KA KAW AJV JV South Africas economy in 2030: : Ren enai aiss - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

KA KAW AJV JV South Africa’s economy in 2030: : Ren enai aiss ssan ance e or or De Decay ay? André é Roux USB 29 Mei 2019 2019

F O R E S I G H T

F ourth Industrial Revolution O riental R ewriting the economic paradigm E mpowerment of individuals S aturation I nequitable/ divided world G rey H otter and drier T ele-everything

F ourth Industrial Revolution O riental R ewriting the economic paradigm E mpowerment of individuals S aturated I nequitable and divided G rey H otter and drier T ele-everything

% of workers needing to find new jobs due to automation in 2030 (MGI) 50 40 30 20 10 0 China USA India Japan Germany Mexico

WEF survey (2016) By 2025 …  10% of people wearing clothes connected to the Internet  1 trillion sensors connected to the Internet  The first robotic pharmacist in the USA  10% of reading glasses connected to the Internet  The first 3D-printed car in production  The first implantable mobile phone available commercially  5% of consumer products printed in 3D  Driverless cars equalling 10% of all cars in the USA  The first transplant of a 3D-printed liver  30% of corporate audits performed by artificial intelligence (AI)  Globally more trips/journeys via car sharing than in private cars  The first city with more than 50 000 people and no traffic lights  The first AI machine on a corporate board of directors WEF

Top 10 skills in 2020 1 Complex problem solving 2 Critical thinking 3 Creativity 4 People management 5 Co-ordinating with others 6 Emotional intelligence 7 Judgment & decision making 8 Service orientation 9 Negotiation 10 Cognitive flexibility WEF, 2016

30 largest economies ranked according to PPP GNI, 2017 Ranking Country Income PPP GNI PPP GNI Population Population PPP GNI per group 1) ($bn) (% of (m) (% of world) capita ($) world) 1 China UM 23 241.5 18.3 1 386.4 18.4 16 760 2 USA H 19 607.6 15.4 325.7 4.3 60 200 3 India H 9 448.7 7.4 1 339.2 17.8 7 060 4 Japan H 5 686.3 4.5 126.8 1.7 44 850 5 Germany H 4 274.0 3.4 82.7 1.1 51 680 6 Russia UM 3 721.6 2.9 144.5 1.9 24 890 7 Brazil UM 3 173.4 2.5 209.3 2.8 15 160 8 Indonesia LM 3 140.2 2.5 264.0 3.5 11 900 9 France H 2 939.3 2.3 67.1 0.9 43 790 10 UK H 2 810.0 2.2 66.0 0.9 42 560 WORLD TOTAL/ 127 307.8 7 530.4 16 906 AVERAGE World Bank, 2019

Ranking Country Income PPP GNI ($bn) PPP GNI (% Population Population PPP GNI per group 1) of world) (m) (% of capita ($) world) 11 Italy H 2 400.0 1.9 60.6 0.8 39 640 12 Mexico UM 2 304.5 1.8 129.2 1.7 17 840 13 Turkey UM 2 112.2 1.7 80.7 1.1 26 160 14 Korea H 1 973.0 1.5 51.5 0.7 38 340 15 Saudi Arabia H 1 804.2 1.4 32.9 0.4 54 770 16 Spain H 1 769.5 1.4 46.6 0.6 37 990 17 Iran UM 1 705.2 1.3 81.2 1.1 21 010 18 Canada H 1 691.1 1.3 36.7 0.5 46 070 19 Thailand UM 1 180.1 0.9 69.0 0.9 17 090 20 Australia H 1 160.1 0.9 24.6 0.3 47 160 WORLD TOTAL/ 127 307.8 7 530.4 16 906 AVERAGE World Bank, 2019

