„Integrating renewable energies - estimating needs for flexibility, competition of technologies and the impact of grid extensions“ JRC Modelling Workshop 5 th December 2014 Frieder Borggrefe, Yvonne Scholz, Thomas Pregger German Aerospace Centre (DLR), Institute of Technical Thermodynamics
www.DLR.de • Chart 2 > Integrating renewable energy > Frieder Borggrefe > Petten December 4th 2014 Structure 1. Introduction: The DLR System Analysis Group 2. REMix: Load balancing and flexibility options 3. Load balancing with high shares of renewable energies, BMWi 2014 4. Results: Technology assesment 5. Critical discussion of modelling approaches
www.DLR.de • Chart 3 > Integrating renewable energy > Frieder Borggrefe > Petten December 4th 2014 1. Introduction DLR - Who we are Solar Research Aeronautics Space Research and Research Areas Wind Energy Research Technology Systems Analysis Transport Thermal & Chemical Energy Storage Space High & low Temp. Fuel Cells Administration Combustion & Gas Project Management Turbine Technologies Agency
www.DLR.de • Chart 4 > Integrating renewable energy > Frieder Borggrefe > Petten December 4th 2014 2. Energy systems model REMix: validation of power supply, load balancing and flexibility demand Installed Electricity demand HVDC lines Transmission grid capacities and long-range power based on current European power generation exchange and imports AC grid profiles from renewables Scenario analysis with model REMix Heat demand cost minimised supply in temporal & spatial resolution Flexible operation of CHP with: - heat storages model - peak boiler & electric GHI heaters Electric vehicles (EV) results: DNI BEV/hybrids: charging generation & storage strategies strategies, hourly battery Mo. 30.10 Di. 31.10 Mi. 1.11 Do. 2.11 Fr. 3.11 Sa. 4.11 So. 5.11 capacities of the fleet connected to the grid wind speed Conventional Storages Demand side -x pumped hydro generation management FCEV: flexible on-site H 2 run-off river nuclear, coal, compressed air industry & households, …. generation gas power plants hydrogen increases system efficiency source: DLR-TT
www.DLR.de • Chart 5 > Integrating renewable energy > Frieder Borggrefe > Petten December 4th 2014 Results: Structure of gross electricity generation in Scenario A 700 Hydrogen (CHP, GT)) Renewable 617 614 import 600 585 Gross electricity production, TWh/yr 574 Photovoltaic 564 562 558 power 548 Wind 500 Geothermal Hydropower Biomass & 400 biogenic wastes CHP - gas & coal Condensing - 300 gas & oil Condensing - lignite Condensing - hard coal 200 Nuclear power 100 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050
www.DLR.de • Chart 6 > Integrating renewable energy > Frieder Borggrefe > Petten December 4th 2014 3. Potential for load balancing to integrate large shares of REN-E Investigated Scenarios Reference Scenario Scenario „H2“ Scenario „Import“ No solar import, regional REN-E No solar import, reg. Solar CSP import Cons. grid No grid ext No grid ext Cons. grid 2050 2020 2030 2050 Opt. grid Opt. grid Opt. grid 2050 2050 2050 • How will flexible technologies be used and to what extend competition might arise between these technologies? • What characteristics define an efficient electricity mix for the integration of large shares of renewables?
