1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. Inside ENGIE 4. 4. Tractebel Energia June 2, 2016 5. 5. 6. 6. 1
Disclaimer The information contained herein has been The Company and their respective affiliates, agents, prepared by ENGIE Tractebel Energia S.A. (“ENGIE directors, partners and employees accept no Tractebel Energia ”, “ Tractebel ” or “the Company”) liability whatsoever for any loss or damage of any solely for meetings to be held with investors and/or kind arising out of the use of all or any part of this potential investors. This material does not constitute material. offering material in whole or part, and you must You should consult your own legal, regulatory, tax, obtain further information before making an business, investment, financial and accounting investment decision in respect of the common advisers to the extent that you deem necessary, 1. 1. shares of the Company. and you must make your own investment, hedging This material has been prepared solely for or trading decision based upon your own judgment informational purposes and is not to be construed as and advice from such advisers as you deem 2. 2. a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities necessary and not upon any view expressed in this and should not be treated as giving investment material. advice. It is not targeted to the specific investment This material includes forward-looking statements 3. 3. objectives, financial situation or particular needs of subject to risks and uncertainties, which are based any recipient. No representation or warranty, either on current expectations and projections about express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, future events and trends that may affect the completeness or reliability of the information 4. 4. Company’s business. These statements include contained herein. It should not be regarded by projections of economic growth and energy recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own demand and supply, as well as information about judgment. Any opinions expressed in this material 5. 5. competitive position, the regulatory environment, are subject to change without notice and ENGIE potential opportunities for growth and other matters. Tractebel Energia is not under obligation to update Several factors may adversely affect the estimates or keep current the information contained herein. and assumptions on which these statements are 6. 6. based, many of which are beyond our control. 2
1. 1. 2. 2. Inside ENGIE Tractebel Energia 3. 3. Part 1: Prospects for the 4. 4. Energy Market June 2, 2016 5. 5. Marcos Keller Amboni 6. 6. 3
GDP and electricity correlation (1) 9% 7.9% 7% 6.0% 7.6% 5.0% 5% 3.9% 4.1% 3.9% 3.8% 3.7% 1. 1. 4.5% 4.8% Change (%) 4.0% 3% 3.3% 2.6% 0.8% 2. 2. 3.1% 2.7% 1.8% 1% 3. 3. 0.1% -0.2% -1% 4. 4. -1.8% -3% 5. 5. -3.8% -5% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 6. 6. Gross Domestic Product (YoY) Demanda de Energia Elétrica (YoY) Energy demand (YoY) Produto Interno Bruto (YoY) Source: Banco Central do Brasil/ONS 4
GDP and electricity correlation (2) CHANGE (%) 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. Other GDP Residential Industrial Commercial 6. 6. Source: Banco Central do Brasil/EPE 5
Low residential and commercial growth in 2015 and 2016 7.5% 7.3% 7.0% 6.5% 6.4% 6.7% 6.2% 6.0% 5.9% 5.9% 5.9% 5.7% 5.6% 5.1% 4.4% 4.8% 4.8% 5.1% 4.4% 3.8% 1. 1. 0.6% 2. 2. -0.6% 3. 3. Residential Commercial -3.7% 4. 4. -4.4% 5. 5. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20161Q Source: EPE 6. 6. 2016 is referred to the 1 st quarter 6
GDP: historical x projection 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. Source: Banco Central do Brasil 7
Projection: demand 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. Source: ONS/ENGIE Tractebel Energia * ONS revised the calculation methodology of the actual demand from 2014 and 2015 8
