Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 22: Climate Policy Scenarios for Stabilization and In Transition December 12-14, 2006, Tsukuba Integrated Assessment PHOENIX - Land-use Modeling and Global Warming Impacts on Agriculture - Keigo Akimoto, Shunsuke Mori and Toshimasa Tomoda Systems Analysis Group Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE)
RITE’s Study for Climate Change Assessment - Addressing the Article 2 - Post-Kyoto frameworks - Stabilization scenarios - Assessments of Regional and sectoral frameworks, e.g. APP - Transition scenarios Integrated assessment PHOENIX - DNE21 Model: -Y2200 - DNE21+ Model: -Y2030/2050 10 world regions 77 world regions; - Non-CO 2 GHG Models detailed bottom-up energy modeling - Climate change model (MAGICC+GCM results) - DEARS Model: -Y2050 - Global warming impact models 18 world regions; - Water resources 18 non-energy sectors (GTAP base); - Agriculture (GAEZ base) bottom-up energy modeling - Human health - Biodiversity (Biome base) Others - Sea level rise - DNE21-ITC model - Land use models 4 world regions - Country model for Japan - GLUE Model: bioenergy pot. - Forestation pot. estim. model focusing particularly on CCS
Land-use Model – GLUE (1/2) Biomass flows considered in GLUE 18 world divided regions world divided regions 18
Land-use Model – GLUE (2/2) Estimation procedures for bioenergy potentials in GLUE
Estimated Bioenergy Supply Potentials by Region Other world 4000 Australia & New Zealand Bioenergy supply potential of dry 3500 Turkey & Middle East biomass residues (Mtoe/year) ASEAN & Korea 3000 India China 2500 Japan South African 2000 Central African 1500 North Africa Former Soviet Union 1000 Eastern Europe Western Europe 500 Rest of South America 0 Brazil 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Mexico & Central America Canada YEAR USA
Bioenergy supply potential of dry biomass residues in Y2050 (Mtoe/year) 100 200 300 400 500 600 Estimated Potentials of Bioenergy Supply 0 USA Canada Mexico & Central America Brazil Rest of South America Western Europe Eastern Europe Former Soviet Union Region North Africa in 2050 Central African South African Japan China India ASEAN & Korea Turkey & Middle East Australia & New Zealand Other world harvesting residues Industrial roundwood residues Fuelwood harvesting Black liquor Sawmill residues Paper scrap Timber scrap residues Cereal harvesting harvestingresidues Sugarcane Bagasse
Estimations of Carbon Sequestration Potential by Afforestation/Rehabilitation Area (Mha) 面積 ( 百万 ha) 500-1000 450-480 単位面積当りのバイオマス資源 (ton/ha) Phytomass stocks (ton/ha) 400-500 420-450 390-420 300-400 360-390 150-300 330-360 50-150 300-330 25-50 270-300 240-270 12.5-25 210-240 5-12.5 180-210 2.5-5 150-180 120-150 0-2.5 0 - 100 100 - 200 200 - 300 300 - 400 400 - 500 500 - 600 600 - 700 700 - 800 800 - 900 900 -1000 1000 -1100 1100 -1200 1200 -1300 1300 -1400 1400 -1500 1500 -1600 1600 -1700 1700 -1800 1800 -1900 1900 -2000 2000 -2100 2100 -2200 2200 -2300 2300 -2400 2400 -2500 2500 -2600 2600 -2700 2700 -2800 2800 -2900 2900 -3000 90-120 60-90 30-60 0-30 Precipitation (mm/yr) 年間降水量 (mm/yr) 600 Averaged stocks of phytomass (ton/ha) 500 The area having the stock under the averaged � 400 stock for each precipitation level is assumed to achieve the increase in the stock up to the 300 averaged one by afforestation/rehabilitation. 200 Land use, soil types, slope, temperature � 100 conditions are also considered for the estimation. 0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 Annual precipitation (mm/yr)
Estimated Carbon Sequestration Potential by Afforestation/Rehabilitation in 1990 The global potentials of carbon sequestration: 170 GtC GtC The global potentials of carbon sequestration: 170
Cost-effective Options for Emission Reductions at 550 ppmv by Using DNE21+ Model 20000 Net emission in Reference Case Energy Saving With ET CO 2 emissions & reductions (MtC/yr) Fuel Switching among Fossil Fuels Nuclear Power 15000 Hydro Wind Photovoltaics 10000 Bioenergy Forestation CO2 Seq - Oil Well (EOR) CO2 Seq - Depleted Gas Well 5000 CO2 Seq - Deep Saline Aquifer Net emission for the stabilization at 550 ppmv CO2 Seq - Coalbed (ECBM) Net Emission 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year 20000 Energy Saving Net emission in Reference Case CO 2 emissions & reductions (MtC/yr) Fuel Switching among Fossil Fuels Nuclear Power 15000 Hydro Wind Photovoltaics Without ET Bioenergy 10000 Forestation Annex I: 60% CO2 Seq - Oil Well (EOR) reduction in 2050 CO2 Seq - Depleted Gas Well 5000 CO2 Seq - Deep Saline Aquifer Net emission for the stabilization at 550 ppmv CO2 Seq - Coalbed (ECBM) CO2 Seq - Ocean Net Emission 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year
PHOENIX Project ♦ PHOENIX: Pathways toward Harmony Of Environment, Natural resources and Industry compleX ♦ Integrated assessment of global warming impacts, adaptations and mitigations ♦ Addressing the ultimate target of Article 2 of UNFCCC
Assessment Procedure in PHOENIX Emission to be suppressed until Emission to be suppressed catastrophic events do not occur considering mitigation costs, regardless of mitigation costs vulnerable regions etc. Reference emission Tolerable emission pathways pathways (No climate policy) (Long-term target) Type II events*; Expert judgment (Finally, prevented to occur based on world wide (Precaution approach) agreement) Using a high CS value Eval. of climate change Eval. of mitigation measures Using a medium CS value Comprehensive Assess. Type I events Eval. of impacts Eval. of adapt. measures * Type II: abrupt and catastrophic events (THC, WAIS etc.)