Ranking Country Income PPP GNI ($bn) PPP GNI (% Popula- Population PPP GNI per group 1) of world) tion (m) (% of capita ($) world) 21 Pakistan LM 1 148.4 0.9 197.0 2.6 5 830 22 Egypt LM 1 108.7 0.9 97.6 1.3 11 360 23 Nigeria LM 1 084.5 0.9 190.9 2.5 5 680 24 Poland H 1 060.2 0.8 38.0 0.5 27 920 25 Philippines LM 1 052.5 0.8 104.9 1.4 10 030 26 Malaysia UM 905.9 0.7 31.6 0.4 28 650 27 Argentina UM 897.2 0.7 44.3 0.6 20 270 28 Netherlands H 894.4 0.7 17.1 0.2 52 200 29 South Africa UM 742.6 0.6 56.7 0.8 13 090 30 Colombia UM 695.1 0.5 49.1 0.7 14 170 WORLD TOTAL/ 127 307.8 7 530.4 16 906 AVERAGE World Bank, 2019

2009: 664m 2009: 338m 2030: 680m 2030: 332m 2009: 525m 2009: 137m 2030: 3 228m 2030: 341m 2009: 181m 2030: 313m 2009: 1.9bn Global middle class 2030: 4.9bn Daily expenditure $10-$100 per day per person Oxford Martin School, 2013

We We sho houl uld act act pro-act activ ively ely and and manag anage econom omic ic gl glob obal alizatio ization … . to to relea lease se its its pos positi itive imp impact … . We We sho hould ld st stri rike a bala alance betw between eff ffic icie iency and nd equi uity to to ensu nsure that hat dif iffe ferent nt countrie ntries, s, di diff fferent nt so social ial st strata rata and and di diff fferent nt group ups of of people people all all sha hare in in th the be benefits nefits of of ec econo nomic mic gl glob obali alizatio zation. … . this is is is our un unshir irkable kable respon onsibi ibility ity as as leader ders of of our times. Ev Every de decis ision on on trade, rade, on on tax taxes, s, on on imm immig igratio ration, n, on on fo foreig ign af affair airs, s, will will be be made ade to to be benef nefit it Am Ameri rican wo workers and nd Am Ameri rican an fa families milies. We We mus ust prot otect ect our bo borders fr from om the he rav ravage ages of of ot other her countrie ntries mak aking ng our ur prod oducts ts, st stealin aling our com ompan anies ies, and nd dest destroyi ying ng our jobs jobs. Prot otectio tion wil ill lea lead to to great prosperi rity ty and strengt gth.

Lower growth path …. … is better than the alternative

2015 90% Share of girls of primary school age enrolled 1970 65% 2016 88% Share of 1-year olds who get at least one vaccination 1980 22%

2016 86% Adult literacy 1800 10% 2017 193 countries Women’s right to vote 1893 1 country

2017 65% Share of people with a cell phone 1980 0.0003% 2017 48% Share of people using the internet 1980 0%

The challenge of surviving prosperity

World’s richest 26 billionaires have as much money as the poorest 3.8bn people £ 1.1 trillion Unesco 2019

Productivity Age distribution W Europe G20 0-14 65+ 15-64 Total factor productivity growth Old worker ratio (RHS) 600 1 16 0.8 14 500 0.6 12 400 0.4 10 0.2 8 300 0 6 200 -0.2 4 100 -0.4 2 -0.6 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Computed from World Bank, 2017 UN

Asahi Glass Foundation

Ac Access cess to o tele le-ev ever erything ything  >300m Africans use the Internet (granting access to tele- education, tele- medicine)  Mobile money  100m active Facebook users  e-books; e-libraries

Selected implications

NIC scenarios for 2030 Scenario Brief description USA and Europe turn inward Stalled engines and globalisation stalls NIC, 2013

NIC scenarios for 2030 Scenario Brief description USA and Europe turn inward and globalisation Stalled engines stalls USA and China co-operate, leading to worldwide co- Fusion operation on global challenges NIC, 2013

NIC scenarios for 2030 Scenario Brief description USA and Europe turn inward and globalisation Stalled engines stalls USA and China co-operate, leading to worldwide Fusion co-operation on global challenges Gini-out-of-the- Economic inequalities bottle dominate NIC, 2013

KA KAW AJV JV South Africas economy in 2030: : Ren enai aiss - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

KA KAW AJV JV South Africas economy in 2030: : Ren enai aiss ssan ance e or or De Decay ay? Andr Roux USB 29 Mei 2019 2019 F O R E S I G H T F ourth Industrial Revolution O riental R ewriting the economic paradigm