Introducing Electric Vehicles in Southern Africa Brian Hastie - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Introducing Electric Vehicles in Southern Africa Brian Hastie Electrification Project Leader and Dealer Network Director Jaguar Land Rover (South Africa & Sub-Sahara Africa)

The rate of EV sales has rapidly increased globally Exponential growth since inception

EV sales has universal uptake EV has Global take-up

EV Sales by Country Shift from “Compliance cars” to Electric cars that deliver and compete against ICE Mix of mass & premium Brands

EV Product to Market 600 500 90 400 86 300 72 101 200 66 100 96 0 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 No. BEV & PHEV Model Launches Source: HIS Market, McKinsey analysis

The rapid growth of EV’s will continue into the future EV sales could reach 60 million by 2040, 55% of all light-duty vehicles. • Every day, barriers to an EV as a credible daily drive are falling • The young have bought in to an electrified future

South African manufacture supplies Global markets

South African sales are sourced from worlds major OEM’s

Potential EV Growth Most proactive approach • Short term implementation of Vehicle Pricing (incentives) • Adoption of models available globally Potential EV Volume Growth in SA 50000 45000 42961 • Fast growth, but manageable in 40000 35000 terms of Dealer gearing up & 30000 capability 25000 20000 • Steady and viable growth of Public 15000 14400 10000 infrastructure 5000 0 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Most proactive approach Forced reactive growth No Change

South African Reality Battery Brand Model Price Units/Year (kWh) €37k — €80k* Tesla Model 3 50-75 120,000 1 € 37,000* Nissan Leaf E-Plus 60 80,000 2 € 27,000* Renault Zoe (next gen) 50? 60,000 3 Less than ¼ of available € 48,000* BMW i3 42 In SA since 2015 40,000 4 € 40,000* Hyundai Kona EV 64 40,000 models introduced 5 € 85,000 Audi e-tron quattro 95 Expected early 2020 30,000 6 € 40,000* Kia e-Niro 39-64 30,000 7 € 80,000 In SA since April 2019 Jaguar I-PACE 90 25,000 8 Premium only € 34,000* Hyundai Ioniq 39 20,000 9 € 30,000* VW ID Neo 48 20,000 10 € 40,000* Kia Soul EV 39-64 20,000 11 Token volume € 35,000* Mini Electric 42 20,000 12 € 70,000* Mercedes EQC 80 15,000 13 Expected mid/late 2020 € 21,000* VW e-Up! 37 12,000 14 Porsche Taycan 90 $ 90,000 10,000 15 Expected early 2020 € 19,000* Skoda e-Citigo 37 8,000 16 € 30,000* Peugeot 208 60 8,000 17 € 20,000* Seat e-Mii 37 6,000 18 € 30,000* Opel / Vauxhall Corsa 60 5,000 19 € 35,000* DS DS3 Crossback 50 4,000 20 € 35,000* Peugeot 2008 60 2,000 21

South African Reality High Import Cost for EV Duties EV Myths & Capability at & Charging Retailer No Incentives

EV Eco System: South African EV status quo  Lower GHG is the motive & a key benefit Environment   Electric Car Legislative Commercialisation Vehicles Makers  Infrastructure Powerway puts the public charging infrastructure ahead of EV population

EV Eco System • Overnight Home Charging is the primary method, most cost effective • A Public Charging connected grid is a necessity for full EV adoption Electric Key factors: Vehicles • Standardisation of Chargers • One simple payment platform • Independently operated • Commercial viability Infrastructure underpinned by volume Powerway puts the public charging infrastructure ahead of EV population

Powerway Public charging grid – AC22kW & DC60kW Dual Units Motivation: remove the main purchase objection Shopping Centre (per Retailer) Provides “out & about” convenience + Highway Stopovers Make long trips possible Pretoria To Gauteng & Durban Surrounds Polokwane To (West / North Cape Town / East) Garden Route Compatible with all EV’s POWERWAY, in partnership with

