Integrated Resources Plan Special Committee Item 6a July 28, 2020 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Integrated Resources Plan Special Committee Item 6a July 28, 2020

IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 2 July 28, 2020

2015 IRP (and previous IRPs) identified resource development needs under fixed assumptions and hydrologic uncertainty SCAG/SANDAG demographic forecasts SWP and CRA under specified operational and regulatory conditions Local Supplies from MA survey Hydrology/Climate based on 1922-2012 historical sample (no climate change) Resource portfolios identified to cover the gaps IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 3 July 28, 2020

IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 4 July 28, 2020

Metropolitan Service Area 22 Population not growing 21 as quickly as expected 20 Millions 19 18 17 1996 IRP 2004 IRP 2010 IRP 2015 IRP 2018 Reported (Population Projections from SCAG/SANDAG) Population IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 5 July 28, 2020

Create four scenarios to provide a wider view of the future Conduct four gap analyses Identify resource portfolios that cover the four gap analyses Guide decision-making under a more comprehensive adaptive management strategy using information gleaned from the scenarios Single scenario approach limits awareness of potential risks and needs IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 6 July 28, 2020

Process Recap Qualitative – Quantitative Assessment Linking the Drivers to supply/demand impacts Collaborative Process IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 7 July 28, 2020

Identify Prepare Relationships Detailed and Narratives Quantitative Assumptions 1 2 3 4 Review Test Portfolio Develop Establish Performance Performance Draft Adaptive Drivers of Scenario Management Under the Measures for Change Framework Strategy Scenario Each Portfolio (Uncontrollable) and Scenario Assumptions e.g. ESA restrictions Policy in the Delta, Recession, Others Develop Test Iterative Portfolios Modeling (Combinations and Policy of Options) Discussion e.g. Delta Conveyance, Regional Recycled Water, Conservation # = Process Steps Initiatives, Others IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 8 July 28, 2020

Identify Prepare Relationships Detailed and Narratives Quantitative Assumptions 1 2 3 4 Review Test Portfolio Develop Establish Performance Performance Draft Adaptive Drivers of Scenario Management Under the Measures for Change Framework Strategy Scenario Each Portfolio (Uncontrollable) and Scenario Assumptions e.g. ESA restrictions Policy in the Delta, Recession, Others Develop Test Iterative Portfolios Modeling (Combinations and Policy of Options) Discussion e.g. Delta Conveyance, Regional Recycled Water, Conservation # = Process Steps Initiatives, Others IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 9 July 28, 2020

Scenario planning allows the IRP to continue Metropolitan’s strategy for navigating the challenges facing our water future The IRP provides the vision for adaptively managing through the change that is coming IRP Goal: Regional Water Reliability How do we measure reliability? Evaluating whether or not we have enough water to meet demands IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 10 July 28, 2020

6.0 5.0 4.0 Million Acre-Feet 3.0 2.0 1996 IRP 2004 IRP 1.0 2010 IRP Retail MI Demand 2015 IRP 0.0 IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 11 July 28, 2020

6.0 5.0 A 4.0 B C Million Acre-Feet 3.0 D 2.0 1.0 Retail MI Demand Scenario Forecast 0.0 IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 12 July 28, 2020

A Broad View Will Better Prepare us for the Future IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 13 July 28, 2020

How Do We Get a Broad View? High Importance Low Uncertainty Low High IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 14 July 28, 2020

Identifying the most impactful Drivers High Drivers that are most impactful to supply and Important demand drivers that are predictable Importance Less important drivers with varying levels of predictability Low Uncertainty Low High IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 15 July 28, 2020

Inclusive Process with Member Agency Feedback Survey IMPORTANCE Scale Supply/Demand IMPACT on Supply/Demand Qualitative/ Quantitative Assessment UNCERTAINTY IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 16 July 28, 2020

CONSTRUCTING SCENARIOS - QUALITATIVE/ QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 17 July 28, 2020

Examine and organize the drivers Determine supply and demand links to the drivers Identify methods and tools to quantify the links to the drivers Identify data and input needs Open and iterative process IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 18 July 28, 2020

