Local Advisory Committee Meeting #3 November 23, 2016 AGENDA - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Toronto Local Advisory Committee Meeting #3 November 23, 2016

AGENDA • Recap of June 1 Toronto LAC Meeting • Review of Toronto IRRP Implementation • IESO’s Ontario Planning Outlook • Distributed Energy Resources • Development of Agenda for next Toronto LAC meeting • Public Questions 2

TORONTO IRRP: IMPLEMENTATION UPDATE 3

IRRP Implementation Update • Plan update to be issued explaining changes – Lakeshore West train electrification / transmission reinforcement • Status of near-term projects • Resilience for vulnerable load customers 4

OVERVIEW OF THE ONTARIO PLANNING OUTLOOK 5

Planning Context under Bill 135 Bill 135, the Energy Statute Law Amendment Act , 2016 Received Royal Assent on June 9, 2016 6

IESO’s Ontario Planning Outlook • The Ontario Planning Outlook is a technical report that provides a 10-year review (2005-2015) and a 20-year outlook (2016- 2035) for Ontario’s electricity system • The report responds to a June 10, 2016, request from the Minister of Energy to have the IESO submit a technical report on the adequacy and reliability of Ontario’s electricity resources The OPO: • Considers a range of potential long-term electricity demands • Provides insights and considerations for the operational needs associated with The report can be found on the main page of the IESO’s implementing low carbon resources, website @ ieso.ca electrification and the growth of distributed energy resources 7

Four Outlooks Net Energy Demand (or low demand outlook), which explores the implications of lower electricity demand Across Demand (or flat demand outlook), which explores a level of long-term demand Outlooks that roughly matches the level of demand that exists today (or higher demand outlooks), which explore higher levels of demand driven by different levels of electrification associated with policy choices on climate change 8

Conservation • All four outlooks reflect achievement of the 2013 LTEP conservation target and the Conservation First Framework. • To be achieved through a combination of conservation programs and building codes and equipment standards. • The Achievable Potential Study results identify that the existing conservation targets and planned savings are feasible. The LTEP process and results of the Achievable Potential Study will help inform the review of conservation targets as part of the IESO’s mid -term review process. 9

Outlook for Installed Capacity 10

Available Supply at the Time of Peak Demand Relative to Total Resource Requirements 11

Current Technology Characteristics Operating Load Frequency Capacity Contribution to Contribution to LUEC Capacity Energy Reserve Following Regulation Factor Winter Peak Summer Peak ($/MWh) Depends on Depends on Conservation Yes Yes No No No Depends on Measure $30-50 Measure Measure Demand Response Yes No Yes Yes Limited N/A 60-70% 80-85% N/A Solar PV Limited Yes No Limited No 15% 3-5% 20-35% $140-290 Wind Limited Yes No Limited No 30-40% 20-30% 11% $65-210 Bioenergy Yes Yes Yes Limited No 40-80% 85-90% 85-90% $160-260 Depends on Depends on Depends on Depends on Storage Yes No Yes Yes Yes technology/ technology/ technology/ technology/ application application application application Waterpower Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 30-70% 67-75% 63-71% $120-240 Nuclear Yes Yes No Limited No 70-95% 90-95% 95-99% $120-290 Natural Gas Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes up to 65% 95% 89% $80-310 12

Status and Drivers of Transmission Projects  No significant new transmission investments would be required in an outlook of flat electricity demand served by existing and currently planned resources  Additional transmission or local resources to address specific regional needs may be identified in the future as regional planning continues across the province  The need to replace aging transmission assets over coming years will also present opportunities to right-size investments in line with evolving circumstances 13

Electricity Sector GHG Emissions in Outlook B 14

Total Cost of Electricity Service in Outlook B 15

Conclusions  Because of current and past investments, Ontario is well-positioned to meet provincial needs until the mid-2020s, while continuing to adapt to significant change across the sector.  Implementation of the province’s climate change policies will have an impact on the demand for electricity, including through greater electrification of the economy.  In higher demand outlooks, additional investments in new resources (conservation, generation and transmission) would be required to meet the increase in demand. However, opportunities for increased conservation will also vary with increases and decreases in demand.  The total cost of electricity service over the planning outlook will be a function of demand growth, the cost of operating the existing system and the investments required in new resources to meet potential needs. 16

