Lisa B. Beever, James W. Beever, Whitney Gray, Dan Trescott, Judy Ott Southwest Florida Chapter of the Audubon Society Southwest Florida Chapter of the Audubon Society January 20, 2011
Climate Ready Estuaries – Partnership with 15 NEPs and EPA Partnership with 15 NEPs and EPA Barnegat Bay NEP www.epa.gov/cre
Why Charlotte Harbor NEP? y C a otte a bo • Host SWFRPC 2 • Host SWFRPC 2 decades of storm surge modeling & g g hurricane planning. • 2001 500-yr & 2008 100-yr droughts. 100 d ht • 2004 Category 4 land- falling storm; Hurricane falling storm; Hurricane Charley. • Climate-aware Climate aware population.
North Captiva Island breach USGS photo Mote Marine Laboratory Brad Robbins, Michelle Gitfler, Anamari Boyes
Comprehensive Comprehensive Conservation and Management Plan Management Plan SG-Q: Build capacity for communities and their local leadership to their local leadership to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change through joint efforts.
Projects in support of SG-Q • Regional Vulnerability Assessment (2007-2009) • Punta Gorda Adaptation Plan (CRE 2008-2009) Punta Gorda Adaptation Plan (CRE 2008 2009) • Vulnerability Assessment Lite (2009-2010) • CC Environmental Indicators (CRE 2009-2010) CC Environmental Indicators (CRE 2009 2010) • Model Ordinances/Comp Plan (CRE 2009-2010) • Punta Gorda Comp Plan amend (2009 2010) • Punta Gorda Comp Plan amend (2009-2010) • Salt Marsh Adaptation (2009-2012) • Seagrass response to SLR (2009) • Seagrass response to SLR (2009) • Lee County Resiliency Plan (2009-2010) • Conceptual Ecological Models (CRE 2010-2011) C t l E l i l M d l (CRE 2010 2011) • Bonita Springs Adaptation Plan (Battelle pilot)
Significant Potential Climate Changes & Grouped Effects Changes & Grouped Effects • Air Temperature and Chemistry • Water Temperature and Chemistry W t T t d Ch i t • Climate Instability • Altered Hydrology • Altered Hydrology • Sea Level Rise • Geomorphic Changes p g • Habitat and Species Changes • Land Use Changes • Human Economy H E • Human Health • Infrastructure • Infrastructure • Variable Risk
Potential Impacts of Climate Change Critical Facilities Critical Facilities Cultural Resources Cultural Resources Emergency services Historic districts Communications Lighthouses Solid waste Water supply and wastewater Transportation Transportation Energy supply Human Health Weather-related mortality Infectious diseases Air Quality: respiratory illnesses Climate Change Climate Change Drivers and Stressors Water Resources Changes in water supply Water quality Increased competition for water Increased competition for water Coastal Resources Erosion of beaches Erosion of beaches Inundate coastal lands Economic Costs to defend communities Activities Agriculture Wildlife and Forestry y Tourism Ecosystems Building Shift in ecological zones Ocean economy Loss of habitat and species Mining Damage to habitats
NOAA Tide Station in Fort Myers NOAA Tide Station in Fort Myers Rate of change = approximately 1 inch per decade Mean Sea Level Trend 1965 – 2006 from NOAA Tide Station at Fort Myers
In the last 100 years SW Fl has: In the last 100 years, SW Fl has: • Increased avg air temp 1.2 o F, Arcadia 0. • Increased annual # days >90 o F by 12 Increased annual # days >90 F by 12. • No change in total rainfall. • Increased % rain in rainy season by 6. I d % i i i b 6 • Increased sea level by 8 inches.
David Zierden, State Climatologist
Patterns of Average Temperature Patterns of Average Temperature
USGCRP 2009 1961-1979 from cool period 1961 1979 from cool period
Adaptation Plan for a small city, Punta Gorda
Objective 2.4.2: Address the impacts of sea level rise, and seek strategies to combat its effects on the b t it ff t th shoreline of the City. Policy 2.4.2.1: The City will work with the SWFRPC to determine potential sea d t i t ti l level rise impacts on the Coastal Planning Area. Measurement: Completion and implementation of d i l t ti f developed coastal studies or development of model scenarios.
