www.ecologic.eu Electric Vehicles and the Electricity Sector - Interactions and Limitations Max Grünig Ecologic Institute
www.ecologic.eu Table of content current and future electricity sector integrating renewables integrating EV charging charging options monitoring options discussion 2 February Brussels, Electric Vehicles Stakeholder Workshop – Max Grünig 2 2011
www.ecologic.eu Lead Question(s) What role play EVs in the energy sector transformation? Do they foster or hinder a more widespread use of renewable power generating capacity? Which are the determinants for a successful integration of EVs into the electricity grid? Which regulatory measures are necessary to achieve this goal? What action can be taken at EU and MS level? Brussels, Electric Vehicles Stakeholder Workshop – Max Grünig 2/2/2011 3
www.ecologic.eu Current and future electricity sector based on the PRIMES reference scenario, IPM energy modelling: EU energy demand rises from 3,300 TWh in 2010 to 4,920 TWh in 2050 peak demand rises from 500 GW in 2008 to 740 GW in 2050 (~+1% p.a.) Western and Northern regions show lower growth (except for Spain, Belgium and Ireland) Eastern countries show higher growth Brussels, Electric Vehicles Stakeholder Workshop – Max Grünig 2/2/2011 4
www.ecologic.eu Generation mix Rise of renwable energy sources: 6,000 Other Renewable Solar 5,000 Offshore Wind 4,000 Onshore Wind Generation (TWh) Biomass 3,000 Other Thermal+PS CCGT 2,000 Coal Hydro 1,000 Nuclear 0 Net energy imports Energy demand -1,000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Brussels, Electric Vehicles Stakeholder Workshop – Max Grünig 2/2/2011 5
www.ecologic.eu Renewables take over renewables generation rises from 19% in 2010 to 32% in 2020 and 50% by 2050 mostly wind power: 5 % of total generation in 2010 to 25% in 2050 other sources less dominant: solar ~ 6% in 2050 significant Biomass and Hydropower other renewables (geothermanl, fuel cell, etc.) ~3% in 2050 but very significant regional differences (East/West and North/ South) Brussels, Electric Vehicles Stakeholder Workshop – Max Grünig 2/2/2011 6
www.ecologic.eu GHG emissions from power generation falling from 1,200 Mio. t in 2010 to 670 Mio. t in 2050 linked to an increase in carbon prices and to a large share of renewables Brussels, Electric Vehicles Stakeholder Workshop – Max Grünig 2/2/2011 7
www.ecologic.eu Basic principles of the electricity system electricity cannot be stored in the grid electricity generation has to match exactly power demand in each moment in time, otherwise voltage imballances occur power sources have different degrees of flexibility time needed to reach operating capacity time needed to reach efficient power generation costs of shut down and restart Brussels, Electric Vehicles Stakeholder Workshop – Max Grünig 2/2/2011 8
www.ecologic.eu Basic principles of the electricity system electricity providers face the task to match the load profile with the least costly selection of power plants dispatching of power plants according to the marginal cost of power generation (usually nuclear and wind) flattening load curves to reduce the need to adapt power supply reduced peak loads leading to lower peak production costs establishing a better coordination better power sources and sinks reduced excess generation capacities preventing negative prices Smart Grid Technologies Brussels, Electric Vehicles Stakeholder Workshop – Max Grünig 2/2/2011 9
www.ecologic.eu Daily load profiles Load curve for a Wednesday and a Sunday in Germany (source WWF) Brussels, Electric Vehicles Stakeholder Workshop – Max Grünig 2/2/2011 10
www.ecologic.eu Increasing shares of renewables wind has low marginal costs, but is highly intermittent over 10,000 GW of additional wind capacity installed in EU 27 (2009) need for back-up generating capacity (mostly gas) wind can be disconnected and re-connected on a very short-term basis but: priority grid access for renewables constraint on dispatching (other constraints can be CHP, such as in DK) impact: over-supply of wind energy at times of high wind and low demand result: negative electricity prices (-120 € /MWh in December 2009 in DK) Brussels, Electric Vehicles Stakeholder Workshop – Max Grünig 2/2/2011 11
www.ecologic.eu The way out… different approaches are feasible: a. transfer of excess electricity b. storage of excess electricity c. demand management / demand control with different opportunities and challenges and different implications for EV integration Brussels, Electric Vehicles Stakeholder Workshop – Max Grünig 2/2/2011 12
