League of American Orchestras Conference 2014 18 Brilliant Avenue, - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Looking Forward - Acting Now League of American Orchestras Conference 2014 18 Brilliant Avenue, Suite 200 l Pittsburgh PA 15215 l prescottassociates.com PRESCOTT & ASSOCIATES 1

Session Agenda Subscription, ticket buying, and donation trends Panel Guests: Anne DeMesa Director of Major & Planned Gifts, New Jersey Symphony Orchestra Sherri Prentiss Vice President of Marketing, Cincinnati Symphony and Pops Orchestra Delta David Gier Music Director, South Dakota Symphony Orchestra Open discussion PRESCOTT & ASSOCIATES 2

Data Source Patron Growth Initiative - Database of all classical concert purchases and donations for 10 large orchestras from FY05-FY11 (N = 772,000 HHs) Current Analysis: - orchestras offering Fixed and CYO subscriptions in all years from FY06-FY11 (ATL, BSO, CSO, CIN, HOU, NYP, POA, PSO) - total buyer households (N=625,912 HHs) - generational analysis from survey data (N=16,000 HHs) Note: Projected household trend lines in reported in this document are based solely on the average constant rate of change observed between FY06 and FY11 for the above orchestras. These are provided as a very rough estimate of what the distribution of buyer households might look like in 2020. Orchestras are encouraged to develop their own projections based on their data. PRESCOTT & ASSOCIATES 3

Generational Cohort Aging Trends Age in : 2010 2015 2020 2025 Early Silents 75-84 80-89 85-94 90+ Late Silents 65-74 70-79 75-84 80-89 Baby Boomers 45-64 50-69 55-74 60-79 Generation X 30-44 35-49 40-54 45-59 Millennials 15-29 20-34 25-39 30-44 PRESCOTT & ASSOCIATES 4

“Sustaining an audience is hard. It demands a consistency of thought, of purpose, and of action over a long period of time.” Bruce Springsteen PRESCOTT & ASSOCIATES 5

Total Buyer Households Total audience is growing - buyer households are up 13% since FY06. 180,000 156,688 153,166 151,254 150,467 146,073 139,113 120,000 60,000 0 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 Total HHs +7% with NYP excluded Fixed and CYO Subscriptions Data (ASO, BSO, CIN, CSO, HS, NYP, POS, PSO) PRESCOTT & ASSOCIATES 6

Total Buyer Households by Buyer Type Fixed Subs are on rapid decline; CYO and STB HHs are up. 180,000 ∆ 06 -11 139,113 146,073 150,467 153,166 151,254 156,688 +13% -24% 40,591 46,757 42,597 49,607 51,767 120,000 53,137 +70% 13,080 12,859 13,109 10,757 9,931 7,670 60,000 +32% 103,017 95,798 93,300 90,103 84,375 78,306 Fixed HHs CYO HHs STB HHs 0 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 - NYP accounted for 66% of CYOs in FY06; CYO +190% with NYP excluded - NYP STBs +55%; STBs +22% with NYP excluded Fixed and CYO Subscriptions Data (ASO, BSO, CIN, CSO, HS, NYP, POS, PSO) PRESCOTT & ASSOCIATES 7

Distribution of Total Buyer HHs Fixed Subs are 26% of all Buyer HHs, down from 38% in just five years. 100% 26% 28% 30% 33% Fixed HHs 35% 38% 80% CYO HHs 8% 9% 9% 7% 7% STB HHs 60% 6% 40% 66% 63% 61% 60% 58% 56% 20% 0% FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 Fixed and CYO Subscriptions Data (ASO, BSO, CIN, CSO, HS, NYP, POS, PSO) PRESCOTT & ASSOCIATES 8

Status Quo Projection of Buyer HHs At FY06-11 rate of change, Fixed Subs could represent 4% of all buyer households by 2020. 100% 4% 16% 19% 12% 21% 24% 26% 28% 30% Fixed HHs 33% 35% 38% 80% 10% 9% 9% CYO HHs 8% 8% 9% 9% 7% STB HHs 7% 60% 6% 84% 40% 74% 72% 70% 68% 66% 63% 61% 60% 58% 56% 20% 0% FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY20 - - - - - - - - - - - - - Actual - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Projected - - - - - - - - - Based on avg. constant rate of change per year Fixed and CYO Subscriptions Data (ASO, BSO, CIN, CSO, HS, NYP, POS, PSO) PRESCOTT & ASSOCIATES 9

Total Ticket Revenue Sourced by Buyer Type Fixed Subs continue to account for the bulk of ticket revenue, but down 19% by FY11. 100% 80% 26% of HHs 61% 67% 68% Fixed 69% 71% 75% 60% CYO STBs 40% 12% 11% 11% 9% 8% 6% 20% 66% of HHs 27% 23% 22% 21% 22% 19% 0% FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 Fixed and CYO Subscriptions Data (ASO, BSO, CSO, CIN, HS, NYP, POS, PSO) PRESCOTT & ASSOCIATES 10

