Integrating Warfighting Experimentation with Dynamic Modelling – A Practical Approach Martin Parr ++44 (0) 1252 455749 mcparr@dstl.gov.uk 1
Contents • Aims • Background • Implementation methods • Example: IADS Theme • Outline Example: Information and Intelligence Theme • Evaluation • Conclusions 2
Aims for the work • Add value to WFE using dynamic modelling • De-risk critical areas of the experiment • Provide a ‘dynamic data repository’ • Aspiration: Assess in advance the benefits that modelling may provide £ £ Value Value 3
Cultural issues …. What the analyst/modeller What the experiment manager said thought ‘ ’ ‘What is that chap in the corner doing?’ ‘This is completely ‘ …it is completely what …??’ straightforward …’ ‘…mmm… are lots of unknowns ‘This is completely here’ straightforward’ ‘Don’t worry – we are close to ‘He said that last week’ getting a solution’ 4
Introduction - OA - WFE and NITEworks Operational Analysis Modelling Historical Analysis Experimentation Joint War Fighting Static Dynamic Experimentation (WFE) 5
NITEworks AP Themes Networks Information MASC Indirect Fire Integration Joint Ops Picture Land Tac Picture 05 Naval MCM Kill Chain 1&2 Joint Intelligence Picture ISTAR 1&2 Medium Weight Capability B Classified 1&2 Command and Battlespace Medium Weight Management Capability A Effects Based (Land) Ops Logistics C2 Operational Intelligence Support Group People 6
Introduction (2) - Analysis Environments Constructive Wargaming Virtual Live Analysis of Analysis of Simulation or Simulation Simulation Current Ops Historical (OA) Ops modelling Weapon Simulated Simulated Simulated Simulated Real Real Effects Equipment Simulated Simulated Simulated Real Real Real Ability to Manipulate and Control People Real (abstract Simulated Real and Real Real Real engagem’t) & Simulated simulated 7
Modelling and Experimentation Experiment Coverage Experimentation Breadth M – – MEM Paradigm MEM Paradigm M M IADS, I2 M IADS, I2 Modelling Future Logs Future Logs M – – Vis Vis – – M M – – Vis Vis … … M 3 months Time 4 months 8
Model-Experiment-Model (M-E-M) Paradigm ONGOING & FUTURE THEMES Model-Experiment-Model Loop OUPUTS X X X X MODELLING X 9
Modelling Criteria Achievable Beneficial Valid Puzzle Method Selection What � How � Hard Methods Problem What � How � Mess Soft Methods What � How � 10
IADS Theme (1) Δ t ?? Potential Target 11 Time
IADS Theme (2) Assumptions: Process, workload Time Time Process Model (Simul8) Potential Target Detection Opportunities End to end process time System bottlenecks Entity Level Model (Matlab) 12 Time
IADS Theme - Summary • Results – Full automatic tracking of all targets within the chosen scenario – Given a less bright target: Link 16 bandwidth assessment showed little additional loading when a manual intervention was needed 13
Examples – MISTAR – Vessel Classification ISTAR Assets White or Red? White or Red? 14
Examples – MISTAR Probe Vessel 15
MISTAR Summary Achievable • Initial analysis delivered pre G2 Beneficial Valid • Conclusions reached • Analyst checks conducted about key system – enough to allow tools to bottlenecks highlight key bottlenecks 16
Situation Understanding Operational Landscapes: •Political Iraqi Problems: •Economic •Military • Insurgency Information and •Social Cultural • Terrorism •Legal, Ethical & Moral • Civil Unrest •Physical Intelligence (I2) • Ethnic Rivalry •Technological • Criminal Activity Theme Campaign Pan Adversary Characteristics • Asymmetric • Dynamic Enemy • Uncertain Or • Chaos • Complex Friend? • Novel • Ambiguous 17