April 9, 2009 Public Workshop • Card Game (brainstorm & prioritize vulnerabilities) www.thiagi.com/games.html Group Scoop
April 9, 2009 Public Workshop • Envelopes Game (brainstorm adaptation options)
April 9, 2009 Public Workshop • Thumbs up/down (Consensus on vulnerabilities)
Vulnerabilities Vulnerabilities Citizen Priority Vulnerabilities SWFRPC Grouped Vulnerabilities Altered Hydrology Altered Hydrology Habitat Degradation Habitat Degradation Storm Severity/Climate Instability Inadequate Water Supply Water Temperature & Chemistry Flooding Flooding Habitat and Species Changes Unmanaged Growth Sea Level Rise Water Quality Degradation Geomorphic (Landform) Changes Air Temperature & Chemistry Education Infrastructure Lack of Money/Finance Human Economy Human Economy Economy Human Health Fire Land Use Changes Insurance Insurance Variable Risk
June 2, 2009 Public Workshop • Board Game (Locate, prioritize, discard adaptations)
Prioritized Vulnerabilities The top consensus adaptations for each area of vulnerability include: 1. Fish and Wildlife Habitat Degradation; 1. Seagrass protection and restoration 2. Inadequate Water Supply; adequa e a e Supp y; 2. Xeriscaping and native plant landscaping. e scap g a d a e p a a dscap g 3. Flooding; 3. Explicitly indicating in the comprehensive plan which areas will retain natural shorelines shorelines. 4. Unchecked or Unmanaged Growth; 4. Constraining locations for certain high risk infrastructure 5. Water Quality Degradation; 5. Restrict fertilizer use. 6. Education and Economy and Lack of 6. Promote green building alternatives Funds; F d th through education, taxing incentives, green h d ti t i i ti lending. 7. Fire; 7. Drought preparedness planning 8. Availability of Insurance. 8. Implementation of the other adaptations, particularly 3 and 4.
A hypothetical comparison of relative costs of various sea-level rise adaptations for the City of Punta Gorda Alternative Alternative Rolling Rolling Bulkhead with Bulkhead with Gradual Sand Elevating the Gradual Sand Elevating the Armored Dike Armored Dike Easement Fill to 6 feet (The Filling to Infrastructure with 4 Major Galveston Keep Pace (The Venice Pumps (The Solution) (Volk 2008) Solution) New Orleans Solution) Shoreline h l Less than total: set at the boundary between current $58,332,852 $1,530,358,919 $76,500,000 $1,269,520,000 $2,157,450,984 uplands with freshwater wetlands and tidal coastal wetlands. d tid l t l tl d Total: with irregular outer mangrove shoreline without $69,770,641 $1,554,071,794 $91,500,000 $1,269,520,000 $3,773,093,875 overwash mangrove islands or many convoluted embayments y y Total: with irregular outer mangrove shoreline with convoluted embayments but not $77,777,108 $1,569,436,395 $102,000,000 $1,269,520,000 $3,868,536,601 the overwash mangrove islands with canals open to navigation with canals open to navigation
Charlotte County- Punta Gorda Metropolitan Planning Organization Metropolitan Planning Organization Hazard Mitigation Strategy Hazards Addressed Hurricane Storm Sea Level Rainfall Mitigation Options Erosion Force Wildfire Surge Rise Flooding Wind Accommodation Mitigation Options Mitigation and Recovery Planning Elevation Stormwater Drainage Design and Material Modifications Protection Mitigation Options Structural Shoreline Protection Non ‐ Structural Shoreline Protection Relocation/Retreat Mitigation Options Relocation and Right of Way Acquisition Monitor and Eventual Retreat
City of Punta Gorda W t Water Treatment Plant T t t Pl t • Replace 45 year-old dam structure • Add groundwater supply and membrane process (instead of reservoir expansion) • Expand facilities for growth. E d f iliti f th
City of Punta Gorda 4 Comp Plan Major Issues 1 1. Transportation Concurrency Exemption Area Transportation Concurrency Exemption Area 2. Energy Efficiency Alternatives 3. Climate Adaptation/SLR Strategies 3. Climate Adaptation/SLR Strategies 4. Declining Tax Revenues & Budget Cutbacks
Goal 1: Temporal and Spatial Context Goal 2: Armoring Filling Diking (Protection) Goal 2: Armoring, Filling, Diking (Protection) Goal 3: Redesign (Accommodation) Goal 4: Planned Relocation (Managed Retreat) Source of Graphic: Micheal Volk, UF
Lee Co. Resiliency Strategy • Outlines the essential elements of a resiliency strategy • Summarizes vulnerabilities S i l biliti • Summarizes input received from Lee County leadership and constitutional officers leadership and constitutional officers • Identifies strategies that Lee County could pursue to increase resiliency to the identified vulnerabilities increase resiliency to the identified vulnerabilities • Identifies ways to incorporate climate change resiliency into the Comprehensive Plan • Outlines monitoring and evaluation strategies.
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