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Lecture 2: The eschatology of lost decades Paul Krugman Growing - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jan 15, 2023 •293 likes •575 views

Lecture 2: The eschatology of lost decades Paul Krugman Growing surpluses 2000 2007 Developing Asia 38.6 406.5 Newly Industrialized 38.9 103.6 Middle East 71.9 254.1 Japan 119.6 211 Germany -32.6 250.3 Total 236.4 1225.5

  2. Lecture 2: The eschatology of lost decades Paul Krugman

  4. Growing surpluses 2000 2007 Developing Asia 38.6 406.5 Newly Industrialized 38.9 103.6 Middle East 71.9 254.1 Japan 119.6 211 Germany -32.6 250.3 Total 236.4 1225.5

  8. Lenders Future repayment Slope = 1+r Borrowers Lending, borrowing

  9. Lenders Future repayment Constraint Borrowers Slope = 1+r Lending, borrowing

  10. Employment cycles

  16. The textbook adjustment process Price level LRAS SRAS 1 SRAS 2 AD Output

  17. But in the liquidity trap, it probably looks like this … Price level AD AS Output

  21. So how does it end? Keynesian business cycle theory: “use, decay, and obsolescence” Koosian theory: rebuilding the balance sheets

  22. Use, decay, and obsolescence: US stock of autos: 135 million May 2009 auto sales: 484,000 Annual rate of 6 million? If so, more than 20 years to replace stock …

  24. Source: Richard Koo

  25. US entry into war Start of depression

  28. Source: OECD

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