www.DLR.de • Chart 7 > Integrating renewable energy > Frieder Borggrefe > Petten December 4th 2014 REMix OptiMo Nordel Linear energy systems modelling UK_IE Denmark_W BeNe Lux PolCzeSlk Germany Configuration Austria France Switz- Investments: yes Aly Iberia Configuration: LP (Linear programming) Time slices: 1 Year, 8760 days MorAlgTun Regions: 16 Technologies Model variables: Electricity Heat CHP 20 23 - Generation-, transport and storage- capacities Conventionals 40 - Electricity generation DSM 30 - Transport and storage Storages 5 - Heat generation and storage Renewables 4 - Excess capacity CSP 2 Electric vehicles 1 Total 102 23 Time steps All hours of one year 8760h
www.DLR.de • Chart 8 > Integrating renewable energy > Frieder Borggrefe > Petten December 4th 2014 REMix: Data Feed-in from fluctuating renewables Reference scenario: No additional o flexibility options Flexible CHP based on thermal + storage, conventional and electric peak load boiler Additional load management options ++ Heat pumps Electric vehicles - flexible charging Additional construction of electricity +++ storages (e.g. CAES)
REMix: Data Identification of flexiblity from heat demand • GIS-based method with 1 x 1 km² area pixel • Upper bound for district heating grids Demand per capita Density of heat suppy Reference scenario: No additional o flexibility options Flexible CHP based on thermal + storage, conventional and electric peak load boiler Additional load managment options ++ Heat pumps Electric vehicles - flexbile charging Additional construction of electricity +++ storages (CAES- Storages) District heating • 23 technologies • Potential district heating areas • Annual demand • Heat density • Costs
www.DLR.de • Chart 10 > Integrating renewable energy > Frieder Borggrefe > Petten December 4th 2014 REMix: Data Identification of flexible load 30 different endusers with the ability for load shifting and load shedding Theoretic potential for DSM in 2010 Reference scenario: No additional o flexibility options Flexible CHP based on thermal + storage, conventional and electric peak load boiler Additional load managment options ++ Heat pumps Electric vehicles - flexbile charging Additional construction of electricity +++ storages (CAES- Storages)
www.DLR.de • Chart 11 > Integrating renewable energy > Frieder Borggrefe > Petten December 4th 2014 REMix: Data Identification of flexible load 30 different endusers with the ability for load shifting and load shedding Theoretic potential for DSM in 2010
www.DLR.de • Chart 12 > Integrating renewable energy > Frieder Borggrefe > Petten December 4th 2014 Investigated Szenarios Potential for load balancing to integrate large shares of REN-E Reference Scenario Scenario „H2“ Scenario „Import“ No solar import, regional REN-E No solar import, reg. Solar CSP import Cons. grid No grid ext No grid ext Cons. grid 2050 2020 2030 2050 Opt. grid Opt. grid Opt. grid 2050 2050 2050 • How will flexible technologies be used and to what extend competition might arise between these technologies? • What characteristics define an efficient electricity mix for the integration of large shares of renewables?
www.DLR.de • Chart 13 > Integrating renewable energy > Frieder Borggrefe > Petten December 4th 2014 4. Results: Indicator 1 - annual shedded energy fluctuating renewables in TWh Annual shedded energy from Optional grid - 47% Reference scenario: No additional o flexibility options extension Flexible CHP based on thermal + storage, conventional and electric peak load boiler Additional load management options ++ Heat pumps Electric vehicles - flexible charging Additional construction of electricity +++ storages (CAES) Optim. grid No grid extent. No grid ext 2050 2050 Reference scenario Importance of the grid: Model endogenous grid extension significantly reduces demand for storage
www.DLR.de • Chart 14 > Integrating renewable energy > Frieder Borggrefe > Petten December 4th 2014 4. Results: Indicator 1 - annual shedded energy fluctuating renewables in TWh Annual shedded energy from - 29% Reference scenario: No additional CHP – plants o flexibility options Flexible CHP based on thermal + storage, conventional and electric - 28% peak load boiler Additional load management options ++ Heat pumps Electric vehicles - flexible charging Additional construction of electricity +++ storages (CAES) Optim. grid No grid extent. No grid ext 2050 2050 Reference scenario Runner up: CHP – plants can significantly reduce load shedding
www.DLR.de • Chart 15 > Integrating renewable energy > Frieder Borggrefe > Petten December 4th 2014 4. Results: Indicator 1 - annual shedded energy fluctuating renewables in TWh Annual shedded energy from Reference scenario: No additional o flexibility options Flexible CHP based on thermal + storage, conventional and electric peak load boiler Additional load management options ++ Heat pumps Electric vehicles - flexible charging Opt. grid No grid ext Opt. grid No grid ext Opt. grid Additional construction of electricity +++ 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 storages (CAES) CHP import Reference scenario H2 scenario
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