Input Committee Meeting May 30, 2018
24 Miles Up, Felix Baumgartner Jumps!
Agenda Introductions and Opening Comments Expected Outcomes for Master Planning Process Project Approach and Schedule Role of the Input Committee Inventory of Existing Conditions Key Planning Issues Identification Forecasts of Aviation Activity Questions & Comments Next Steps
Project Team Airport Company Airport Commission Master Plan Input Committee Federal Aviation Administration Minnesota Department of Transportation Consultants Mead & Hunt Volaire Aviation Consulting Leibowitz and Horton Airport Management Consultants
Airport Facilities
Terminal Area Facilities
Master Plan Statement of Policy Anticipate What We Think Will Happen Influence What We Want to Happen
Expected Outcomes Comprehensive Recommendations for Layout of Future Airport Facilities Reasonable Long-Term Capital Improvement Plan Appropriate Documentation of Considerations and Influences FAA Approved Airport Layout Plan
Public Outreach Airport Company/Airport Commission Briefings City Council Briefings Input Committee Technical Committee Public Information Meetings
Project Approach Follow FAA Guidance Building Block Process Inventory Forecasts Facilities Needs Determination Alternatives and Development Plan Formulation Financial Plan
Project Schedule
Role of Input Committee Committee is made up of a variety of Airport interest groups Provide feedback on draft work products from your perspective Not a voting group, consensus is not required, but your INPUT is CRITICAL !
Inventory of Existing Conditions Airport Background Airport Facilities Inventory Airside Facilities Landside Facilities Airspace System and Naviads Airport Environs Issues Summary
Key Planning Issues Discussion Customer Experience Refined Forecast of Aviation Activity Including Air Service Growth Potential Optimize Airfield Layout Optimize Landside Configuration Long-Term terminal area plan Air cargo and consideration of potential increased activity Accommodate pent-up demand for general aviation hangars & flight training Accommodation of non-aeronautical development – revenue generation Financial Sustainability
Airport Facilities
Terminal Area Facilities
Forecasts of Aviation Activity Passenger Enplanements Commercial Aircraft Operations Cargo Activity General Aviation Activity Critical Aircraft Identification
Enplanement 300,000 Explanements 250,000 Forecast 200,000 150,000 100,000 Several methods used to examine 50,000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 enplanements Historic Market Aero TAF - Reg TAF - Nat TAF Several forecasts are reasonable given past trends but unable to TAF Great TAF Market Aerospace Lakes Year National FAA TAF Share Forecast Regional account for market changes Forecast Forecast* 2017 145,517 145,517 145,517 145,517 145,517 2017 TAF selected as the preferred 2022 172,276 158,219 157,742 159,581 208,557 forecast 2027 183,965 172,029 170,993 175,004 227,238 2032 196,967 187,044 185,358 191,919 248,168 2037 210,680 203,371 200,930 210,467 270,230 CAGR 1.87% 1.69% 1.63% 1.86% 3.14%
Commercial 58.1 54.0 51.6 10,000 60.0 46.6 46.5 45.4 46.4 47.0 49.4 48.7 51.6 Forecast 50.0 8,000 40.0 6,000 Total number of operations based 30.0 4,000 20.0 on 2017 TAF 2,000 10.0 0 0.0 Types of operations have been 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Air Carrier Air Taxi Commuter Average Seats changed to reflect future trends 50 seat aircraft increase expected Year Air Carrier Commuter Air Taxi Total 2017 2,774 5,152 3,357 11,283 to be temporary before transition 2022 5,092 1,273 4,244 10,609 2027 5,647 513 4,107 10,268 2032 6,173 220 4,630 11,023 2037 6,736 0 5,081 11,817