# of Concerts Purchased and Average Spent/Yr Fixed Subscribers Core Fixed Subs maintaining high concert purchases and spending more for tickets. 100% $1,000 17% 17% 18% 18% 19% 21% $826 $809 $805 80% $780 $759 $752 $750 10+ 5-9 60% 3-4 66% $500 68% 68% 70% 66% 63% < 3 Avg. Ticket 40% Sales $250 20% 13% 14% 13% 12% 12% 12% 4% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 0% $0 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 Average #: 7.7 7.6 7.8 7.8 7.9 8.0 Fixed and CYO Subscriptions Data (ASO, BSO, CIN, CSO, HS, NYP, POS, PSO) PRESCOTT & ASSOCIATES 11

# of Concerts Purchased and Average Spent/Yr CYO Subscribers Average # of concerts and spending much lower for CYOs but ticking up. 100% $1,000 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 5% 32% 29% 31% 33% 44% 34% 80% 35% 39% $750 10+ 5-9 60% 3-4 $498 $500 < 3 $455 $440 $439 $433 $420 Avg. Ticket 45% 40% 58% Sales 55% 54% 51% 43% $250 20% 17% 13% 11% 11% 10% 10% 0% $- FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 Average #: 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.7 5.1 Fixed and CYO Subscriptions Data (ASO, BSO, CIN, CSO, HS, NYP, POS, PSO) PRESCOTT & ASSOCIATES 12

# of Concerts Purchased and Average Spent/Yr Single Ticket Buyers Vast majority of STBs purchase one concert with very low average ticket sales. Flat through FY11. 100% $1,000 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 6% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 11% 80% $750 5+ 3-4 60% 2 $500 1 84% 84% Avg. Ticket 83% 83% 83% 80% 40% Sales $250 20% $146 $143 $138 $140 $134 $132 0% $- FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 Average: 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 Fixed and CYO Subscriptions Data (ASO, BSO, CIN, CSO, HS, NYP, POS, PSO) PRESCOTT & ASSOCIATES 13

Fixed Subscriber Migration Pattern FY06 Fixed Subscribers Fixed Subs more likely to lapse than purchase CYOs or single tickets. Strong cumulative effect. 100% N=53,137 HHs Fixed CYO 75% 52% STB 56% 64% Lapsed 73% 83% 50% 100% 4% 3% 4% 3% 4% 2% 2% 25% 2% 41% 37% 1% 2% 30% 23% 14% 0% FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 Fixed and CYO Subscriptions Data (ASO, BSO, CIN, CSO, HS, NYP, POS, PSO) PRESCOTT & ASSOCIATES 14

Distribution of Total Buyer HHs Generational Cohorts Boomers account for greatest share of HHs, Millennials showing growth. Average age declining. ∆ 06 -11 100% 10% 14% 17% 18% 20% +100% 23% 9% 10% 80% 10% 10% 10% +11% 10% Millennials 60% Gen X 44% 44% 42% 42% Boomers 42% -4% 40% Late Silents 40% Early Silents 26% 22% 22% 20% 21% -19 21% 20% 11% 11% 9% 8% 8% 8% -27% 0% FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 Mean Age: 57.5 55.4 54.0 51.5 54.0 53.4 Fixed and CYO Subscriptions Data (ASO, BSO, CIN, CSO, HS, NYP, POS, PSO) PRESCOTT & ASSOCIATES 15

Status Quo Projection of Buyer HHs Generational Cohorts By FY2020 Millennials could make up almost one-third of buyer HHs and Early Silents just 2%. 100% 10% 14% 17% 18% 20% 22% 23% 24% 26% 28% 9% 10% 38% 80% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% Millennials 10% 60% 44% Gen X 11% 44% 42% 42% 42% Boomers 40% 41% 41% 40% 40% 40% Late Silents 38% Early Silents 26% 22% 22% 20% 21% 21% 20% 19% 18% 17% 16% 10% 11% 11% 9% 8% 8% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 2% 0% FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY20 - - - - - - - - - - - - Actual - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Projected - - - - - - - - - Based on avg. constant rate of change per year PRESCOTT & ASSOCIATES 16

Average Ticket Sales Generational Cohort Buyers Silents spend at much higher rates than younger generations. Little indication of significant increases as Gen Xers/Millennials age. $750 Early Silents Late Silents Boomers Gen X Millennials $636 $604 $597 $592 $578 $543 $537 $531 $516 $509 $500 $500 $500 $389 $377 $374 $372 $364 $363 $265 $255 $250 $247 $221 $206 $197 $144 $137 $125 $122 $118 $113 $0 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 Fixed and CYO Subscriptions Data (ASO, BSO, CIN, CSO, HS, NYP, POS, PSO); PGI Survey Data PRESCOTT & ASSOCIATES 17

Donation Trends PRESCOTT & ASSOCIATES 18