John Gaynor John Gaynor NOAA NOAA Office of Weather and Air Quality Office of Weather and Air Quality for for Naomi Surgi Naomi Surgi Hurricane Modeling Program Leader Hurricane Modeling Program Leader NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Prediction NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Prediction WHERE AMERICA’S CLIMATE AND WEATHER SERVICES BEGIN WHERE AMERICA’S CLIMATE AND WEATHER SERVICES BEGIN
OVERVIEW OVERVIEW • OPERATIONAL HURRICANE FORECAST ISSUES • OPERATIONAL HURRICANE FORECAST ISSUES • HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE ON IMPROVING HURRICANE TRACK • HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE ON IMPROVING HURRICANE TRACK FORECASTS FORECASTS • SCIENCE AND MODELING CHALLENGES FOR INTENSITY/STRUCTURE, • SCIENCE AND MODELING CHALLENGES FOR INTENSITY/STRUCTURE, RAINFALL RAINFALL • DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW OPERTIONAL MODELING SYSTEM • DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW OPERTIONAL MODELING SYSTEM • SOME PRELIMINARY RESULTS • SOME PRELIMINARY RESULTS • FUTURE CHALLENGES • FUTURE CHALLENGES
OPERATIONAL FORECAST ISSUES: OPERATIONAL FORECAST ISSUES: • CONTINUED ADVANCEMENT OF TRACK FORECASTS • CONTINUED ADVANCEMENT OF TRACK FORECASTS • IMPROVED INTENSITY PREDICTION • IMPROVED INTENSITY PREDICTION • IMPROVED PREDICTION OF SURFACE WIND • IMPROVED PREDICTION OF SURFACE WIND DISTRIBUTION DISTRIBUTION • IMPROVED RAINFALL FORECASTS • IMPROVED RAINFALL FORECASTS • WAVES, STORM SURGE, HURRICANE GENESIS • WAVES, STORM SURGE, HURRICANE GENESIS
TPC Atlantic 72 hr Track Forecast Errors With the exception of “stalling and looping storms”, hurricane track prediction has shown remarkable progress over the past 7 0 0 three decades. This is due to advancement of observations 7 0 0 (both satellite and aircraft), advancement of 6 0 0 tical miles) Major Upgrades in Glo bal a nd numerical modeling systems, investment in high speed super 6 0 0 tical miles) Major Upgrades in Glo bal a nd computing and technology infusion. Hurr icane Num erical m odels Hurr icane Num erical m odels 5 0 0 5 0 0 4 0 0 4 0 0 Error (nau Error (nau 3 0 0 1 9 9 7 -2 0 0 4 tre ndline 3 0 0 1 9 9 7 -2 0 0 4 tre ndline 2 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 9 7 0 -1 9 8 6 tre ndline 1 9 8 7 -1 9 9 6 tre ndline 1 9 7 0 -1 9 8 6 tre ndline 1 9 8 7 -1 9 9 6 tre ndline 0 0 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Year Year
How NOAA Improved Track Forecasts Three components of modeling system: • HIGH QUALITY OBSERVATIONS (large scale environment surrounding hurricane, e.g. satellite, aircraft) • MADE BETTER USE OF OBSERVATIONS IN HURRICANE MODELS (advances in data assimilation, e.g. for satellites- direct assimilation of radiances) • IMPROVED HURRICANE MODELS (improved representation of physical processes, increased resolution, improved initial specification of vortex)
NOAA’s Hurricane Aircraft NOAA’s G-IV (high altitude jet) flies in storm environment releases dropsondes to obtain measurements of wind, temperature and moisture - TRACK upgrade w/ doppler radar to obtain core observations - INTENSITY/STRUCTURE NOAA’s P-3’s (turbo- props) augments G-IV observations in environment hurricane core observations ****AFRES (Bilxoxi, MS) provides mainstay of recon for NHC
NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT FLIGHT LEVEL: ~45K FLIGHT LEVEL: ~45K RANGE: 4200nm RANGE: 4200nm SPEED: 442 KTS. SPEED: 442 KTS. ~30 drops per mission ~30 drops per mission
Surveillance GIV Aircraft Synoptic Pattern
Hurricane Isabel Synoptic Surveillance Sept 13 to Sept 17, 2003 Red tracks: AFRES WC-130 Blue tracks: NOAA G-IV 00Z Green tracks: NOAA G-IV 12Z
We are now at the juncture of We are now at the juncture of improving intensity forecasts, improving intensity forecasts, where we were a decade ago in where we were a decade ago in advancing hurricane track advancing hurricane track forecasts…… …….. .. forecasts But let’ ’s put the intensity s put the intensity But let problem into the proper problem into the proper forecast context…… …… forecast context
TS Nicholas TS Nicholas HURRICANE KATE 13- -23 October 2003 23 October 2003 13 25 SEPT – 7 OCTOBER 2003 HURRICANE JEANNE 13-28 SEPTEMBER 2004
Tropical Storm Franklin Tropical Storm Franklin 21 - 29 July 2005 21 - 29 July 2005 70 mph 997 mb 70 mph 997 mb 45 mph 1005 mb 45 mph 1005 mb Hurricane Ophelia Hurricane Ophelia 6 - 17 September 2005 6 - 17 September 2005
AFTER QUICKLY STRENGTHENING TO A STRONG CAT. 4 HURRICANE, LILI WEAKENED EVEN MORE RAPIDLY THAN IT HAD INTENSIFIED LILI NEAR ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY LILI MAKING LANDFALL AS A CAT. OF 145 MPH 1 HURRICANE
Charley/Frances Core Sizes Charley/Frances Core Sizes FRANCIS: 115nm Charley: 35nm diameter FRANCIS: 115nm Charley: 35nm diameter IVAN: 190NM IVAN: 190NM Dennis: 50nm Dennis: 50nm
Hurricane- -Wave Wave- -Ocean Ocean- -Surge Surge- -Inundation Coupled Inundation Coupled Hurricane Models Models NCEP/ Environmental Modeling Center NOS land and coastal waters Atmosphere- Ocean-Wave-Land HWRF SYSTEM NMM hurricane atmosphere NOAH LSM runoff High resolution surge Coastal, Bay & inundation fluxes Estuarine Atmosphere/oceanic hydrodynamic Boundary Layer radiative model fluxes winds other fluxes elevations air temp. SST currents currents HYCOM 3D salinities wave temperatures spectra 3D ocean circulation WAVEWATCH III model Spectral wave model wave fluxes
SST Before Hurricane Dennis SST Before Hurricane Dennis July 8, 2005 0200 UTC
Hurricane Dennis’ Cool Wake Hurricane Dennis’ Cool Wake July 11, 2005 1400 UTC
Hurricane Katrina HWRF
HYCOM T&E Katrina HYCOM T&E Katrina
The Future Deep ocean model resolution dictated by GFS model Higher coastal model resolution dictated by model economy Highest model resolution in areas of special interest Hurricane nests moving with storm(s) like GFDL and HWRF
THANK YOU THANK YOU FOR YOUR FOR YOUR ATTENTION… … ATTENTION
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