LCEM(IAMC/ IEEE) IEEE) LCEM(IAMC/ Tsinghua University Zhang - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

LCEM(IAMC/ IEEE) IEEE) LCEM(IAMC/ Tsinghua University Zhang Xiliang, Chai Qimin Sep 17, 2009 Tsukuba, Japan

Key Design Characteristics Participating Model: LCEM (Low Carbon Energy Model) – IAMC (Integrated Assessment Model for China) – GCAM & MESSAGE ‐ China Region – Model Type: Macroeconomic ‐ Energy System Hybrid Model – Integrated Assessment Model (IAM), using MAGICC as its atmosphere and climate model – Participating Modelers: Chai Qimin, Yue, Hu Guangping, Wang Yu, Zhang Jihong, Zhou Sheng, Zhang Xiliang, He – Jiankun Time Step: 5 years /10 years/ 15 years – Time Frame: 2005 to 2050 / 1990 to 2100 – Solution Type: Optimization / Dynamic Recursive – Equilibrium Type: General/ Market Equilibrium – Underlying Computing Framework: GAMS, C++ –

Inputs and Outputs Key inputs Demographics: – Population – Economic: – GDP, urbanization rate, industrial structure – Labor productivity, price and income elasticities – Resources: – Depletable resources by grade (e.g. fossil fuels and uranium) – Renewable resources by grade (e.g. wind, solar, biomass) – Technology: – Extraction, production, transformation and use technologies – Key outputs Economic: – GDP, energy prices (oil, gas, coal, biofuels, etc.) – Energy: – Production, transformation, end use, import and export – Agri ‐ Fore ‐ Land Use: – Production, consumption, trade, and land use – Emissions: – CO 2 emissions by source, non ‐ CO 2 emissions (CH 4 , N 2 O, etc.) –

Regional Scope & Other Detail Regional Details: Regional Scope: China – Number of Sub ‐ Regions: 1 or 3 – Energy Demand & Supply Details: Energy Demand Sectors: – Industry, Transportation, Building (Commercial, – Household), Agriculture Energy Supply Sectors: – Electricity Generation, Liquid Fuel Production, Gas Fuel – Production, Hydrogen Production, Chemical Feedstock

China Baselines 70 30 Others Biomass Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Natral Gas Oil Coal 60 25 ) R 50 E M LCEM 20 ( $ e S GDP, Primary Energy Consumption c 40 U t 5 M 0 2005 ‐ 2050 0 15 0 0 2 1 s × 30 n o i l l i 10 r T 20 - P D G 5 10 0 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 90 80 Others Biomass Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Natural Gas Oil Coal 80 70 70 60 ) R E 60 M ( GCAM 50 $ S e U GDP, Primary Energy Consumption c 50 t 5 0 M 0 40 1990 ‐ 2095 0 2 0 s 1 40 n × o i l l i 30 r T 30 - P D 20 G 20 10 10 0 0 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

T Scenarios

Scenarios for Emission Peaking year and Reduction Target 12 11 10 9 2 8 T1A O C t T0 G 7 T2 T1B 6 T3 5 T1C 4 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

T Scenarios T0 T1A T1B 70 70 70 Others Biomass Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Natral Gas Oil Coal Others Biomass Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Natral Gas Oil Coal Others Biomass Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Natral Gas Oil Coal 60 60 60 50 50 50 e c e 40 e t c t 40 c M t 40 M 0 M 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 × 30 1 × 30 × 30 20 20 20 10 10 10 0 0 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 T1C T2 T3 80 80 80 Others Biomass Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Natral Gas Oil Coal Others Biomass Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Natral Gas Oil Coal Others Biomass Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Natral Gas Oil Coal 70 70 70 60 60 60 50 50 e 50 e e c t c c t t M M M 0 0 0 0 40 0 40 1 0 40 1 1 × × × 30 30 30 20 20 20 10 10 10 0 0 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Scenarios under Full Participation 750ppm, 5.8W/m 2 550ppm, 4.4W/m 2 80 80 80 80 Others Biomass Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Natural Gas Oil Coal Others Biomass Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Natural Gas Oil Coal 70 70 70 70 60 60 60 60 ) ) R R E E M M ( ( 50 50 50 50 $ $ S S e e U U c c t 5 t 5 0 0 M M 0 0 40 40 40 40 0 0 2 2 0 0 s s 1 1 n n × × o o i i l l l l i i 30 30 30 30 r r T T - - P P D D 20 20 G 20 20 G 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 650ppm, 5.0W/m 2 450ppm, 3.4W/m 2 80 80 70 80 Others Biomass Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Natural Gas Oil Coal Others Biomass Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Natural Gas Oil Coal 70 70 70 60 60 60 60 ) ) R 50 R E E M M ( ( 50 50 $ 50 $ S S e U e 40 U c c t 5 t 5 0 M 0 M 0 40 40 40 0 0 2 0 2 0 s 0 1 s 1 n × n o × 30 o i i l l l i l 30 30 i r 30 r T T - - P P D 20 D 20 20 G 20 G 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095