EV Eco System • No movement on import  duty situation since 2015 Higher import • EV volume growth / duty rate. uptake is directly linked to the duty & rebate structure No incentives. • Potential rebates: Electric • Carbon Tax breaks Legislative Vehicles No link to • GTS framework production / • Secondary tax streams components / • VAT on Equipment & exports Chargers • Employment for installations & training

EV Eco System • Higher Costs impact Retail  EV’s have Price additional costs • High Retail Price impacts volume (low uptake) Demand is low • Model Range walk Electric Poor business imbalance Commercialisation Vehicles case for Local OEM/Importer • EV’s are more expensive to market than ICE vehicles • Equipment RISK / OPPORTUNITY • Competency Local Vehicle Manufacture Local Component Manufacture

EV Uptake: no change scenario No change • Status quo continues in short to medium term, with some growth of EV inevitable Potential EV Volume Growth in SA 50000 • Existing obstacles and lack of 45000 42961 evolution hold back EV potential 40000 35000 30000 • SA consumer has lack of choice, SA 25000 industry falls behind global 20000 15000 positioning 14400 10000 5000 • Likely to impact relevance of local 0 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 manufacture Most proactive approach Forced reactive growth No Change

EV Uptake: catch-up scenario Forced reactive growth • Status quo continues in short to medium term • Eventually non-EV options run out Potential EV Volume Growth in SA 50000 and EV’s are adopted in a sudden 45000 42961 way 40000 35000 30000 • Chaotic environment created by 25000 unrealistic demands on capability 20000 • Likely lack of standardisation, poor 15000 14400 10000 customer service 5000 0 • Impact on Brands, further holding 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 back EV growth Most proactive approach Forced reactive growth No Change

Short to Medium term uptake • Short term implementation of Vehicle Pricing (incentives) • Adoption of models available globally • Fast growth, but manageable in terms of Dealer gearing up & capability • Steady and viable growth of Public infrastructure Potential EV Volume Growth in SA • Status quo continues in short to medium term 50000 • Eventually non- EV options run out and EV’s are 45000 42961 adopted in a sudden way 40000 • Chaotic environment created by unrealistic demands 35000 on capability 30000 • Likely lack of standardisation, poor customer service 25000 • Impact on Brands, further holding back EV growth 20000 15000 14400 • Status quo continues in short to medium term, with 10000 some growth of EV inevitable 5000 • Existing obstacles and lack of evolution hold back EV 0 potential 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 • SA consumer has lack of choice, SA industry falls behind global positioning Most proactive approach Forced reactive growth No Change • Likely to impact relevance of local manufacture

Case Study: The rise of Diesel Diesel engine share of Premium Segment Volume Analogy to EV introduction - 40% 37% growth of diesel power in the luxury 35% segment in SA: 30% 25% 25% • Initial slow start 20% • Then new technology with 15% enhanced performance launched 10% • Performance and economy drives 5% 1% popularity 0% 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Role Players Environment Electric Legislation Commercialisation Vehicles EV Uptake: no change scenario Infrastructure • APDP2 • National Environmental Management Act • National Transport Master Plan • Department of Energy - Energy Strategic Plan • Dept. of Environmental Affairs - National Climate Change Response Strategy • Department of Science and Technology - 10 Year Innovation Plan • Department of Trade and Industry - Industrial Policy Action Plan (IPAP) • Department of Transport - Green Transport Strategy 2050

Motor Industry Strategy NAAMSA/GOVERNMENT NAAMSA/EV ECO-SYSTEM • Formation of the Electric, Hybrid & • Engagement with institutions Alternative-fuel Vehicle (EHAV) Committee • Commissioned research into the impact of • Alignment, clarification of roles EV’s, EV “eco - system” • Co-operate & deliver + • Other research & insights • NAAMSA “Position Paper” to be drafted • Engagement with all Government institutions at all levels