VIC CON ONSTITUENCY TITUENCY I. INTRODUCTION TO BASIC CONCEPTS
BASIC FACTS ON BiH – TERRITORY • Defined as a state by the Dayton Peace Agreement (1995) • Comprised of two entities • Republic of Srpska • Federation BiH • Federation BiH consists of 10 Cantons • Brčko District is an autonomous district
BASIC FACTS ON BiH – GOVERNMENT • State level • Presidency – 3 members • Two chamber parliament (15 + 42) 28 14 • Council of Ministries (10) • Republic of Srpska Entity • President and two vice presidents • Two chamber parliament (28 + 83) 83 8 8 8 4 • Government (17) 3 1? 9 5 • Federation BiH Entity • President and two vice presidents • Two chamber parliament (58 + 98) 98 • Government (17) 17 17 17 7 • 10 cantonal parliaments and governments ˃5 - Croat - Bosniak - Serb - Other - Any
ETHNIC SOCIETY IN BiH – THE DOMINANT THREE Main Characteristics • Defined in the constitution • “ Bosniaks, Croats, and Serbs, as constituent peoples (along with Others), and citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina hereby determine that the Constitution of Bosnia and Herzegovina is as follows …” • Enshrined in the legislation • Election legislation, civil service legislation, human rights protection legislation, etc. • Public discourse dominated by ethno-politics • Ethnicity protection presumed to justify any public action
ARGUMENTS FOR ETHNO-POLITICS • Majority of the population identifies with one of the three ethnicities • Any of the ethnic groups is much bigger than any other non- ethnicity based group in the society • Each ethnic group has a common and inherent political agenda • Ethnic groups are the only relevant groups with a common political agenda • Ethnic groups have a unified voice and representation • Ethno-politics results from the necessity to protect ethnic groups • The three groups fought the war – current political reality is a compromise to end it
CIVIC CONSTITUENCY – CURRENT ASSUMPTIONS • Mostly perceived as “The Others” • Undefined in terms of make-up, agenda, or political representation • Lacks a common voice in public discourse • Geographically dispersed • Perceived as a minority
II. THE CENSUS AND “ THE OTHERS ”
THE LAST CENSUS • Conducted in March 1991 • The last accurate demographic set of data in BiH • The impact of the question on ethnicity • The impact of the 1990 elections – referendum on ethnicity • Result – current legislation related to ethnic representation is based on it
THE 1991 CENSUS - RESULTS 4,377,033 4500000 4000000 3500000 3000000 1,902,956 2500000 2000000 1,366,104 1500000 1000000 760,852 500000 0 TOTAL Bosniaks Serbs Croats TOTAL Bosniaks Serbs Croats 4,377,033 1,902,956 1,366,104 760,852 100.00% 43.48% 31.21% 17.38%
ETHNIC STRUCTURE – CURRENT ESTIMATES 3,900,000 4000000 3500000 3000000 2500000 1,900,000 2000000 1,400,000 1500000 1000000 500000 550,000 0 TOTAL Bosniaks Serbs Croats TOTAL Bosniaks Serbs Croats 3,900,000 1,900,000 1,400,000 550,000 100.00% 48.71% 35.89% 14.10%
ETHNIC STRUCTURE – CURRENT ESTIMATES 4,337,033 4500000 3,900,000 4000000 3500000 3000000 2500000 1,902,956 2000000 1,900,000 1500000 1,366,104 1,400,000 1000000 500000 760,852 0 550,000 TOTAL TOTAL Bosniaks 1991 Bosniaks 2006 Serbs 1991 Serbs 2006 Croats 1991 Croats 2006 1991 2006 TOTAL Bosniaks Serbs Croats 4,337,033 1,902,956 1,366,104 762,852 3,900,000 1,900,000 1,400,000 550,000
1991 vs. NOW? LET’S HAVE A LOOK AT HOW THE ETHNIC STRUCTURE HAS CHANGED...
THE MISSING LINK The 1991 Census 43.48 + 31.21 + 17.38 = 92.07 TOTAL Bosniaks Serbs Croats 7.93% = ??? 4,377,033 1,902,956 1,366,104 760,852 100.00% 43.48% 31.21% 17.38% Current Estimates 48.71 + 35.89 + 14.10 = 98.70 TOTAL Bosniaks Serbs Croats 3,900,000 1,900,000 1,400,000 550,000 1.30% = ??? 100.00% 48.71% 35.89% 14.10% “The Others” – all of the population of BiH that is not Bosniak, Serb or Croat - Constituent
“THE OTHERS” – ETHNIC PERSPECTIVE Constituencies of “The Others” • 17 ethnic minorities in BiH • People from mixed marriages (not deciding between their parents) • People who don’t identify with ethnicity How are they represented • Census 1991 – under-represented • Current estimates – not even considered • Public perception of “The Others” as non -constituent
“THE OTHERS” – EXAMPLES OF DISCRIMINATION • The name itself • Election legislation (Presidency, House of Peoples) • Sejdi ć -Finci case at the European Court of Human Rights • Many elected offices (House of Peoples in both entities, Governments on state and entity levels, parliaments on state and entity levels) • Civil service employment procedures and legislation • Even the institution of the Ombudsman for Human Rights • Police governing body
HOW MANY ARE “THE OTHERS”? • Ethnic minorities – probably between 100-150,000 people • People from mixed marriages – potential of several hundred thousand (12% of all marriages since the ’70s, over 25% in bigger cities) • Not identifying with ethnicity – several hundred thousand, mostly urban areas (reference – recent elections) • On the 1991 Census – 347,121 people identified as not one of the three main ethnicities
III. THE ROAD TO “ THE FOURTH BiH ”
GOALS OF “THE FOURTH BiH ” • Giving voice to the “Civic Constituency” • Introducing civil society (ie. society of citizens) as a legitimate alternative • Giving a public platform to all not favoring the exclusivity of ethnic representation • E nding discrimination against “The Others” • Providing the basis for ending ethnic supremacy
FOUR CONSTITUENCIES OF THE FOURTH BiH Traditional constituencies: “The Others” 1. Ethnic minorities 2. Undecided from mixed marriages 3. Not identifying with ethnicity The new constituency 4. Civic concept as a response to ethno-politics a. Don’t agree with ethnic representation as such b. Don’t agree with the discrimination c. A bridge from “The Others” to “The Civic Constituency”
IV. THE CAMPAIGN
ADVOCATES & CAMPAIGNS TO DATE Advocates for civic values in past years • NGOs • Political parties/politicians • Academics and engaged public figures • Individual citizens and informal civic groups • International community • Independent media outlets
THE CENSUS FORM G R A Đ A N I N
WHY IS CENSUS THE RIGHT TIME AND PLACE • It will have tangible results • It will have direct and indirect implications on the legal system and public discourse • All major actors, domestic and international, will be interested and engaged • It opens an arena to debate ethnicity issues • It is a chance to mobilize people • It is a chance for a broad coalition of civil society • It is a chance to include various stakeholders • It can counter all ethno-politics based arguments
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