A Brand New Opportunity Ravenscroft Group Independent + Owned by staff & directors + High profile backers Investment Team Experienced + Invested + Client focused Investment Philosophy Bottom up + Long term + Global + High quality + Thematic + Valuation-driven Investment Solution: IFSL Ravenscroft Huntress Balanced Fund Simple + Liquid + Transparent Vartan Ravenscroft: The Singing Men's Chambers, 19 Minster Precincts, Peterborough PE1 1XX T:+44 (0)1733 315155 Vartan Ravenscroft: 10 Brick Street, Mayfair, London W1J 7HQ, T: +44(0) 20 345 71425 1
Learning Objectives Forecasting the Future Why is predicting the model of choice? Global Trends Increasing wealth, Demography and Innovation BREXIT proof your portfolio Global vs Local Investment Discipline What , Why and Price Understandable Investments that Clients ‘get’! Vartan Ravenscroft: The Singing Men's Chambers, 19 Minster Precincts, Peterborough PE1 1XX T:+44 (0)1733 315155 Vartan Ravenscroft: 10 Brick Street, Mayfair, London W1J 7HQ, T: +44(0) 20 345 71425 2
We live in a complicated world So we focus on the parts that matter to you 3
The folly of forecasting / the perils of prediction / forecasting fools 1859 1876 1880 1902 “ Everyone acquainted with the subject will “Drill for oil? You mean drill into the ground to “This telephone has too many shortcomings to be “Flight by machines heavier than air is recognise it as a conspicuous failure” try to find oil? You’re crazy!” seriously considered as a means of communication” unpractical and insignificant, if not utterly impossible” Western Union internal memo Henry Morton, president of the Stevens Institute of Technology, on Edison’s light Associates of Edwin L. Drake refusing his Simon Newcomb, Canadian-American suggestion to drill for oil in 1859. bulb astronomer and mathematician, 18 months before the Wright Brothers’ flight at Kittyhawk (Later that year, Drake succeeded in drilling the first oil well) 4
The folly of forecasting / the perils of prediction / forecasting fools 1977 1903 1946 1995 “There is no reason for any individual to have “The horse is here to stay, but the automobile is “Television won’t last because people will soon “The truth is no online database will replace a computer in his home” only a novelty, a fad” your daily newspaper” get tired of staring at a plywood box every night?” Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder The president of the Michigan Savings Bank, Darryl Zanuck, movie producer, Clifford Stoll, Newsweek article entitled 20 th Century Fox advising Henry Ford’s lawyer not to invest in of Digital Equipment Corporation The Internet? Bah! the Ford Motor Company 5
Even highly intelligent people can get it wrong… Irving Fisher Abby Joseph Cohen Richard Branson One of America's greatest ever In December 2007, Goldman Sachs chief investment In 2010, billionaire entrepreneur issued a economists, said in October 1929 that he strategist suggested the S&P 500 would hit 1,675 by warning that "the next five years will see us the end of 2008, a climb of 14% — it actually ended face another crunch – the oil crunch," believed equities had reached a "permanently high plateau." Less than two below 900. predicting a severe supply shortage. Five weeks later, stocks plunged and didn't years later, the price of oil is actually lower reach the highs they fell from for 25 years. than it was then 6 Source: Business Week Insider UK
Even highly intelligent people can get it wrong… … and they might even admit it Mark Carney “We might understand that no forecast is perfect, but that is not what [the public] hears - we need to do a better job of explaining what a forecast is and what the different scenarios are for the economy .” Alan Greenspan Former Fed chair warned in his 2007 book "The Age of Turbulence" that the world might need double digit interest rates to control inflation in the near future. Rates have been near zero for the vast majority of the time since. Gertjan Vlieghe “I am never confident of any forecast,” said Gertjan Vlieghe, a member of the interest rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee “…we are probably not going to forecast the next financial crisis, nor are we going to forecast the next recession…” 7 Source: Business Week Insider UK and Daily Telegraph online
And some words of wisdom… Warren Buffet All my life I have been hearing “Things are more unpredictable now” They’re always unpredictable, I can’t predict what’s gonna happen tomorrow… Speaking on CNBC February 2017 8