Cargo 30,000,000 1,400 58.1 54.0 51.6 10,000 60.0 46.6 46.5 45.4 46.4 47.0 49.4 48.7 51.6 1,200 25,000,000 Forecast 50.0 8,000 1,000 20,000,000 40.0 Operations 800 6,000 15,000,000 Cargo Majority of cargo arrives and 30.0 600 4,000 10,000,000 400 20.0 departs on FedEx 2,000 5,000,000 200 10.0 0 0 0 0.0 Average freight per flight has 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Enplaned Deplaned FedEx Ops Air Carrier Air Taxi Commuter Average Seats increased recently Average freight applied to future FedEx Total Average Freight Year Operations Freight per Flight increase in operations 2016 654 23,756,865 36,325 2022 970 36,489,759 37,620 2027 1,237 46,537,355 37,620 2032 1,470 55,290,835 37,620 2037 1,604 60,331,956 37,620
General Aviation 200,000 40,000 Turbine and Rotor Aircraft 35,000 150,000 30,000 Trends Piston Aircraft 25,000 100,000 20,000 15,000 Piston aircraft expected to 50,000 10,000 5,000 decrease as recreational flight 0 0 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 becomes less common Piston Turbine Rotor Turbine and rotor aircraft 80 70 expected to increase with 60 Based Aircraft 50 business growth 40 30 20 10 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Single Jet Multi Helicopter Other
Based Aircraft Forecast 100 90 80 Forecasts within close 70 proximity 60 50 Not all able to account for 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Total TAF Market Trend Population Income changing market conditions Regression Regression - Market Regression - Year TAF Trend Multivariate able to be - Income Multivariate Share Population 2017 65 65 65 65 65 65 updated and reflect 2022 68 72 74 77 72 72 2027 72 76 78 82 76 77 socioeconomic conditions 2032 77 79 82 87 79 80 2037 82 83 86 92 84 85 CAGR 1.17% 1.23% 1.40% 1.73% 1.27% 1.35%
General Aviation Forecast GA Local Operations Year Based Aircraft Operations 2017 64 8.878 Operations forecasted 2022 69 9,146 independently by type 2027 73 9,543 2032 75 9,809 Local operations forecasted by 2037 80 10,471 operations per based aircraft GA Itinerant Operations Itinerant operations forecasted RST Itinerant MN Itinerant RST Market Year Operations Operations Share by increasing market share to 2017 16,113 96,157 16.8% 2022 17,755 98,194 18.1% historic peak 2027 19,464 100,295 19.4% 2032 21,259 102,544 20.7% 2037 23,152 104,965 22.1%
General Aviation Forecast Year Turboprop Jet Helicopter Total 2017 1 0 0 1 Mayo Clinic operations expected 2022 2 0 2 4 2027 2 0 4 6 to increase as fleet increases 2032 2 1 4 7 and moves to airport 2037 2 1 5 8 All operations combined for 40,000 35,000 total 30,000 Operations 25,000 20,000 Year Total 15,000 2017 25,816 10,000 2022 28,801 5,000 2027 31,508 0 2032 34,218 2037 37,073 Itinerant Based Mayo CAGR 2017-2037 1.83%
Other Forecasts Total Airport Year Total IFR % VFR VFR % Ops Military operations defer 2017 39,170 21,239 54.2% 17,931 45.8% to the TAF as they are 2022 42,306 21,831 51.6% 20,475 48.4% 2027 44,670 23,051 51.6% 21,619 48.4% driven by federal policy 2032 48,137 24,840 51.6% 23,297 48.4% Ten-year historical average 2037 51,786 26,723 51.6% 25,063 48.4% applied to determine Year Itinerant Local Total Military 2017 907 1,989 2,896 future IFR operations 2022 907 1,989 2,896 2027 907 1,989 2,896 2032 907 1,989 2,896 2037 907 1,989 2,896
AAC Vref / Approach Speed Critical Aircraft A Less than 91 knots B 91 knots or more, but less than 121 knots Many facility dimensions C 121 knots or more, but less than 141 knots and safety areas determined D 141 knots or more, but less than 166 knots by the critical aircraft E 166 knots or more The most demanding ADG Tail Height Wingspan I Less than 20 feet Less than 49 feet aircraft, or family or aircraft, II 20 – 29 feet 49 – 78 feet with over 500 annual III 30 – 44 feet 79 – 117 feet operations is selected IV 45 – 59 feet 118 – 170 feet V 60 – 65 feet 171 – 213 feet VI 66 – 79 feet 214 – 261 feet
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