Ipsos MORI Local Chief Executive, Ipsos MORI Ben Page Its making - PDF document

PEOPLE, PERCEPTIONS AND PLACE Ipsos MORI Local Chief Executive, Ipsos MORI Ben Page

It’s making the new s…

And w e are of course, all Localists now ….

“[We propose]… giving local communities the Who said this? power to drive real improvements in everything from the way their neighbourhoods are policed to the way that community assets are used. I believe it will help to build the vibrant local democracies on which our society and our public services depend.…” “Newly empowered councils... through a new 'general power of competence' will be able to do literally whatever they like as long as it's legal - creating solutions to local problems without getting permission from the centre.” “We need to take control away from central government, where bureaucrats and ministers are in charge, and give it to local government, people and communities”.

The Place Survey show s some real success in local areas

We’re happier w ith w here w e live Q Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with your local area as a place to live? Average District Mets & Unitaries LB Inner London Outer London 85% 82% 80% 80% 80% 77% Satisfaction 77% 75% 75% 75% 73% 71% 70% 70% 69% 66% 65% 2006 2008 Year surveyed Source: Ipsos MORI Base: Place Survey 2008/09 (352 local authorities), BVPI 2006 and 2003 (387 local authorities)

…ASB is still going dow n Q Thinking about this local area, how much of a problem do you think each of the following are… 7 strand ASB index Average District Mets & Unitaries LB Inner London Outer London 45% 45% 43% 42% 41% 36% 38% 35% Problem 30% 29% 28% 26% 26% 27% 25% 27% 23% 21% 23% 19% 20% 15% Year surveyed 2003 2008 2006 Source: Ipsos MORI Base: Place Survey 2008/09 (352 local authorities), BVPI 2006 and 2003 (387 local authorities)

Particularly drugs… Q Thinking about this local area, how much of a problem do you think each of the following are… People using or dealing drugs? Average District Mets & Unitaries LB Inner London Outer London 65% 63% 60% 60% 61% 61% 60% 55% 50% Problem 45% 45% 42% 44% 46% 43% 38% 35% 36% 35% 33% 31% 29% 25% Year surveyed 2003 2008 2006 Source: Ipsos MORI Base: Place Survey 2008/09 (352 local authorities), BVPI 2006 and 2003 (387 local authorities)

…and the terror of teenagers declining Q Thinking about this local area, how much of a problem do you think each of the following are… Teenagers hanging around the streets? Average District Mets & Unitaries LB Inner London Outer London 65% 63% 60% 60% 61% 61% 59% 56% 56% 56% 57% 55% 57% 55% Problem 49% 50% 48% 48% 45% 45% 40% 35% Year surveyed 2003 2006 2008 Source: Ipsos MORI Base: Place Survey 2008/09 (352 local authorities), BVPI 2006 and 2003 (387 local authorities)

BUT local authorities getting none of the credit…

Satisfaction w ith Council is dow n Q How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way your local council runs things? Average District Mets & Unitaries LB Inner London Outer London 60% 57% 56% 56% 55% 55% 55% 54% 55% 52% 53% Satisfaction 52% 51% 50% 51% 49% 50% 46% 46% 45% 45% 42% 40% 35% Year surveyed 2003 2008 2006 Base: Place Survey 2008/09 (352 local authorities), BVPI 2006 and 2003 (387 local authorities) BVPI 2003 Inner London mean excludes Islington, Newham and Tower Hamlets, BVPI 2003 Outer London mean Source: Ipsos MORI excludes Croydon

…because people don’t know w hat’s happening? Q Overall, how well informed do you feel you are kept about local public services? % Informed 38% All council average 41% Districts 37% Mets & Unitaries 37% London boroughs 40% Inner London Outer London 36% Base: Place Survey 2008/09 (131 local authorities: 59 district councils, 33 London boroughs, 25 Source: Ipsos MORI Metropolitan districts and 14 unitary authorities)

For example, rubbish or litter lying around is less of a problem… Q Thinking about this local area, how much of a problem do you think each of the following are… rubbish or litter lying around? Average District Mets & Unitaries LB Inner London Outer London 65% 60% 61% 59% 56% 55% 52% 53% 54% Problem 50% 50% 47% 48% 45% 44% 45% 45% 44% 41% 42% 40% 39% 39% 35% 32% 30% Year surveyed 2003 2008 2006 Source: Ipsos MORI Base: Place Survey 2008/09 (131 local authorities), BVPI 2006 and 2003 (387 local authorities)

