International Telecommunication Union Shaping the future mobile information society: The case of the Kingdom of Norway Eric Lie ITU Strategy and Policy Unit New Initiatives Workshop on Shaping the Future Mobile Information Society Seoul, Korea 4 - 5 March 2004 1 The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the ITU or its Membership.
International Telecommunication Union Mobile overtakes fixed Fixed vs. mobile (NMT, GSM, GSM Prepaid ) subscriptions 4'500'000 GSM prepaid 4'000'000 GSM subscriptions NMT 3'500'000 PSTN and ISDN 3'000'000 subscriptions 2'500'000 2'000'000 1'500'000 1'000'000 500'000 0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2 Source: NPT
International Telecommunication Union Who uses mobile telephony? Daily mobile and fixed telephony use by gender and by age, 2001 100 90 80 70 Mobile - Men 60 Mobile - Women Fixed - Men 50 Fixed - Women 40 30 20 10 0 9 - 12 13 - 15 16 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 66 67 - 79 Age 3 Source: Telenor R&D
International Telecommunication Union Trends in voice traffic Volume of traffic, millions of minutes, 1998 - 2002 25'000 Mobile to fixed Mobile to mobile Fixed to mobile Fixed to fixed 20'000 15'000 Mil. minutes 10'000 5'000 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 4 Source: NPT
International Telecommunication Union The world in 160 characters 700 600 SMS messages sent per user 500 400 300 Average number of 200 SMS messages 100 sent per user per annum, 0 1999 - 2002 1999 2000 2001 2002 5 Source: NPT
International Telecommunication Union “ Youth ” and SMS Daily SMS use by age and gender, 2001 100 Men 90 Women 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 13 - 15 16 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 66 67 - 79 Age 6 Source: Telenor R&D
International Telecommunication Union Premium services & MMS 7
International Telecommunication Union Why mobile? ! Geography and demographics • Long distances and a harsh landscape • High per capita income ! Competitive market environment • Healthy price competition ! Perceptions and attitudes • Technology and things Scandinavian • Lifestyle ! An early start • Manual services introduced in 1966 • Optimistic forecasting 8
International Telecommunication Union Telepriser.no 9
International Telecommunication Union Mobile and technology Annual growth in subscriptions: Manually operated, NMT and GSM 80% 70% Introduction of GSM 60% Introduction of NMT 450 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1970 1972 1974 1988 1990 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 10 Source: NPT
International Telecommunication Union Optimistic forecasting Operator forecasts for mobile telephones per 1000 inhabitants, Nordic countries and selected European countries, 1986 - 1990 40 35 30 25 N ordic C ountries 20 S elected E uropean 15 C ountries 10 5 0 1985 1990 1986 1987 1988 1989 June 1990 11 Source: CEPT/ELT/ESE documents 1985.
International Telecommunication Union Thank you http://www.itu.int/futuremobile Eric Lie eric.lie@itu.int 12
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