LCLUC Program / NEESPI : The Update Garik Gutman, NASA Headquarters, Washington, DC, USA 1
Land-Cover/Land-Use Change Program • LCLUC is an interdisciplinary scientific theme within NASA’s Earth Science program. The ultimate vision of this program is to develop the capability to perform repeated global inventories of land-use and land-cover from space , to develop the scientific understanding and models necessary to simulate the processes taking place, and evaluate the consequences of observed and predicted changes • http://lcluc.hq.nasa.gov/ 2
LCLUC: Drivers of Disturbance/Stress Drivers of Disturbance/Stress n Natural Drivers n Socio-Economic Drivers u Natural hazards (fires, droughts, Natural hazards (fires, droughts, • Technological change and Technological change and • u floods, hurricanes, landslides) macro- -economic economic floods, hurricanes, landslides) macro transformations transformations u Invasive species Invasive species u • Political economy and Political economy and • u Anthropogenic Drivers Anthropogenic Drivers u institutional change institutional change u Agricultural changes Agricultural changes u • Values, attitudes, beliefs, Values, attitudes, beliefs, • u Landscape modification, e.g. Landscape modification, e.g. u individual and household individual and household urbanization urbanization behavior behavior u Forest clearing, logging & fires Forest clearing, logging & fires u • Human population Human population • u Grazing by domestic animals Grazing by domestic animals dynamics 3 dynamics u
LCLUC Consequences/Impacts u Forestry and agriculture Forestry and agriculture u u Wetlands and coastal zone Wetlands and coastal zone u u Water resources Water resources u u Carbon storage and release Carbon storage and release u u Biodiversity Biodiversity u u Habitat degradation and fragmentation Habitat degradation and fragmentation u u Atmospheric processes Atmospheric processes u 4
Tools • Remote sensing satellite observations – Optical • High resolution multispectral (Landsat) • Moderate resolution multispectral (AVHRR, MODIS) • Lidars – Microwave • Passive • Radars • Airborne and in situ observations • Intensive field campaigns • Basic process studies and case studies • Modeling and integrative data analysis • Data and information systems 5
Program Make-up • Total 70 projects – LCLUC Monitoring/Modeling – LCLUC/Carbon Cycle – LCLUC/Water Cycle – Climate/LCLUC – Environment (air/water quality), biodiversity 6
LCLUC Book 7
LCLUC Support of Major Regional Initiatives • LBA: Field Campaign in Amazon • NACP: North American Carbon Project • NEESPI: Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative 8
Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI) • International, multi-agency program for Earth science research in northern Eurasia focused on ecosystem-climate interactions • Comprehensive: Almost a quarter of the global land, representing most of the existing geo-botanic zones except for tropical; multi- disciplinary program covering basic terrestrial, environmental disciplines • Important: An area of the globe with early indications of the global climate change • Challenging: many countries, many languages, different mentalities, remote locations • Advantageous: plenty of data, talents; existing infrastructure 9
Zoom out from Krasnoyarsk, Siberia 10
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Central Asia Far East Mongolia Kazakhstan China Russia Uzbekistan Japan Tadjikistan Korea Kirgizstan Turkmenstan Baltics France NEESPI England Estonia Germany Latvia Lithuania USA Canada Eastern Europe Caucasus Fennoscandia Ukraine Georgia Finland Poland Armenia Sweden Hungary Azerbaidjan Norway Bolgaria Romania Belarus Moldova 12
NEESPI Science Agenda Focus on climate-ecosystem interactions and societal impacts in boreal and non-boreal zones of Northern Eurasia Goal: • To evaluate the role of anthropogenic impacts on the regional ecosystems and climate and how it may affect the global climate • To evaluate the consequences of global changes for regional environment, the economy and the quality of life in the region 13
MODIS 1-km true color composite: August 20-28 2004. 14 Shaded relief adjustment using SRTM GTOPO30 elevation data. Produced by Mutlu Ozdogan, NASA GSFC
