Please ¡do ¡not ¡cite ¡or ¡circulate ¡ DRAFT ¡PAPER ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ Making Everyone Count: Data Limitations and Measurement Challenges for Arab States in the era of the 2030 Development Agenda Rita Maalouf, MPH, Romesh Silva, PhD, and Hala Youssef, PhD. September, 2017 ABSTRACT The 2030 development agenda has been accompanied by calls for a 'data revolution'. In this paper we review data gaps, data quality issues and methodological challenges associated with 2 critical indicators in population health in Arab States. We focus our review on the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) and contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR). Both U5MR and CPR were core indicators in the Millennium Development Goals and are also core indicators in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Our gap analysis focuses on reviewing data availability by way of surveys, censuses and administrative data for 21 Arab countries between 1990 and 2015. We then discuss population data preparedness for population- related SDGs in 3 Arab states – Egypt, Lebanon, Libya, and Oman – to exploring the diverse challenges faced by the region. We conclude by discussing the demographic measurement challenges in the SDG era with specific attention on subnational disaggregation challenges and their implications for national statistics systems. ¡
Please ¡do ¡not ¡cite ¡or ¡circulate ¡ DRAFT ¡PAPER ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ 1. ¡ Introduction In the lead up to 2015, which marked the conclusion of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and the launch of the 2030 development agenda, there has been some useful discussion on the completeness and quality of the evidence-base for monitoring of development progress. At the global level, United Nations (2015) noted that in 2014, 79% of low-/middle-income countries had at least 2 data points for 16 or more of the 22 official MDG indicators. Yet, many countries have weak administrative data systems and under- developed national statistical systems. Thus, there is still heavy reliance on household surveys (such as the demographic and health surveys, and multiple indicator cluster surveys) to estimate basic demographic and social indicators. Smith (2015) in his review of ESCWA country experiences of monitoring the MDGs, noted that ``only one third of the MDG indicators could be measured in the region using official statistics alone.'' Further, most Arab countries produced data for less than half of the MDG indicators. His study noted that the major challenges that affected MDG monitoring in the region were data gaps, non-compliance with methodological standards and lack of available disaggregated data. The newly-established Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), associated with the 2030 development agenda, lay out an ambitious set of 17 goals, 269 targets, and 230 indicators (United Nations, 2015). This is a considerable expansion from 8 goals, 21 targets, and 60 indicators in the MDGs. Further, given their call to `leave no behind', the SDGs outline that most indicators need to be disaggregated by sex urban/rural, where possible, but also by income, gender, age, race, ethnicity, and disability. In this vein, there have been recent calls for a `data revolution' to address the notable data gaps and data quality challenges in many low- and middle-income countries (Gonzales Morales et al., 2015). But much work remains to be done - including basic methodological development. The most recent report by the UN Secretary General on SDGs notes that 60% of the SDG indicators are classified as having an established methodology with either widely available or insufficient data and ¡
Please ¡do ¡not ¡cite ¡or ¡circulate ¡ DRAFT ¡PAPER ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ 40% of indicators are classified as having a methodology currently under development (United Nations, 2016). In the Arab region, there are several additional statistical challenges associated with the monitoring of population dynamics and development progress. These include the effect of conflict, instability and forced displacement on national statistics systems in the region, as well as the measurement challenges associated with large labor migration flows (El-Zein et al., 2016). The 2030 development agenda and its associated sustainable development goals outline an even more ambitious set of goals, targets and indicators than the millennium development goals (SDGs). Gaps in data availability pose challenges to national statistical systems and the regional statistical system in monitoring and evaluating regional, national and subnational progress towards the SDGs. Across the Arab region, there are notable gaps in availability of basic indicators on demographic and social conditions. In our assessment of SDG data readiness in the Arab region, we focus on two core SDG indicators - namely, the under-five mortality rate, and the contraceptive prevalence rate. 2. ¡ A Recap of Development Status at the Conclusion of the MDGs Era Global overview of MDG progress: In 2015, the achievements of the MDG period were summarized globally by “The Millennium Development Goals Report 2015”. The report noted global achievements made on several goals between 1990 and 2015; the number of people living in extreme poverty declined by more than half, the literacy rate among youth aged 15 to 24 increased to around 91%, the global U5MR declined by more than half etc. (United Nations, 2015). However, countries and regions showed different rates of progress. Although Sub-Saharan Africa achieved notable reduction (28%) in the percentage of people whose income is less than 1$ a day, it failed to achieve this target. A global 50% reduction in child mortality did not meet the MDG target of two third reduction. Despite having saved millions of lives, this substantial reduction was not ¡
Please ¡do ¡not ¡cite ¡or ¡circulate ¡ DRAFT ¡PAPER ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ equally distributed by wealth quintiles and residence; children in the poorest households and those living in rural areas are the most vulnerable (United Nations, 2015). The need to report on these goals, targets, and indicators required additional effort to that involved in achieving the MDGs. Developing countries struggling with reporting at the beginning of the MDG era were aided by an increasing number of household surveys to report on a variety of indicators (United Nations, 2015). However, the major challenges cited at the end of 2015 were the lack of timely and disaggregated data in various parts of the world. Regional overview of MDG progress: At the launch of the MDG era, 22 Arab countries committed to achieving the targets by 2015. However, this commitment was poorly translated as most countries lacked national policies and frameworks to achieve these goals. Several regional and international efforts were initiated to support and provide resources for monitoring and reporting. Every country selected a specific sub-set of indicators to report on which prevented a comprehensive comparison across the region (Smith, 2015). The final regional review for the Arab region was conducted in 2013 by the United Nations and the League of Arab states. Progress made prior to 2010 had stopped or even reversed for some indicators citing political transitions and conflicts as the possible cause (UN., & LAS, 2013). The report suggests that extreme poverty rates in Syria are expected to revert to their 1990s’ levels maybe even higher by 2015 (2013). Progress towards reducing by three-quarters the maternal mortality ratio has also been slowed between 2010 and 2015. By 2014, Lebanon and Oman were among the countries who achieved this goal and Egypt, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Tunisia achieved Goal 4 of reducing by two-thirds the Under-5 Mortality Rate (World Health Organization, 2014). By the end of 2015, Arab countries were at different stages of development and reporting. Data gaps and Methodological Challenges experienced during MDG Monitoring process: ¡
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