1. 1. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. Commercial Capacity - MWa * PMO of January from de current year Generation and transmission recurring delays 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 0 jan/14 Jan/14 fev/14 Feb/14 mar/14 Mar/14 abr/14 Apr/14 mai/14 May/14 Jun/14 jun/14 Jul/14 jul/14 ago/14 Aug/14 Sep/14 set/14 out/14 Oct/14 nov/14 Nov/14 dez/14 Dec/14 jan/15 Jan/15 fev/15 Feb/15 mar/15 Mar/15 abr/15 Apr/15 mai/15 May/15 jun/15 Jun/15 jul/15 Jul/15 ago/15 Aug/15 set/15 Sep/15 out/15 Oct/15 nov/15 Nov/15 dez/15 Dec/15 jan/16 Jan/16 fev/16 Feb/16 mar/16 Mar/16 Previsto PMO abril Realizado Previsto PMO* Estimated PMO* April estimated PMO* Actual abr/16 Apr/16 Source: PSR - Energy Report mai/16 May/16 jun/16 Jun/16 jul/16 Jul/16 ago/16 Aug/16 set/16 Sep/16 out/16 Oct/16 nov/16 Nov/16 9 dez/16 Dec/16
Current situation (1) System Energy Balance 15.9 15.1 14.7 Does not consider 13.6 future auctions 12.3 12.2 Considers work 1. 1. 18% 18% delays (TBLE 17% 17% 16% 9.5 propositions) 2. 2. GWa 14% Considers Reserve 11% 6.6 3. 3. Energy 8% 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Source: PSR - Energy Report 10
Current situation (2) System Energy Balance 11.2 10.5 10.4 Does not consider 9.6 future auctions 8.6 14% 1. 1. 14% 13% Considers work 13% delays (TBLE 2. 2. propositions) GWa 11% 6.1 3. 3. Does not consider 7% Reserve Energy 3.4 4. 4. 4% 5. 5. 0.6 1% 6. 6. 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 11
1. 1. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. PLD R$/MWh 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 0 jan/09 Jan/09 jun/09 Jun/09 Mensal nov/09 Nov/09 Monthly abr/10 Apr/10 set/10 Sep/1 0 fev/11 Feb/11 MM12meses 12months Maverage jul/11 Jul/11 Southeast Spot Price dez/11 Dec/11 mai/12 May/12 out/12 Oct/12 mar/13 Mar/13 MM36meses 36months Maverage ago/13 Aug/13 jan/14 Jan/14 jun/14 Jun/14 nov/14 Nov/1 4 abr/15 Apr/15 MM60meses 60months Maverage Source: CCEE Sep/15 set/15 Feb/16 fev/16 12
Relevant factors that influence energy pricing Hydrology (wet or dry year) Economy recovery Distributed energy growth 1. 1. 2. 2. Delays in the schedules of 3. 3. generation and transmission projects Energy pricing models calibration 4. 4. composition (for example: risk level) 5. 5. 6. 6. 13
PLD and volatility PLD is intrinsically a business of very high volatility. PLD volatility x iBovespa 900 450% 800 400% SE Market PLD [R$/MWh] 700 350% Ibovespa [points/100] Annual Volatility 1. 1. 600 300% 500 250% 2. 2. 400 200% 300 150% 3. 3. 200 100% 100 50% 4. 4. 0 0% 01/01/2008 01/01/2009 01/01/2010 01/01/2011 01/01/2012 01/01/2013 01/01/2014 01/01/2015 5. 5. Weekly Average SE PLD PLD Médio Semanal SE Ibovespa Médio Semanal (/100) Weekly Average Ibovespa (/100) Volatilidade Anual PLD SE Volatilidade Anual iBovespa SE Market PLD Annual Volatility Ibovespa Annual Volatility 6. 6. Volatility: Source: Bovespa/CCEE 14
Hydrological uncertainty in the energy pricing Supply 2020 (storage sensibility 25% and 35% in the SE) • 25% Storage 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 35% Storage 5. 5. 6. 6. Inflow Energy Internal Studies 15
CCEAR new energy: auction results AVERAGE 36,183 MWa 191.1 MÉDIA HYDRO 12,075 MWa 147.0 HIDROELÉTRICA 6,490 MWa WIND EÓLICA 166.1 1. 1. 698 MWa SHP PCH 199.7 2. 2. 2,302 BIOMASS 222.6 BIOMASSA 3. 3. MWa THERMAL 13,938 MWa 230.2 TERMELÉTRICA 4. 4. SOLAR 679 MWa 296.1 SOLAR 5. 5. 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 6. 6. R$/MWh Reference: Apr/16 Does not include Botox plants 16
Average tariff of DISCOs ACR Tariff Comparison Sample: 450 - CPFL Paulista +15% +37 397 - AMPLA +17% % - CEMIG 400 - CEMAT -20% +28% +14% 346 - ENERSUL 71 350 - AES SUL +131% - COELBA 296 62 290 - Bragantina 300 +11 -59% 1. 1. 82 - RGE 27 +127 % 29 -8% - COPEL -12% 232 % R$/MWh 250 73 - Eletropaulo -17% 80 12 -12% - ESCELSA 2. 2. +16% 110 - CELG 200 - CELESC +11% 91 - ELEKTRO 3. 3. 150 - EBE +46% -14% - Piratininga 244 - CEEE 210 100 4. 4. 189 - Energisa-MG 151 - Energisa-PB 129 50 - COELCE 5. 5. - CELPE - CEAL 0 - Cepisa 2012 RTE 2013 2014 RTE 2015 2015 6. 6. - Light TE TUSD Fio TUSD Encargos TF Energy Tariff TUSD Wire TUSD Charges X Wire Tariff Source: Aneel 17
DISCOs tariff will remain high TE Média Average Maior TE Higher Menor TE Lower Energy 350 Energy Tariff Energy Tariff Tariff 313.97 305.68 305.72 303.45 286.78 300 280.57 260.92 1. 1. 256.32 254.15 249.61 250 236.55 236.34 R$/MWh 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 197.11 4. 4. 182.84 183.47 181.41 173.61 172.93 150 5. 5. Data-base: Apr/16 6. 6. 100 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Internal Studies 18
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