NASA Role in NEESPI • Lead the NEESPI remote sensing component – Develop and maintain a regional satellite data base with raw data and products – Develop and distribute special remote-sensing based datasets useful for climate modeling – Facilitate access to satellite data and products by NEESPI investigators – Support regional calibration/validation activities • Contribute to the support of Focus Research Centers, Science Data Centers, NEESPI logistics • Support regional network activities • Support NEESPI projects with a remote sensing component that were peer-reviewed and selected for 15 funding by NASA
Satellite ground stations by RDC ScanEx NOAA HRPT TERRA/MODIS 16
NEESPI Deliverables: to have in ~10 years • A suite of process –oriented models for each major terrestrial process in all its interactions • A suite of global and regional models that seamlessly incorporate all regionally specific feedbacks associated with terrestrial processes • An integrated observational knowledge data base for environmental studies • A system in place that can serve the emergency needs of the society 17
NEESPI Senior Scientists by country (300+ scientists from >160 institutions; ~50 projects) – Russia 84 scientists 36 institutions • including Moscow 50 scientists 18 institutions • most active Institution: RAS Sukachev Institute of Forest Research (6sci. in 7 projects) – China 26 scientists 15 institutions • most active Institution: Institute of Botany, Chinese Acad. Sci. (5 scientists) – United States 99 scientists 46 institutions • most active institution: University of Maryland (9 scientists in 9 projects) – European Union 37 scientists 26 institutions 10 countries • including Finland 10 scientists 5 institutions • including Germany 10 scientists 8 institutions – Japan International Arctic Research Center + 3 institutions – Canada 4 scientists 4 institutions – Other countries 37 scientists 33 institutions 14 countries 18
NEESPI Institutions 18 institutions in Moscow participate in 21 projects Red dots: Principal Investigators Blue dots: Co-Investigators Green dots: Collaborators Squares: Focus Research Centers and Science Data Support Centers 19 6 institutions in Beijing participate in 5 projects
NEESPI Projects • >31 NASA projects • >16 non-NASA projects • The first NEESPI Science Team meeting held in February 2006 • NEESPI will contribute to IPY (2007-2008) 20
NASA Research Announcement NRA • ROSES-2006 – LCLUC – this year no solicitation – International Polar Year (IPY) – Interdisciplinary Science (IDS) Program – Earth Observation Satellites (EOS) – Other (see http://nspires.nasaprs.com/external) • ROSES-2007 – Published in Jan 2007 – Will include Carbon Cycle solicitation • Time lapse: an application - project start is about 1 year • Usually 3-yr projects, each year about $200,000 21
Boreal NASA NEESPI Projects: Carbon/Ecosystems/LCLUC • Carbon dynamics modeling – Modeling the Carbon Dynamics of the Eurasian Boreal Forest – An Integrated Analysis of Flux Tower Data, Remote Sensing Data and Biogeochemical Modeling – Comparative Studies on Carbon Dynamics in Disturbed Forest Ecosystems • Land-cover change monitoring – Land-Use and Land-Cover Dynamics of China – Monitoring/Validating the Distribution and Change in NEESPI Land Cover – LCLUC in Yamal Peninsula and Novaya Zemlya – Forest structure derived from EOS data • Fires – Biomass Burning in Northern Eurasia – Quantifying Effects of Fire Intensity/ Severity/ Burning Conditions on Carbon Stocks and Exchanges – Weather-Extreme Fire Events-LCLUC relationships in the Changing Climate of Siberia • Ecosystems and Biodiversity – Impact of LCLUC on Siberian tigers 22 – Impacts of LCLUC on biodiversity in Eastern Europe
Non-Boreal NASA NEESPI Projects: Carbon/Ecosystems/LCLUC • Agriculture and forestry • Carbon, Climate and Managed Land in Ukraine: Integrating Data and Models of Land Use • Quantifying the Effects of Land Use Change on Carbon Budgets in the Black Sea Region • Carbon in arid regions • Carbon-Land Use-Climate Interaction in the Semi-Arid Regions • LCLUC-aersol interactions Role of LCLUC and atmospheric dust loading and their coupling on climate • change in dry-lands 23
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