João Manso Neto EDP Renováveis
#4 worldwide wind player 77.5% EDP Group company focused EDP SHAREHOLDING on wind and solar investments WIND Leader in the most competitive 4,412 MW ONSHORE renewable technology 5,119 MW 12 Worldwide portfolio COUNTRIES Young assets with 6.5 long residual life YEARS AVG. LIFE 204 MW Quality asset base generating 93% predictable revenues CONTRACTED in 2017 2
1. Selective growth 2. Operational excellence 3. Self-funded business 2014-2015 on target 2014 to 9M16 Capacity Additions Load Factor (MW) (2015; MW) Previous Target: € 0.7 bn 29% RoE Asset Rotation BP 2014-17 below avg. wind year +1.1 GW NA PT Availability 2014-15 (2015; %) Proceeds secured € 1.5 bn 97.6% from Asset Rotation Core Opex 1 /MW (2013-15; %) Exceeding target of 0.5 GW per year EDPR’s attractive projects led to higher -2% 100% with PPA/FiT than expected valuations and proceeds 3 Notes: (1) Calculated as Supplies & Services and Personnel Costs per average MW
V alue accretive investments over the last 2 years… …supported strong growth Adj. EBITDA growth 1 Target CAGR 13-17 2 +20% MW Growth in +9% Robust Contributing to Asset ROIC YoY EBITDA growth 2014-15 +10% yoy 9.0% to 9.5% +13% € 1.07bn € 0.9bn avg. MW growth 1st year full operations (vs. 10% in avg. MW) 2014 2015 Adj. Net Income +13% Other EBITDA Other drivers in Other drivers in Other drivers in Forex +7% Efficiency +2% Load Factor -2% drivers in 2015 2015 2015 2015 € 95m € 108m +11% 4 Notes: (1) EBITDA adjusted by non-recurrent events; (2) CAGR as communicated in EDP Group Investor Day on May 2014
Lower Core Opex on the back of superior efficiency and optimization Unique drivers for Opex efficiency Core Opex/MW 2 ( € k) Operating costs breakdown 1 M3 3 & Distinctive O&M strategy (%; € m) (Supplies & Services and Personnel Costs) Self-perform that keeps in-house high -2% strategy valued-added activities Levies 24% 24% CAGR ex-fx & Other 43.9 Forex Economies Growth focused in countries of scale where EDPR is already present 76% 76% Core 41.9 Opex G&A cost Strict control over general 2013 2015 2013 2015 control and administrative expenses 5 Notes: (1) Excludes write-offs; (2) Calculated as Supplies & Services and Personnel Costs per average MW; (3) M3 - Modular Maintenance Model
Retained Cash Flow 1 : strong cash generation capabilities A self-funding and value accretive model ( € billion) 2014-2015 Asset Rotation 2014 to 9M16 Avg. Selling IRR € 2.0 bn c.6.5% € 0.6bn in 2015 (cost of equity) RoE last 2 years: decreasing 200bps € 1.2 bn NA Reinvesting IRR 1.3 GW double digit PT equity € 1.5bn (equity) last 2 years: stable 7 deals SP EV per MW € 1.5m/MW (avg.) EBITDA Associates Taxes Int. & TEI Minorities RCF & non-cash costs The additional € 550m secured in 2016 will leverage EDPR growth in a competitive and attractive sector through 2020 6 Notes: (1) RCF = EBITDA + Associates – Taxes – Non Cash Items – Debt and TEI costs – Minorities capital distributions
Wind already competes with all sources of energy… …and Solar PV is structurally set to increase its attractiveness Levelised Cost of Energy 1 (LCoE) Indexed LCoE 2 ( € /MWh) ( € /MWh, 2016) (10%) (22%) Wind Onshore 90 -168 Long-lasting technology with 95-117 61-106 decreasing LCoE 92-100 69-98 76-86 50-70 Today 2020 2030 (17%) (37%) Solar PV CCGT Coal Nuclear Hydro Wind Solar PV Wind Set to be a highly onshore offshore competitive technology Wind onshore is today amongst the cheapest and most competitive technologies Today 2020 2030 7 Notes: (1) EDPR Analysis for European Market, Load factors: Wind Onshore @ 27%-36% ; Solar PV-one axis tracking @ 23%-27%; Wind Offshore @ 45%-50%; (2) Analysis for an average LCoE
2016-2020: Renewables Worldwide Additions 1 Solid growth drivers in addition to its competitiveness (GW) Wind Environmental concerns 128 Onshore • New global agreement under COP21 Solar PV • CO 2 reduction targets in EU, US and China 66 Utility • Replacement of old/retiring capacity (namely Coal) Solar PV 62 Economy electrification C&I Solar PV • OECD countries: (+) Transports’ electrification; ( -) Energy efficiency 27 Residential • Emerging markets: (+) Economic growth and infrastructure need +335 GW Wind 19 Renewables 2 Offshore Energy independence • Increasing energy imports in most of the developed countries • EU imports more than 50% of its demand, while US only 15% Regions with EDPR presence account for • Recent events have stressed the need to reduce dependency c.70% of Wind and Solar PV (utility) additions 8 Notes: (1) Source: IHS (2015) does not consider impact from PTCs extension in the US; excludes China; (2) Includes 32 GW from Biomass, Geothermal, Small hydro and Ocean, not included in the graph