class CCIRM (VKB & VAT) The process modelled by the I2 Theme Information Requester (from Context) provides intelligence queries to requires CC::Collection Plan SAM::Sensor Asset Management collection & IRM::IRM informs exploitation CC::Collection Nomination + Create Initial Collection Plan() + Monitor Collection Assets() from contracts + Establish & Update Intelligence Day() + Report Collection Asset Availability() tasks Sensor collection & + Check RFI Requirements() + Maintain Awareness of ISTAR Mission Status() + Check IR Against Collection Task() exploitation to + provides Combine RFI Details() + Manage Collection Information() + Create Nomination() Management provides + collected supplies Establish IR Management() + Manage Information fo Intelligence Day() + Report Nomination() information to + information to exploited Manage Expiry of Collection Task() + Manage, Maintain and Review Exploitation Status() + Track Nomination() Collection + product to Manage Expiry of Received IRs() Intelligence + Review Collection Nomination() + Manage Expiryr of Nominated RFIs() + Update Initial Collection Plan() + Coordination Manage IR Information() Requirements + Match Intelligence Products() informs 1..* + Monitor Changes to Information Requirements() Management 1..* + Pass RFI to Tasking() Collector::ISTAR Operation + Publish Information Product for Analysis() supples CC::Collection Mission + Raise RFI() target + Report Intelligence Product() + Maintain ISTAR Library Information() directs information to + Request Intelligent Report() + Manage ATO() + Establish Collection Missions() + Search for Similar RFI() Commander + Manage Informatioin() + Input Initial Collection Plan() informs + Task RFIs() + Manage ISTAR Assets() + Prepare Collection Mission Resourcing() (from Context) + Manage ISTAR Assets & Missions() + Re-Initialise Collection Missions() Targeteer requests + Plan ISTAR Mission() + Resource Collection Missions() information + Process Intelligence() (from Context) provides + Schedule Collection Missions() from + Re-Plan ISTAR Mission() IP::Intelligence Processing intelligence + Track Collection Schedule() + Schedule ISTAR Missions() to + Update Collection Mission Resourcing() provides information to + Acknowledge RFI Amendments() + Alert Analysts of New Intel Input() tasks Collection 1..* + Allocate Task to Analyst() 1..* provides intelligence to + Collate Outputs() Collector::ISTAR Task + Decompose & Allocate IRs() CC::Collection Task + Format & Publish Data() asks question of + Identify Areas of Research() + Execute ISTAR Operational Tasks() + Disseminate Collection Task Awareness() + Manage Intelligence Library() + Re-Initialise ISTAR Operations() asks question of + Establish Collection Tasks() + Produce Daily Brief() + Register ISTAR Dynamic Tasks() Customer + + Receive Informal Request() Initialise Collection Tasks() + Register ISTAR Operational Tasks() + + Review Analyst Output() Provide Collection Task Details() provides (from Context) + Resource ISTAR Operational Tasks() + + Review RFI Request() Raise New Collection Task() intelligence to + Support Intelligence Processing() interrupts Analysis Team 1..* 1..* 0..* 0..* IP::Intelligence Task IP::Intelligence Analyst SE::Intelligence Processing Support VAT::Analyse Information carries + Assess Collection Task Results() + Assess & Assimilate Knowledge() carries uses + + Establish Intelligence Tasks() Allocate Task to Intelligence Analyst() out + + Establish Support Elements() Brief Analysis Team() out + + Assess & Assimilate Information() Manage Intelligence Task Information() + + Manage Requests for Intelligence Information() Collate & Report Intelligence() + Prepare Intelligence Task Brief() + Establish Intelligence Analysts() + Manage Support Element Information() + Manage Analysis Team Information() + Register Intelligence Task() + Identify Outstanding Intelligence() + Search Extant Data() + Support Prepare Collection Request() + + Report Intelligence Research Tasks() Manage Analyst Information() + Register Analysis Team() + Prepare Analyst Resource Brief() + Release Analysis Team() Element + Raise Request for RFI() 1..* + Search Knowledge Base() Intelligence + Receive Tasking() + Search Data Stores() SE::Support Element Collection Task Processing Common support to ALL instantiations of Intelligence Processing + Collect Support Element Information() + Monitor Support Element Collection() + Register Support Element Collection Task() 18 + Report Collected Information to Support Element()
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