Innovations in population statistics What weve done and whats to - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Innovations in population statistics What we’ve done and what’s to come Ian Cope Director, Population & Demography, ONS 1

Population and migrations statistics at ONS: Overview • My role • About the Population and Demography directorate at ONS • Approximately 400 people, producing range of outputs including Population Estimates, the Census and Life Events 2

I’ll be talking about innovations in… • 2011 Census • Population Estimates and Vital Statistics • Data Accessibility • ‘Beyond 2011’ 3

2011 Census 4

New questions to reflect changes in who we are, how we live and information needs • National identity • Main language and ‘How well can you speak English’ • Passports held (citizenship) • Second residences • Intention to stay and when last arrived • Number of bedrooms 5

New Questions National identity 6

New Questions Language 7

Percentage of the population speaking English as a main language 8

It also enables others to produce some fascinating data visualisations Created by Oliver O’Brien (UCL Geography,/ UCL CASA) 9

New Questions Passports 10

Interactive outputs clearly show some interesting insights 11 http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/interactive/census-map-3-1---country-of-birth-and-passports---2011-only/index.html

Alternative population bases • The standard information produced is on a usual resident basis • However, to plan many services there is a need for information on alternative population bases (e.g. for planning daytime emergency services in central London) • 2011 Census information was made available for the following alternative population bases: • Short-term residents • Workday population (known as ‘daytime population’ in 2001) • Workplace population • Out of term population 12

Short term residents • Population resident in an area who are non-UK born and intend to be resident in the country for 3-12 months. • Derived from the ‘length of stay in the UK’ question asked of non-UK born residents who arrived within the last year. 13

Short term residents Countries of birth Age distribution Age distribution of non-UK born short-term Top ten countries of birth for STRs in England residents compared to usual residents in and Wales, 2011 England and Wales, 2011 Nearly 70% (135,000) of short term residents were aged 15 to 29, compared to 20% (11.2m) India, China and the United States are the 3 most of the usual resident population popular countries for both country of birth and passports held for STRs. 14

Short term residents Regional variations by sex Proportions Short-term residents per 10,000 usual residents • Percentage of national total STRs by sex for England and Wales English regions and Wales, 2011 Wales South West South East London East of England West Midlands East Midlands Yorkshire and the Humber North West North East 0 20 40 60 80 100 Percentage of national total STRs by sex for English regions • The 2011 Census recorded 195,000 non-UK born and Wales, 2011 short-term residents (STRs) in England and Wales • This is 35 STRs per 10,000 usual residents • The ratio for London was more than twice the national level at 84 STRs per 10,000 usual residents 15

Workplace population • Population working in an area based on workplace location • A geographic redistribution of those in employment to their place of work • Derived from the ‘workplace address’ question asked of those who are in employment 16

Workplace population Highest level of Age of workplace qualification population The workforce in London was younger, with 54 % of the workplace population aged 39 or below, compared with 45% in the rest of England and Wales London had a high proportion of level 4 and above qualifications – almost 50 % 17

Interactive workplace population data 18 http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/interactive/census-2011--workplace-population-maps/index.html

Out of term population • Population resident in an area out of term-time • A geographic redistribution of the student population to where they live out of term-time • Derived from the ‘second address‘ question for full-time students who live at a different address out of term-time, and their reason for stay at second address 19

Out of term population How many? Biggest losses - LAs The out of term population of England and Oxford and Cambridge had out of term Wales was 56.0 million in 2011; this was populations more than 10% below their usually 125,000 lower than the usually resident resident populations. population. The difference was due to residents of England and Wales with an out of term address in Scotland, Northern Ireland or outside the UK. Of these, 81% (101,000) were aged 16 to 24. 800,000 780,000 760,000 740,000 720,000 700,000 680,000 660,000 Age Age Age Age Age Age Age Age Age Age 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 Usual residents Out of Term 20

Second residences Waiting for new image I have sent myself to arrive in mailbox 21 http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/interactive/census-map-1-3/index.html

2011 Census Analysis 62 articles including: Category Analytical • Coastal communities articles • The largest health gaps between Health and social care 16 socio-economic classes are found in big cities Migration and demography 19 • Gender gap in unpaid care provision Ethnicity, national identity, 8 language and religion • Growth in cycling in major cities identified by the 2011 Census Labour market, housing and 10 qualifications • Characteristics of home workers Stepfamilies, 2011 • Travel to work and other 9 geographic analysis • 170 years of industrial change across England and Wales • A century of home ownership in England and Wales 22

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A recent example 24

An international context Provision of data to Eurostat • 60 data hypercubes • 21 quality cubes • Information held locally and accessed by Eurostat via a web service (API) 25

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Availability of European level data also puts our information in context Population growth rate 28

Innovations in Population Estimates and Vital Statistics • Migration Statistics Improvement Programme • Migration Statistics Quarterly Report • Changes to the International Passenger Survey (IPS) • Longitudinal Study 29

Migration Statistics Improvement Programme (MSIP) Situation before MSIP IPS Census and, LFS and IPS used to create distributions Migration and Population Statistics Complex methodology Confused messages between departments 30

Impact of improved distribution of international immigration on inter-censal discrepancies (E&W) 400 400 350 350 300 300 Average absolute distance Average Absolute distance 250 250 200 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 0 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 Age in 2011 Age in 2011 Original Females Improved Females Original Males Improved Males Note. For each single year of age this chart shows the average absolute distance between the MYEs and the Census. A smaller distance means the MYEs are closer to the Census. 31

MSIP - Summary • Now • Before-MSIP Improved IPS IPS Use of administrative Census and, LFS data and IPS used to create distributions Migration and Migration and Transparent Population Population methodology Statistics Statistics Complex methodology Coherent reporting Confused messages between Data sharing departments 32

Migration Reporting – how it was • 40 separate publication dates from government departments in 2007 • Published data sometimes gave conflicting messages as a result of different • Definitions • Time periods • Coverage 33

Coherent Migration Reporting • Migration related statistics published on pre- announced quarterly dates (DWP, HO, NRS & ONS) • Published in the Migration Statistics Quarterly Report (MSQR) • Single point of access (ONS website) • Analysis and commentary to outputs (inc definitional differences) 34

MSQR improvements • In 2011 customers told us that: • the MSQR had become too long • it was difficult to identify key messages • more analysis and commentary were needed • As a result: • MSQR was restructured and provided increased information on reliability, and more detail on LTIM • Enhancements were made to quarterly charts and underlying data published on stocks • Reports on emigration and population by COB and nationality were included • In 2014 a further review resulted in a reduction in bulletin length 35