We can’t predict markets But we can control what we invest in 9
We identify long-term global trends and investment themes that lie within them
Global Trends Global wealth is growing Let’s benefit from those extra pounds 11
Global Trends Changing demographics The world is ageing Let’s make the silver years golden 12
Global Trends The pace of technological change is accelerating Technology is changing every aspect of our lives 13
Investing in line with them is like cycling with the wind behind you xx 14
How these trends link to our investment themes We aim to invest in ‘quality’ assets that will benefit from our long-term investment themes driven by irrefutable global trends: Increasing Wealth - Changing Demographics - Technological Advancement. Ageing global population, Aspiring middle classes, Efficiency improvements, engineering Increased consumption, lifestyle changes, population growth, breakthroughs, digitalisation & connectivity, brand power, consumer loyalty scientific discoveries urbanisation, industrialisation medical breakthroughs 15
Performance MSCI World vs. MSCI Themes* 31/12/2007 to 31/12/2017 Gross Total Return in GBP Data from MSCI & FE Analytics *Composite of 20% MSCI World Consumer Discretionary, 20% MSCI World Consumer Staples, 20% MSCI World Healthcare, 20% MSCI World Industrials, 20% MSCI World Information Technology – rebalanced quarterly. These figures relate to the past and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results 16
And investing globally Reduces your exposure to geographically specific political and economic outcomes The issues that matter rarely respect borders 17
Huntress Funds by Rank and Quartile Data as at 28/02/2018 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year 1.3% 12.2% 21.8% Huntress Global Income 3rd Quartile 2nd Quartile 2nd Quartile 'O' Class 1.8% 9.9% 19.7% IA Mixed Investment 0-35% Shares 31/57 16/46 17/40 5.9% 24.2% 42.3% Huntress Global Balanced 1st Quartile 1st Quartile 1st Quartile Blend of 'O' & 'I' Classes 3.5% 19.7% 36.6% IA Mixed Investment 20-60% Shares 21/151 8/137 13/118 8.1% 31.5% 53.8% Huntress Global Growth 1st Quartile 1st Quartile 1st Quartile Blend of 'O' & 'I' Classes 5.4% 20.4% 40.9% IA Mixed Investment 40-85% Shares 17/155 10/132 12/117 Figures are derived directly from our Offshore funds – our UK Onshore range is a mirror. Offshore funds only available to High Net Worth Clients . Data is the total return, net of fees, sterling performance for All data is in GBP. Fund performance is based on the Huntress the indicated offshore Huntress funds. (Offshore) Fund Range - 'O' class was launched 01.04.16, prior to this IA Sector is a UK Peer Group Index. Please note that the date, data on the Range’s 'I' class is shown. Annual Management funds have not always been managed in line with the IA Charge: 'O' class - 0.75% p.a. 'I' class - 1.5% p.a. (% Total Return, Sector parameters; there may have been periods where the NAV Based, Net of AMC, including ongoing charges, excluding initial equity weighing was higher than the IA Sector maximum. charges) Past performance numbers should not be relied upon as a Data from MSCI & FE Analytic specific guide to future returns. 18
Our Strategies 19
Your Learning Outcomes Forecasting the Future Why is predicting the model of choice? Global Trends Increasing wealth, Demography and Innovation BREXIT proof your portfolio Global vs Local Investment Discipline What , Why and Price Understandable Investments that Clients ‘get’! Vartan Ravenscroft: The Singing Men's Chambers, 19 Minster Precincts, Peterborough PE1 1XX T:+44 (0)1733 315155 Vartan Ravenscroft: 10 Brick Street, Mayfair, London W1J 7HQ, T: +44(0) 20 345 71425 20
SUMMARY: A New Opportunity Ravenscroft Group Independent + Owned by staff & directors + High profile backers Investment Team Experienced + Invested + Client focused Investment Philosophy Bottom up + Long term + Global + High quality + Thematic + Valuation-driven Investment Solution: IFSL Ravenscroft Huntress Balanced Fund Simple + Liquid + Transparent Availability Adviser Platforms and Direct Vartan Ravenscroft: The Singing Men's Chambers, 19 Minster Precincts, Peterborough PE1 1XX T:+44 (0)1733 315155 Vartan Ravenscroft: 10 Brick Street, Mayfair, London W1J 7HQ, T: +44(0) 20 345 71425 21
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