www.ecologic.eu Transfer of excess electricity national electricity grids are interconnected through European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E) transmission capacities are designed for small scale balancing transfers, not for large scale transmission of excess capacities bottlenecks are already reached, especially in times of high wind (DK > DE or DE > PL) Brussels, Electric Vehicles Stakeholder Workshop – Max Grünig 2/2/2011 13
www.ecologic.eu Transfer of excess electricity need for significant investment in additional transmission capacity Commissioner Oettinger estimated total investment needs in energy sector to be 1 trillion € by 2020 (07 October 2010) Strategic Energy Sector Information system (SETIS) expects 400 to 450 billion € until 2040 in grid investments (25% transmission, 75% distribution) need for legal framework to support new transmission lines need for political support for new transmission lines at EU and MS level Brussels, Electric Vehicles Stakeholder Workshop – Max Grünig 2/2/2011 14
www.ecologic.eu Transfer of excess electricity upgrading the transmission system: high voltage direct current (HVDC) long distance and undersea cables flexible alternative current transmission systems (FACTS) gas insulated lines (GIL) high temperature superconducting (HTS) cables additional transmission capacity: 50 to 70 GW (300% increase) by 2050 also, 10 to 15% additional back-up generating capacity needed (ECF) Brussels, Electric Vehicles Stakeholder Workshop – Max Grünig 2/2/2011 15
www.ecologic.eu Storage of excess electricity pump storage currently in use low capacities (max 6.7 GW el in DE, one plant ~8.5 GWh) compressed air storage under development very high potential capacity (~3TWh) battery storage, such as EVs Brussels, Electric Vehicles Stakeholder Workshop – Max Grünig 2/2/2011 16
www.ecologic.eu EV as flexible sinks EVs as one-way storage or flexible sinks 1 million EVs ~ 10 GWh or stored electricity initially limited storage potential in GWh (at least until 2020) not permanently available (use requirements, load condition of battery) but significant short term balancing potential in DE, currently 7GW 1 million EVs can absorb up to 3GW regulating energy high potential for grid stabilisation / regulation Brussels, Electric Vehicles Stakeholder Workshop – Max Grünig 2/2/2011 17
www.ecologic.eu Why not Vehicle to Grid (V2G)? faster cycling of EV batteries increased wear and tear of batteries (costs) shorter lifetime very high costs for V2G only very high incentives would overcome this barrier car owners require final control over battery to ensure mobility and accessibility of their EV Brussels, Electric Vehicles Stakeholder Workshop – Max Grünig 2/2/2011 18
www.ecologic.eu Demand Management and Smart Grid Technology integrating renewable and conventional power sources into virtual power plants that stabilise supply updating the distribution grids for two way power flow smart metering for power users dynamic pricing reflecting actual „scarcity“ of electricity communication between power sinks (appliances etc.) and the grid Brussels, Electric Vehicles Stakeholder Workshop – Max Grünig 2/2/2011 19
www.ecologic.eu Impacts of EV charging 100% EVs ~ 223 million cars (EU 27 today) with 20 kWh/ 100km and 10,000km yearly mileage 2,000 kWh annual energy per car total fleet consumption 446 TWh i.e. total electricity increases by 13% total electricity need not likely to become an issue for a long time Brussels, Electric Vehicles Stakeholder Workshop – Max Grünig 2/2/2011 20
www.ecologic.eu Impacts of EV charging uncontrolled charging for a. 10 mio. EVs b. 20 mio EVs in Germany (source: WWF) severe impact on peak load Brussels, Electric Vehicles Stakeholder Workshop – Max Grünig 2/2/2011 21
www.ecologic.eu Impacts of EV charging phased charging for a. 10 mio. EVs b. 20 mio EVs in Germany (source WWF) still impact on peak load Brussels, Electric Vehicles Stakeholder Workshop – Max Grünig 2/2/2011 22
www.ecologic.eu Impacts of EV charging peak and off-peak charging for 1 million EVs off-peak charging successfully avoids an increase in peak load for small numbers of EVs Brussels, Electric Vehicles Stakeholder Workshop – Max Grünig 2/2/2011 23
www.ecologic.eu Impacts of EV charging no bottlenecks at the transmission level (even for uncontrolled charging in the initial time) potential bottlenecks at the distribution level constraints are more in the domain of the hourly load profile than in total energy consumption additional risks due to geographical clustering (suburbia, male, high income) similar charging patterns Brussels, Electric Vehicles Stakeholder Workshop – Max Grünig 2/2/2011 24
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