Supply – Demand Links Purpose of drivers is to recognize outside factors that affect supply and/or demand IRP analysis makes explicit how these drivers affect supply/demand by assessing Supply-Demand Links • Which drivers are quantifiable • How can we quantify? • Calculate with existing models, OR • Approximate where models are not available or not flexible • Relates with geographic location IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 19 July 28, 2020

Model Parameters OUTPUT INPUT Change to Reflect: Outcomes Reflect: • • Economic Outlook Demand Impacts • • Demographic Changes Supply Impacts • Climate Outcomes • Outdoor Water Use Change to Reflect: • Behavioral Change • Response to Price • Regulatory Outlook • Operational Requirements • System Changes IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 20 July 28, 2020

Initial Screening: Supply – Demand Links For each “Yes” How does it affect supply/demand? What is the scale of the effect? Can we quantify the effect? IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 21 July 28, 2020

EXAMPLES 9 IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 22 July 28, 2020

Demographic Changes - Uncertainty Regarding Population Projections Climate Change – Warming Temperatures Legislative and Regulatory – Emerging Regulatory Requirements IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 23 July 28, 2020

Example 1: Impacts on CATEGORY Supply/ DRIVER Demand LINK Demographic Uncertainty Regarding Changes Changes in MWD Population Occupied Service Projections Households Area IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 24 July 28, 2020

Example 1: Impacts on CATEGORY Supply/ DRIVER Demand LINK Demographic Uncertainty Regarding Changes Changes in MWD Population Occupied Service Projections Households Area SUPPLY Does this driver affect supply? NO What is the scale of effect? N/A Can you quantify the supply effect? N/A IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 25 July 28, 2020

Example 1: Impacts on CATEGORY Supply/ DRIVER Demand LINK Demographic Uncertainty Regarding Changes Changes in MWD Population Occupied Service Projections Households Area REPLENISHMENT DEMAND Does this driver affect demand? NO What is the scale of effect? N/A Can you quantify the demand effect? N/A IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 26 July 28, 2020

Example 1: Impacts on CATEGORY Supply/ DRIVER Demand LINK Demographic Uncertainty Regarding Changes Changes in MWD Population Occupied Service Projections Households Area CONSUMPTIVE DEMAND Does this driver affect demand? YES What is the scale of effect? Large Can you quantify the demand effect? YES IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 27 July 28, 2020

Example 1: Impacts on CATEGORY Supply/ DRIVER Demand LINK Demographic Uncertainty Regarding Changes Changes in MWD Population Occupied Service Projections Households Area CONSUMPTIVE DEMAND How does it affect What is the How can you quantify the demand? Scale Effect? demand effect? Changes in number of Large Econometric model households Changes in number of Large Econometric model people per household IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 28 July 28, 2020

Example 1: Retail M&I Demand 5.0 4.0 Million Acre-Feet 3.0 A 10% change in households and their occupants result in a 10% 2.0 change in retail demand (all other changes held constant). 1.0 0.0 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 10% Less Households 2015 IRP 10% More Households IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 29 July 28, 2020

Example 2: Impacts on CATEGORY Supply/ DRIVER Demand LINK Climate Warming Change Changing SWP Temperatures Runoff Watershed Patterns CONSUMPTIVE DEMAND Does this driver affect demand? NO What is the scale of effect? N/A Can you quantify the demand effect? N/A IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 30 July 28, 2020

Example 2: Impacts on CATEGORY Supply/ DRIVER Demand LINK Climate Warming Change Changing SWP Temperatures Runoff Watershed Patterns REPLENISHMENT DEMAND Does this driver affect demand? NO What is the scale of effect? N/A Can you quantify the demand effect? N/A IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 31 July 28, 2020

Example 2: Impacts on CATEGORY Supply/ DRIVER Demand LINK Climate Warming Change Changing SWP Temperatures Runoff Watershed Patterns SUPPLY Does this driver affect supply? YES What is the scale of effect? Large Can you quantify the supply effect? YES IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 32 July 28, 2020