How to Participate  Go to www.energy.gov.on.ca/en/ltep / to read “Planning Ontario’s Energy Future”, a discussion guide to accompany the LTEP consultations.  Provide your feedback online through:  EnergyTalks consultation (talks.ontario.ca)  the Environmental Registry (www.ebr.gov.on.ca)  Attend one of the in-person consultation sessions:  Kingston, Nov 24  Windsor, Nov 28  Kitchener, Nov 28  London, Nov 29  Mississauga, Nov 30 17

DISTRIBUTED ENERGY RESOURCES (DER): OVERVIEW AND DISCUSSION 18

Distributed Energy Resources: Outline • Part One: DER Technologies – Overview of Technologies – Program approaches in Ontario and Elsewhere • Part Two: Committee Input and Discussion – Opportunities for DER in Toronto – DER Benefits – DER Challenges 19

DER Technologies: Solar Photovoltaic • Highly diverse in size and location • Output tends to coincide with summer peaks • Prices have steeply declined • Can pair with storage to increase dependability • Currently almost 1,500 solar PV FIT projects are contracted in the City of Toronto (~86 MW) – Range in size from 0.7 kW to 500 kW (0.5 MW) • Larger penetration can shift the “peak” to evening 20

Installed Solar PV Cost Projections (Ontario) $3,000 Ontario Installed Cost (2015-$/kW) $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 Residential Rooftop Solar PV (3-10 kW) Commercial Rooftop Solar PV (100 kW) Commercial Rooftop Solar PV (500 kW) $500 Small-Scale Ground-Mounted Solar PV (500 kW) Utility-Scale Ground-Mounted Solar PV (> 5 MW) $- 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 21

DER Technologies: Energy Storage • Very flexible in terms of modular sizing (kWh to tens of MWh’s ) • Can be paired with solar PV to improve capacity / dependability • Prices high today but forecast to decline over the next several years • Current pilot and demonstration projects are actively exploring various value streams – Managing demand, improving power quality, integrating renewable resources, etc. – Technologies evolving (batteries, flywheel, CAES, etc.) 22

DER Technologies: Wind, Water, Biomass • Wind and water opportunities are extremely limited in built up / urban areas • Some potential biomass applications (e.g., wastewater treatment facilities) • Provincial moratorium on offshore wind development in place • Two wind turbines in Toronto (3 kW + 750 kW) • Potential for on-shore wind is limited in Toronto • Significant off-shore wind potential in Lake Ontario • No known waterpower opportunities in Toronto • Limited biogas/biomass opportunities in Toronto 23

DER Technologies: Small-scale Gas (Backup) • Provides security / resilience benefits to the customer • Large range of installation sizes / applications • In larger buildings a minimum level of emergency backup capacity is a Building Code requirement Mainly based on enhancing customer resilience: • Used in commercial, industrial and multi-unit residential settings to provide backup supply • These resources, if used to supplement a customer’s power needs, could reduce peak demand needs 24

Combined Heat and Power (CHP) Heat • Generates thermal and electrical 50% Electricity energy using a single fuel source 30% • Total system efficiency can be high, but subject to wide range • Can be economic when sized to Fuel in 100% meet thermal demand • May produce electricity whether needed or not 20% Losses, waste heat CHP applications include hospitals, campuses, commercial centres, high-density residential • Maximizing efficiency means sizing / operating the system according to the heating load 25

Conservation and Demand Management • CDM resources are also part of a distributed solution – Demand Response • Through incentives, technology or contractual arrangements, customers reduce their electricity usage when the system peaks – Energy Efficiency • Measures such as LED lighting or other retrofits that reduce electricity usage throughout the day (or night) – Building Codes and Appliance Standards • Requiring buildings to built more efficiently, or limiting the market to more efficient appliances, etc. – Ontario Building Code, Toronto Green Building Standard, Energy Star, etc. 26