The Clim ate Model - I ntegration of SCM and the results of AOGCM - ECHAM4, MIROC etc. AOGCM Results (grid data) Monthly average Monthly average . . . . . temperature precipitation Radiative Atmospheric CO 2 by grid by grid CO Emission 2 Forcing of CO 2 Concentration Radiative Forcing of Ozone Land Oceans Surface Global & Radiative Annual Mean SOx Emission Forcing of SOx Temperature Rise Methane Methane Radiative Forcing Emission Concentration of Methane N O Radiative 2 N O Emission 2 Concentration Forcing of N O 2 Sea Level Change Halocarbons Halocarbons Radiative Forcing (27 types) (27 types) of Halocarbons Emissions Concentration (27 types) Radiative Forcing of H O 2 Total Radiative Forcing SCM: MAGICC base
CO 2 Concentration & Tem perature Change Atmospheric CO 2 concentration 1100 SRES B2-base Atmospheric CO 2 concentration (ppmv) WGI S650 900 WGI S550 WGI S450 700 500 Global mean temperature change 6 300 SRES B2-base 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120 2140 2160 2180 2200 from the pre-industrial level (degC) Global mean temperature change WGI S650 (Non-CO2 GHG: B2) 5 Year WGI S550 (Non-CO2 GHG: B2) WGI S450 (Non-CO2 GHG: B2) 4 3 2 1 0 Climate sensitivity: 2.5 ºC 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120 2140 2160 2180 2200 Year
Annual Mean Tem perature Change in 2 1 5 0 SRES B2-base Reference GCM results: ECHAM4 Global mean temperature change +4.2 ºC from pre-industrial levels IPCC WGI S550 Global mean temperature change +2.7 ºC from pre-industrial levels
GCM results: ECHAM4 Annual Mean Precipitation Change in 2 1 5 0 IPCC WGI S550 SRES B2-base Reference
Overview of Crop Potential Model ♦ The model is based on the GAEZ (Global Agro-ecological Zones) framework developed by IIASA/FAO. ♦ Crop production potentials are estimated by matching between climate, soil condition etc. and characteristics of crops. ♦ AEZ has a detailed database of crop characteristics. ♦ AEZ provides the Leaf area index (LAI) and harvest index depending on the agriculture input levels. ♦ Consideration of the productivity increase (LAI and harvest index) of agriculture depending on economic levels ♦ Maximizing the production potentials considering the changes in implantation crops and month, which can evaluate the adaptation effects for global warming
Estim ation Procedure of Production Estim ation Procedure of Production Potentials of Crops Potentials of Crops Historical monthly averagecloud cover From Climate Model Historical monthly Max/Min temperature Potential Monthly average Evapotranspiration Temperature Max temperature Min temperature Monthly average Actual precipitation Evapotranspiration Monthly average wind speed Elevation Crop yields potentials Terrain slopes Soils Crop characteristics
IPCC WGI S550 Change in Production Potential of W heat in 2 1 5 0 SRES B2-base Reference
Optim al I m plantation Month of W heat Year 2150: SRES B2-base Reference e.g., The optimal implantation month shifts from April-May in 1990 to January- February in 2150 Year 2150: IPCC WGI S550 Year 1990
IPCC WGI S550 Change in Production Potential of Rice in 2 1 5 0 SRES B2-base Reference
Optim al I m plantation Month of Rice Year 2150: SRES B2-base Reference e.g., The optimal implantation month shifts from April in 1990 to March in 2150 Year 2150: IPCC WGI S550 Year 1990
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