Earth System Modeling at MPI-M Reiner Schnur and many others at - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Earth System Modeling at MPI-M Reiner Schnur and many others at MPI-M NEESPI workshop @ Princeton December 4, 2006

MPI-ESM: Processes Sun Emissions Atmosphere Dynamics Aerosols Chemistry Land Surface Dust DMS CO 2 Momentum Hydrology Energy Photosynthesis Water Phenology Respiration Ocean Dynamics Sea-ice River runoff Biology Chemistry

MPI-ESM: Model Components Sun Emissions Atmosphere ECHAM HAM MOZART Dust DMS CO 2 JSBACH Land Momentum Energy Water PRISM coupler (OASIS) MPI-OM HAMOCC Ocean

MPI-ESM: IPCC AR4 experiments Sun ECHAM5 Specified concentrations (GHG, SO 4 ) T63L31 Momentum Energy ECHAM5 HD Water PRISM coupler (OASIS) MPI-OM 1.5°

MPI-ESM Ocean: Horizontal Resolution (Only every 5 th grid line drawn)

MPI-ESM: IPCC AR4 Model Comparison v s , 2 I m Overall Performance Index courtesy Thomas Reichler & Junsu Kim, Univ. of Utah A combined measure of how well 21 different global climate models simulate 35 different observed climate features (time averaged, large scale quantities). Avg. of 21 #1 #2 models = 1.0 Normalized so that the average model score = 1.0; Values less than 1.0 are better. Lower Values = Smaller GFDL CM2.1 MPI-ESM Errors (i.e., greater agreement btwn the model simulation & observations)

MPI-ESM: IPCC Experiments Incl. Carbon Cycle Sun Specified concentrations ECHAM (non-CO 2 GHG, SO 4 ) T63L31 CO 2 JSBACH / HD Momentum Energy Water PRISM coupler (OASIS) MPI-OM HAMOCC

MPI-ESM: Carbon Cycle Model (JSBACH) MPI-ESM: Carbon Cycle Model (JSBACH)

MPI-ESM: IPCC Experiments Incl. Carbon Cycle C4MIP experiments:  Pre-industrial spinup run (286 ppm) Anthropogenic CO 2 emissions prescribed  (1860-2000 as observed; 2001-2100 SRES A2)  Feedback between carbon cycle and climate change calculated CO 2 used in radiation code  climate changes  No feedback pre-industrial CO 2 (286 ppm) used in radiation code  no climate change The difference in carbon fluxes between the coupled and uncoupled runs represents the impact of global warming on the carbon cycle.

MPI-ESM: C4MIP Experiments Annual 2m temperature 1980s 1990s ocean land ocean land IPCC TAR 1.9 ± 0.6 1.9 ± 1.1 a 1.7 ± 0.5 3.0 ± 1.1 a Roedenbeck et al. (2003) b 1.8 ± 0.3 2.2 ± 0.9 2.3 ± 0.2 2.6 ± 0.9 climate – carbon cycle model c 1.96 ± 0.07 2.18 ± 0.25 2.24 ± 0.07 2.01 ± 0.25 Comparison of simulated carbon uptake [PgC/yr] for 1980-1989 and 1990-1999 in coupled run with estimates from IPCC and a recent inversion study

MPI-ESM: C4MIP Experiments Average monthly deviation from annual mean atmospheric CO2 concentration Anomalies of Nino3 SST (solid) and of carbon uptake rate (dashed) in coupled run observed simulated

MPI-ESM: C4MIP Experiments Carbon Uptake [GtC] GtC/year Carbon uptake coupled – uncoupled 1860-2100 kg C/m2 positive feedback negative feedback