Wind Onshore & Solar PV (utility scale) Wind and Solar PV (utility scale) to sum 70% of additions thru 2030 Regulatory support certainty (PTCs/ITCs) 152 GW 70 GW Technological progress Other 2% 7% Coal retirement Solar PV 26% (non-utility) 29% RPS demand Solar PV 37% 27% (utility) c.7 GW expected annual Wind capacity additions until 2023 Wind 37% 35% onshore already competitive in Western Solar PV region and some Central states Current Fiscal Policy Long-term Policy 2016-2023 2024-2030 Solar to benefit from longer ITC extension (30% ITC until 2019; decreasing to 10% until 2030 ) Increasing demand from non-utility companies, already representing 50% of PPAs signed in 2015 Notes: Source: IHS Energy North America Renewable Energy Power Market Forecast 2016-2030 9
Europe short term opportunities to… …escalate medium term, supported by: EU 2030 targets 2016-2020: Wind and Solar additions in Europe • 40% cut in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 levels • ≥ 27% share of renewable energy consumption Expected additions in EDPR geographies 60% Wind Onshore Demand recovery and a common vision in Europe +23 GW • New governance based on national plans and EU coordination 30% Wind Offshore • Competitive and sustainable energy (to replace retiring plants) • Strengthen interconnection and improve energy security 10% Solar PV (utility) Regulation in Europe for renewables is evolving into ex-ante competition systems with long-term contracts Short-term specific growth opportunities (including: Belgium, France, Italy, Poland, Portugal, Spain, UK) 10 Notes: Source: IHS (2015)
EDPR’s strategy… …for growth in selective countries with strong fundamentals BRAZIL MEXICO Strong renewable electricity demand +13% +10% Wind the main Mainly from CAGR 15-20 growth driver CAGR 15-20 wind onshore Good natural resources (load factor) c.50% 34%-45% Top-notch Competitive Load factor wind resource Load factor renewable resources Long-term contracts awarded Inflation linked Market thru competitive processes Auctions Auction/PPAs with local funding recently re-designed 11 Notes: Source: IHS (2015) and BNEF
1. Selective growth 2. Operational excellence 3. Self-funding business 2016-2020 2016-2020 2016-2020 c.700 >97.5% € 4.8bn Prioritize quality investments Technical expertise to Investing in visible growth in our core markets maximize production opportunities MW/year availability investments High visibility on projects c.95% till 2018 33% € 3.9bn Competitive projects leading Profitable assets generating already secured w/ LT >60% till 2020 to a superior load factor robust Retained Cash Flow in 2020 RCF contracts up to € 1.1bn Solar & -1% Unique O&M strategy to keep Asset Rotation strategy to Technological mix initiatives € 550m signed keep enhancing value growth Offshore lowering Core Opex/MW CAGR 2015-20 c. € 600m new 12
Increasing 2014- 17 Business Plan… …into a new Business Plan with stronger capacity additions and technological mix Capacity Additions Capacity Additions Drivers (MW; %) (MW; %) Solar PV Emerging 10% Wind Onshore : fully Markets 20% competitive technology Brazil 10% 20% 500 MW/year 15% 700 MW/year United North Europe Europe 2014-2017 2016-2020 America 1 States 65% Solar PV : Increasing its 60% competitiveness Projects with long-term Total of 2 GW capacity additions Total of 3.5 GW capacity additions visibility & low risk profile 13 Notes: (1) North America includes: US, Canada and Mexico
EDPR strategy under “ safe-harbour conditions” to maximizing projects returns Production Tax Credits scheme phase-down Project Name MW State CoD Capacity additions (GW) secured Start of construction… …end of construction Hidalgo 250 Texas 2016 under negotiation/identified 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Timber Road III 100 Ohio 2016 60% Secured Jericho 78 New York 2016 Full PTC ($23/MWh 1 ) Arkwright 79 New York 2017 Meadow Lake V 100 Indiana 2017 1.8 GW 80% PTC 1 2016-2020 Quilt Block 98 Wisconsin 2017 60% PTC 1 (until 2022) Red Bed 99 Oklahoma 2017 40% PTC 1 Turtle Creek 200 Iowa 2018 (until 2023) Meadow Lake VI 75 Indiana 2018 100% of PTCs value if installed until 2020 Option to grow 3.1 GW 1.1 GW already secured under safe-harbor conditions (5% capex invested in 2016) with safe harbor >55% secured with non-utilities 14 Notes: (1) PTC value in 2015 of $23/MWh;
Recommend
More recommend