…BUT satisfaction w ith the council on this has fallen Q How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with each of the following services provided or supported by your local authority?… keeping public land clear of litter and refuse Average District Mets & Unitaries LB Inner London Outer London 80% 69% 70% 67% Satisfaction 65% 63% 63% 63% 60% 60% 59% 58% 56% 57% 55% 54% 52% 50% 51% 40% Year surveyed 2003 2008 2006 *2006 question wording: How satisfied or dissatisfied are you that the local authority has kept this land clear of litter and refuse. Source: Ipsos MORI Base: Place Survey 2008/09 (352 local authorities), BVPI 2006 and 2003 (387 local authorities)

Place Survey covers more than just councils…

Satisfaction w ith local police forces similar to that of councils Q Please indicate how satisfied or dissatisfied you are with each of the following public services in your local area?…Your local police force % Satisfied 47% Average In Districts 45% 49% In Mets & Unitaries 49% In London boroughs 50% Inner London Outer London 50% Base: Place Survey 2008/09 (121 local authorities: 49 district councils, 33 London boroughs, 25 Source: Ipsos MORI Metropolitan districts and 14 unitary authorities)

Local agencies doing badly on the “new single confidence” measure Q And how much would you agree or disagree that the police and other local public services are successfully dealing with these issues [anti-social behaviour and crime] in your local area? % Agree 26% Average 27% In Districts 26% In Mets & Unitaries 29% In London boroughs 31% Inner London 29% Outer London Base: Place Survey 2008/09 (352 local authorities: 201 district councils, 33 London boroughs, 36 Source: Ipsos MORI Metropolitan districts and 55 unitary authorities)

GPs better rated, but London stands out Q Please indicate how satisfied or dissatisfied you are with each of the following public services in your local area?…Your GP % Satisfied 77% Average In Districts 80% 75% In Mets & Unitaries 69% In London boroughs 67% Inner London Outer London 70% Base: Place Survey 2008/09 (121 local authorities: 49 district councils, 33 London boroughs, 25 Source: Ipsos MORI Metropolitan districts and 14 unitary authorities)

… even dentists better rated than councils Q Please indicate how satisfied or dissatisfied you are with each of the following public services in your local area?…Your local dentist % Satisfied 54% Average 56% In Districts 53% In Mets & Unitaries 47% In London boroughs 40% Inner London 51% Outer London Base: Place Survey 2008/09 (121 local authorities: 49 district councils, 33 London boroughs, 25 Source: Ipsos MORI Metropolitan districts and 14 unitary authorities)

Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics? Tw o key points: - understand w hat is driving these perceptions – both w hat is in your control and w hat is not - look more carefully at local neighbourhoods w ithin authorities

The Perils of Perception – much is beyond your control…. For example overall quality of life can nearly all be explained by just five background factors…

Very strong relationship w ith deprivation… 100% Ribble Valley South Hams 95% Westminster R 2 = 54% Satisfaction with local area 90% Hart Barrow in 85% Kingston Furness upon Hull 80% 75% Hackney Rushmoor 70% Liverpool 65% Thurrock Slough 60% Barking and Dagenham Newham 55% 50% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 IMD Source: Ipsos MORI Base: All valid responses, 323 local authorities, Place Survey 2008/09

…but even very simple measures like proportion of dependent children 100% Richmond R 2 = 49% City of upon R 95% Thames London 90% Milton Keynes 85% Satisfaction 80% South Holland 75% Hackney Boston 70% Ashfield 65% Sandwell 60% Newham Barking and 55% Dagenham 50% 40% 50% 60% 70% No dependent children Source: Ipsos MORI Base: All valid responses, 323 local authorities, Place Survey 2008/09

In fact w e can explain 82% of variation in quality of life know ing only… Degree level or higher qualifications Households living in homes with 0.5 people or fewer per room IMD Proportion under 21 Geographic region – NE happy, London unhappy

We can accurately predict quality of life know ing only these factors 100% R 2 = 77% South Hams 95% Ribble Valley R South 90% Cambs Kingston Actual satisfaction 85% upon Hull 80% 75% Forest Knowsley Heath 70% 65% Thurrock Newham 60% 55% Barking & Dagenham 50% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Predicted satisfaction Source: Ipsos MORI Base: All valid responses, 323 local authorities, Place Survey 2008/09

The Ipsos MORI Area Challenge Index: Who’s most universally challenged?